ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think I see an definite eye trying to develop, with a ring of strong convection, near 18.8ºN, 78.8ºW, and the motion seems back more towards the WNW from the earlier NW.


If that is an eye, this is probably a hurricane already. CIMMS automated Dvorak was still a TS at 8:45am CDT, and NHC is holding it as a TS. I guess awaiting confirmation from recon.

[weunice]

I'm not seeing the update yet either, pic please?

I found it on Weather Underground

[Stormcenter]

Why does the NHC only take this to 105 kt? Ridiculous.

Maybe they're seeing something we're not.

Shear plus the waters are cooler.

[Weatherfreak000]

I'm not looking for much of a change. Maybe another 10 mile shift either way.

They went east probably over 50 miles.. update is out.

As this user said....all the models are in agreement in a cluster around Central LA to the LA-MS Border.


NOGAPS and UKMET are the exceptions....but of all the models they have been handling this system the worst. With every run they are consistently wrong...even in the early track.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Why does the NHC only take this to 105 kt? Ridiculous.

you do know they are above ALL OF THE GUIDANCE?

HWRF gets to 118 knots at 10 meters...

[cpdaman]

Why does the NHC only take this to 105 kt? Ridiculous.

you do know they are above ALL OF THE GUIDANCE?

correct me if i am wrong, but are they not most of the time behind the curve after a RI occurs. not saying a RI is occuring, but they seems to usually be behind that curve with a number of major storms in the last 5 years

[ConvergenceZone]

Why does the NHC only take this to 105 kt? Ridiculous.

you do know they are above ALL OF THE GUIDANCE?

of course as we know from past experiences, these storms can easily go to cat 4 or cat 5 once they start to get ramped up.....I can't remember how many times this has happened, but I know it's been a lot...

[KWT]

This will peak long before the north gulf stormcenter given that trough, quite possibly in the NW Caribbean or the southern gulf.

I've got a feeling we are about to see RI in the next 6hrs start, convection still blowing up just west of the center.

[PTrackerLA]

I don't pay much attention to intensity forecasts this far out. Hopefully one day in the future we will be able to better predict intensity. I say just watch and see what happens over the next 48 hours then we should get a much better idea of the ultimate strength. With that being said, Gustav looks better by the hour IMO.

[KWT]

Note slight shift further east new advisory would be very bad fgor N.O, they'd be right in the NE quadrant of what may well be a cat-2/3, with Katrina they probably only got top end cat-1 winds.

[Derek Ortt]

Why does the NHC only take this to 105 kt? Ridiculous.

you do know they are above ALL OF THE GUIDANCE?

HWRF gets to 118 knots at 10 meters...

not on the 12Z interpolated guidance

[dwg71]

landfall has shifted from West of Vermillion bay to Terrebonne bay, a difference of about 100 miles as the crow flies.

[Derek Ortt]

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jgj ... RrP6fx9cgA

11 dead in Jamaica

[ConvergenceZone]

this can landfall in the gulf anywhere from a low cat 1 to a cat 4....I think that's how much uncertainy there is....
perhaps it may be a dangerous hurricane or a very weak one with mostly rain....too early to tell though. All depends how strong the trough and shear is...

[superfly]

Where it passes the Isle of Youth will be a very good marker for where the storm will landfall on the CONUS.

[ConvergenceZone]

of course guidance means nothing...the storm is going to do what it's going to do regardless....

[Just Joshing You]

Looks like it is going to go over a bit more of Cuba.. not that big of a deal, but that may be why the intensity is lowered. They can't very well forecast a cat5 and have egg on their face when it fizzles.

[Stormcenter]

Note slight shift further east new advisory would be very bad fgor N.O, they'd be right in the NE quadrant of what may well be a cat-2/3, with Katrina they probably only got top end cat-1 winds.

Intensity is the key...if he's Cat.1-2 they'll be fine but anything
higher then they have problems. This is of course assuming he follows
that track.

[tolakram]

http://markalot.org/gearth.html

[Ivanhater]

With the Eye becoming visible, its moving more east of the plots..would need to go about due west to get back on..Like AFM said, these short term movements will have a greater impact on the landfall..let's see how he progresses thorughout the day