Gustav Recon Discussion

[CrazyC83]

My guess for this flight: 80 kt/976mb. I think the bomb has started to go off.

[Solaris]

Gustav is definitely getting better organized: Built-up of eye-wall, slow drying of eye (Sat-VIS), outflow pattern more and more symmetrical.

Not bombing yet though, I estimate 68 kt / 983 mb

[Just Joshing You]

62 FL winds in 1002 pressure?

[dwg71]

what has the recon found to justify 70mph winds?? Did I miss it?

[RL3AO]

what has the recon found to justify 70mph winds?? Did I miss it?

D. 57 kt
SURFACE WIND OBSERVED VISUALLY

And considering this was in the SE quad, its pretty safe to assume there are 60kt winds in the NE quad.

[gboudx]

Has the high altitude flight departed yet? Supposed to be 11:30 CDT correct?

[HenkL]

Has the high altitude flight departed yet? Supposed to be 11:30 CDT correct?

Yes, NOAA9 is flying.

[deltadog03]

G4 flight is out...2 drops so far....Looks like the 588dm ridge extend to just west of Key west so far....Winds at 250 are generally out of the SSW at 25kts.

[Cyclenall]

As expected, Gustav is organizing rapidly and a small eye with new deep convection over the north-east side is visible. Recon should find hurricane force winds in that area. This has to be a hurricane now.

[WmE]

979 mb pressure.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

should be 978 since the lowest was 978.4 they should round down to 978

[CrazyC83]

should be 978 since the lowest was 978.4 they should round down to 978

Yep 978 extrapolated. Intensity is probably 70 kt IMO, as a blend of the 72 kt FL (65 kt surface) and 79 kt SFMR.

[dhweather]

just upgraded to Hurricane on NHC web page

000
WTNT62 KNHC 291915
TCUAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
315 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008


DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS AGAIN BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 75
MPH...120 KM/HR.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Lowpressure]

I and J 6 degrees different, getting healthy.

[CrazyC83]

URNT12 KNHC 291927
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 29/19:11:10Z
B. 18 deg 59 min N
079 deg 24 min W
C. 700 mb 2924 m
D. 78 kt
E. 082 deg 021 nm
F. 157 deg 071 kt
G. 073 deg 027 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 8 C/ 3049 m
J. 14 C/ 3045 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 1007A GUSTAV1 OB 02
MAX FL WIND 71 KT NE QUAD 19:02:40 Z
SURFACE WIND OBSERVED VISUALLY

[CrazyC83]

Eye dropsonde supports a pressure of 979mb.

[bostonseminole]

how do they do this?

SURFACE WIND VISUALLY OBSERVED

[RL3AO]

how do they do this?

SURFACE WIND VISUALLY OBSERVED

They look at the waves. Thats what they used to do before they had the fancy SFMR tools.

[bostonseminole]

how do they do this?

SURFACE WIND VISUALLY OBSERVED

They look at the waves. Thats what they used to do before they had the fancy SFMR tools.

is there some science to it? or is it pretty objective?

[RL3AO]

is there some science to it? or is it pretty objective?

You would have to ask Pojo that. Maybe they have a new way of visually observing surface winds since the 1970s.