ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[dwg71]

gfdl still mississippi

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 291130
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV 07L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 29

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.9 77.8 275./ 7.0
6 18.0 78.6 280./ 7.4
12 18.5 79.1 316./ 7.6
18 19.1 80.0 301./ 9.8
24 19.9 80.6 323./10.1
30 20.9 81.6 316./13.8
36 21.9 82.6 314./14.0
42 23.0 83.6 317./14.0
48 24.0 84.5 319./13.5
54 25.1 85.4 321./13.1
60 26.3 86.3 322./14.3
66 27.3 87.1 322./12.1
72 28.3 87.9 320./12.3
78 29.4 88.7 327./13.4
84 30.6 89.6 320./14.2
90 31.5 90.5 319./11.9
96 32.3 91.3 314./10.9
102 33.2 91.9 325./ 9.8
108 33.9 92.4 324./ 8.1
114 34.4 92.8 322./ 6.2
120 34.7 93.2 301./ 4.6
126 34.9 93.3 355./ 2.1

[Ivanhater]

HWRF still the same as well... NHC will be forced the adjust the track east now

[dwg71]

gradually they will move it, probably the 50 mile we were talking about 6 hours ago, also it appears gus has more of a northernly component on its exit from Jam.

[KWT]

GFDL still showing a very severe set-up for N.O, the surge would go right into the lake...

[teal61]

HWRF still the same as well... NHC will be forced the adjust the track east now

possibly but both of these were available before the last track forecast was issued

[cpdaman]

HWRF still the same as well... NHC will be forced the adjust the track east now

possibly but both of these were available before the last track forecast was issued

no, very very likely IMO

[dwg71]

HWRF still the same as well... NHC will be forced the adjust the track east now

possibly but both of these were available before the last track forecast was issued

and im sure they wanted another run for hwrf to verify before they bought the solution, model support and trough are not NOLAs friend

[BigB0882]

Will be interesting to see if it shifts back east as some of you are predicting. Guess we wont know until the 11 AM update?

[Sihara]

i don't live on the gulf side of florida or NO i am not -removed- this to go anywhere, just calling it like i see it

I totally understand that. I sometimes feel a bit guilty wishing Gustav as far from here as possible - b/c sooner or later it will have to hit someone. They can't just recurve out to sea, as in the atlantic.

[teal61]

A pretty big dif in timing also as the GFDL landfall is about 24 hours earlier than the HWRF. The HWRF also seems to slow a great deal nearing landfall which would be a nightmare for NO.

And Cpd I am well aware of you opinion, but that doesn't change the statement i made that these models are available to the NHC before being released to the public and as such they had them before their last forecast was released.

THere are a great deal of opinions floating around here..a few more facts would be nice

[cycloneye]

Moving 290 degrees.

WHXX01 KWBC 291222
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1222 UTC FRI AUG 29 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUSTAV (AL072008) 20080829 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080829 1200 080830 0000 080830 1200 080831 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.3N 78.4W 19.3N 80.4W 20.5N 82.8W 21.5N 84.9W
BAMD 18.3N 78.4W 19.1N 80.2W 20.3N 82.1W 21.8N 84.1W
BAMM 18.3N 78.4W 19.1N 80.3W 20.1N 82.4W 21.3N 84.3W
LBAR 18.3N 78.4W 19.3N 79.9W 20.9N 81.8W 22.8N 83.6W
SHIP 55KTS 63KTS 72KTS 79KTS
DSHP 55KTS 63KTS 72KTS 79KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080831 1200 080901 1200 080902 1200 080903 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.5N 86.7W 25.0N 88.8W 27.6N 90.0W 29.8N 91.3W
BAMD 23.4N 85.9W 26.6N 88.9W 29.2N 90.7W 30.6N 91.6W
BAMM 22.6N 86.0W 25.7N 88.3W 28.4N 89.9W 30.0N 90.9W
LBAR 24.6N 85.0W 27.5N 86.6W 28.5N 87.7W 28.2N 89.3W
SHIP 86KTS 94KTS 87KTS 76KTS
DSHP 83KTS 91KTS 84KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.3N LONCUR = 78.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 17.8N LONM12 = 77.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 17.9N LONM24 = 75.7W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 988MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 60NM

[cpdaman]

A pretty big dif in timing also as the GFDL landfall is about 24 hours earlier than the HWRF. The HWRF also seems to slow a great deal nearing landfall which would be a nightmare for NO.

And Cpd I am well aware of you opinion, but that doesn't change the statement i made that these models are available to the NHC before being released to the public and as such they had them before their last forecast was released.

THere are a great deal of opinions floating around here..a few more facts would be nice

yes tell me about it, not even facts, but some more certainty in the forecasts, this is madness

[CYCLONE MIKE]

For the models that are shifting more towards SE LA AGAIN, do they still show a gradual slow down and turn to the w or wnw after landfall?

[alicia83]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

No one talks about the cmc, and all I can say is I sure hope it's way wrong in showing much, much weaker ridging across the southeastern US as it take Gustav on a stroll or rampage along the coastline from southern Florida to near the Texas border.

The problem is none of these runs have any good news to bear for whomever is in the path of Gustav. Just my lowly, unofficial position.

[KWT]

Yep indeed cycloneye so its picking up some latitude now, though recon fix suggests maybe even more then that at one point.

looking at the models I think the NHC will have to track a little further east but keep the same general idea of a west bend back.

[LieslD]

Madness? THIS IS SPARTA!

I'm sorry, I just had to, I"m siting here in st charles parish trying to figure out what I need to box up to leave as though there will be nothing left when I get back. I have 4 children to worry about as well as several animals. Makes me a bit of a basket case, so I hope you will all forgive me.

[teal61]

A pretty big dif in timing also as the GFDL landfall is about 24 hours earlier than the HWRF. The HWRF also seems to slow a great deal nearing landfall which would be a nightmare for NO.

And Cpd I am well aware of you opinion, but that doesn't change the statement i made that these models are available to the NHC before being released to the public and as such they had them before their last forecast was released.

THere are a great deal of opinions floating around here..a few more facts would be nice

yes tell me about it, not even facts, but some more certainty in the forecasts, this is madness

Sad but true...the fact is a landfall on the central Louisiana coast would be much better than where the GFDL and Hwrf show. Both would be terrible for New Orleans especially the HWRF, a slowing major hurricane in that position could be devastating for them, not to mention the coast of my homestate...Mississippi.

It seems the problem with the GFDL and has been for quite a few runs is timing, it has the storm on the coast much faster than the other models and certainly ahead of the NHC forecast.

Things will hopefully become much more clear soon as the time is rapidly approaching for action in Southeast Louisiana.

[KWT]

Yeah the GFDL does seem to be quicker probably has Gustav really latching onto the trough and lifting out.

as othjers say both the GFDL and the HWRF have very bad set-ups for N.O...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Still a couple of outliers, but most of the guidance has been fairly close, and has been that way for several runs.

Houston is still in the cone of uncertainty, so it is wise to keep a close watch, but, in my amateur and unofficial opinion, I would be surprised if landfall wasn't between Pensacola and Intracoastal City.