ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[Scorpion]

Yes, this could get hairy. HWRF and CMC and Euro are absolutely bombing this storm, and many models are taking it this way.

[Rainband]

I aint buying two majors into LA. That's just insane

[Cyclenall]

I think the NOGAPS model run showed for the first time in a long time, a major hurricane for Hanna!

[Nimbus]

The ULL to the west of hanna is moving WNW so Hanna should gain some latitude and experience shear short term.
The model runs continue to remain frightening.

I agree Hanna would have to gain quite a bit of latitude over the next few days to avoid getting trapped by the forecast ridge.

Not much in the model runs to support a recurve wishcast is there?

[KWT]

Well the models are now suggesting that Hanna will get shunted SW/SSW. Its a very odd track, sort of like Betsy it seems but its a very tricky forecast to make, steering currents look pretty weak as well.

[SWFLA_CANE]

One thing I'm starting to notice is some of the models are starting to send Hanna east at the end of the runs. HWRF and CMC are two examples.

[Derek Ortt]

CMC looks to be doing a Fujiwara around a phantom hurricane

[fci]

Are you sure that Gustav will be too far away for the fujiwara to occur?

[Weatherboy1]

recurve -- it is a scary idea ... that this could do a Betsy like track. But that does appear to be what some of the modelling (GFS, Euro) is showing. An alternative could be something like an Andrew track. Still too far out to say for sure (we're talking day 6-7 timeframe most likely). But we should definitely watch this one in Florida.

[gatorcane]

NOGAPS shows a major hurricane just east of Florida and the Bahamas:

[Vortex]

6Z Nogaps has a major hurricane headed for south/central florida..One of the lower pressures I've seen in the nogaps model in a long time.



https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008082906

[Trader Ron]

Gator,

I'm liking the latest HWRF run.

[gatorcane]

Gator,

I'm liking the latest HWRF run.

The hope is definitely the HWRF at this time but I wonder if it is picking up on the "loop" scenario properly. Several other models including the NOGAPS (click the link above) show a loop back towards the West or WNW into Florida.

[cycloneye]

06z GFDL sinks Hanna to the Caribbean.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[storms in NC]

If you look at yesterdays of the ULL and Hanna and todays. It look at if Hanna won and the Ull went down in size and Hanna grew in size and won over. I see her going a bit faster and going more NW than WNW like she did yesterday. Here is the pic you can see the difference for your self. I don't buy the SWS track just yet. I'll wait a few days to see where the ULL ends up at. She could end up father to the North and get under the ridge before it shuts off. See what happen in a few days.
yesterdays
[img][/img]

Todays
[img][/img]

[Trader Ron]

Like the NHC said,they need more model runs before they can be confident on the track of Hanna.

[gatorcane]

06z GFDL sinks Hanna to the Caribbean.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

That track is pretty amazing. GFDL moves it SSW then due South for at least 400-500 miles down through the Windward passage/ Western Hispaniola.

[Trader Ron]

I think what the GFDL track is telling you, nobody really knows where Hanna is going.

We should have a better idea by Sunday.

[Recurve]

Not that I've seen everything, but I don't think I've ever seen anything like that GFDL run with such a long trek almost due south, and then slipping between Hispaniola and Cuba. That seems nutty. What kind of pattern produces that track? I'm assuming it would have to be a very narrow high to the west of Hanna.
Where is the trough that could turn this out to sea?
The intensity is worrisome too.
Looks like we may hit the season average of two majors (2.5 actually, I guess) in just the next week.

[Ed Mahmoud]

06z GFDL sinks Hanna to the Caribbean.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

That track is pretty amazing. GFDL moves it SSW then due South for at least 400-500 miles down through the Windward passage/ Western Hispaniola.

That GFDL track would be the weirdest hurricane track EVUH!