ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[lbvbl]

The models are 5 days out.. the tracks they are showing wont verify we all know that.. we just need to look at the trends.. the one trend im seeing is a turn to the wnw after her southward dive.... both the GFS and GFDL have her moving NW at the end of their runs.

So does CMC...I know its the CMC but it is another model that goes south of Fla. and then brings Hanna back north west. 12Z has it just of SEFLA

what do you find these models on for the long term?

[storms in NC]

Still don't buying the track to the SW Or WSW. I think it can move a little to the south but not like what they are call for. Just not yet aways.

[SWFLA_CANE]

what do you find these models on for the long term?[/quote]
If you mean the link, here it is.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[storms in NC]

Looks like Hanna is getting some of Gustav moisture

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[jlauderdal]

Still don't buying the track to the SW Or WSW. I think it can move a little to the south but not like what they are call for. Just not yet aways.

do you have some reasoning for that or is just because you dont see SW movement very often, gustav had some some SW movement from haiti to reggae land

[Bocadude85]

yea but how likely that she dives sw for hundred or miles? I cant see that happening.. I can see her going to the sw I just think it will be more subtle then what the models are showing.

[cpdaman]

should pass a bit NE of here later this evening

pressure falling steadily now.....down to 29.72

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41043

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

not sure where center is but that LLC is a beast

[Blown Away]

Still don't buying the track to the SW Or WSW. I think it can move a little to the south but not like what they are call for. Just not yet aways.

The WSW or SW track is not that uncommon and there are many examples. I think many, including I, think this type of track is reasonable just not as extreme as some of the models show. Example, the earlier GFDL had Hanna moving almost due S from N Bahamas through the Windward pass, to extreme, IMO.

[bvigal]

should pass a bit NE of here later this evening

uh, where is "here"?

[gatorcane]

well I don't know about you al thinkl but Hanna has really picked up the pace today......

she's moving quickly off to the WNW and NW (I see a little stair-stepping)

[storms in NC]

Still don't buying the track to the SW Or WSW. I think it can move a little to the south but not like what they are call for. Just not yet aways.

do you have some reasoning for that or is just because you dont see SW movement very often, gustav had some some SW movement from haiti to reggae land

Well At this time the ULL is moving to the WSW and I don't see her going after ther ULL. I think Hanna will go North of the Ull in a tracking of NW to WNW and the front the is moving off the coast is helping to move her more to the north right now. But as long as there is that ULL it will not go South. The Ull could help her move more to the north too. I do think Fl needs to watch this. JIMO which is not much

[canes04]

It looks like Hanna is winning the battle versus the ULL.
IMHO I think tomorrow will be a BIG day for her!!

I'm not liking some of those model runs.

[cpdaman]

should pass a bit NE of here later this evening

uh, where is "here"?

umm...... the bouy in my post

[bvigal]

18z guidance:
LATCUR = 21.5N LONCUR = 63.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 20.9N LONM12 = 61.5W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 20.6N LONM24 = 59.6W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB

apparently center is still west of main convection

[DESTRUCTION5]

Speaking of Hanna, my ideas are stronger and bigger. This is going to be one of the huge atlantic hurricanes that we have not really seen since Isabel, covering a wide area.

From JB Fri afternoon...

[Scorpion]

Yikes.. and from what the models are saying.. headed for Florida.

[gatorcane]

Still don't buying the track to the SW Or WSW. I think it can move a little to the south but not like what they are call for. Just not yet aways.

The WSW or SW track is not that uncommon and there are many examples. I think many, including I, think this type of track is reasonable just not as extreme as some of the models show. Example, the earlier GFDL had Hanna moving almost due S from N Bahamas through the Windward pass, to extreme, IMO.

look at the latest model guidance envelope in the models thread, NHC is now on the south side (left) of the guidance.

That may give some credence to Storms NC argument of not believing the South turn.

[cpdaman]

well I don't know about you al thinkl but Hanna has really picked up the pace today......

she's moving quickly off to the WNW and NW (I see a little stair-stepping)

ya i'm taken aback really, we need some RECON baby!

i would say near 22 63.5 or so but that's just a guess

ya if she speeds up that sw turn will b further west .........

[RL3AO]

well I don't know about you al thinkl but Hanna has really picked up the pace today......

she's moving quickly off to the WNW and NW (I see a little stair-stepping)

ya i'm taken aback really, we need some RECON baby!

i would say near 22 63.5 or so but that's just a guess

ya if she speeds up that sw turn will b further west .........

No we don't. Gustav needs the recon since its a threat to land today and tomorrow. Recon is scheduled for sunday with Hanna.

[canes04]

Speaking of recon. When are they going in?