ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[KWT]

Ah yeah that makes it perfectly clear AJC3, can see it rotating quite nicely with a new convective blow up near the LLC.

[Blown Away]

So if I understand this correctly, the more WNW Hanna goes vs NW would make her gain less lattitude, which could then make it a bigger threat for SE FL?

My answer is based on the few past SFL storms that did something similiar to Hanna's prediction. If Hanna makes it N of 28N I think the chances of her not coming to SFL are better, below 28N if the ridge is as strong as it is expected then the WSW movement is possible. Check out page 35 of this thread, I posted the crazy tracks of past SFL storms.

Also, that ULL looks much weaker today compared to yesterday afternoon.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[KWT]

Deep convection developing just on the eastern side of the LLC, should be helping this system to strengthen I'd guess right now.

[gatorcane]

Hanna is a larger system than Gustav at the moment:

[weatherwoman]

If JB says it will hit Florida. I know I'm in the clear.

where did you get that

[KWT]

Yep gatorcane though I think the shear is actually helping the convection blow up to the east, I'm very interested in the deeper convection near the LLC, some strengthening should be occuring

[cpdaman]

Yep gatorcane though I think the shear is actually helping the convection blow up to the east, I'm very interested in the deeper convection near the LLC, some strengthening should be occuring

that is the convection i am intrested in as well, particularly will it be sustained

[KWT]

Well if it can sustain the convection then I'd imagine slow strengthening would be possible even if the center is a touch exposed on the western side still.

[tolakram]

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

wider view

[KWT]

Not gainging as much latitude as was progged by some models, not a good trend for the Bahamas...

[cycloneye]

[Vortex]

at this point I think the 00Z UKMET has a good handle on current and forecasted movement.

[Bocadude85]

at this point I think the 00Z UKMET has a good handle on current and forecasted movement.

What does the 00Z UKMET show? I was sleeping when that came out.

[cpdaman]

ULL is pretty stationary , Hanna keeps driving w/wnw

for those keeping score (ULL is still .8 degrees north of hanna and about 4.8 degees west)

this convection over center will not last IMO south shear should pick up in 2 hours or so, unless the ULL dies now. or drifts SSW a bit faster as hanna closes the gap

[Vortex]

at this point I think the 00Z UKMET has a good handle on current and forecasted movement.

What does the 00Z UKMET show? I was sleeping when that came out.

00z ukmet link


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[KWT]

Possibly but the deep convection is helping to keep Hanna going and even undergo bursting strengthening spells cpdaman.

[cpdaman]

Possibly but the deep convection is helping to keep Hanna going and even undergo bursting strengthening spells cpdaman.

for sure, i just see spells of bursting and busting for another 24 hours

[jlauderdal]

at this point I think the 00Z UKMET has a good handle on current and forecasted movement.

What does the 00Z UKMET show? I was sleeping when that came out.

00z ukmet link


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

tht would provide for a maximum amount of prolonged media coverage in sofla..phil ferro updates every 10 minutes discussing wind surge..yep that was a term he used during Fay

[gatorcane]

Hanna growing by the hour:

[Bocadude85]

interesting Vortex... scary to see her so close to S FL.. just a small shift north and she is over our heads