ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#901 Postby RL3AO » Fri Aug 29, 2008 1:56 pm

canes04 wrote:Speaking of recon. When are they going in?


Sunday.
0 likes   

Scorpion

#902 Postby Scorpion » Fri Aug 29, 2008 1:57 pm

Euro takes out South FL.
0 likes   

User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3324
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

Re:

#903 Postby fci » Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:00 pm

Scorpion wrote:Yikes.. and from what the models are saying.. headed for Florida.


Has the model trend changed since this morning?

Last I saw they had the storm going south or southwest through The Bahamas and not to Florida just yet.

NHC 11:00 AM track had her missing Florida
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: Re:

#904 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:03 pm

fci wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Yikes.. and from what the models are saying.. headed for Florida.


Has the model trend changed since this morning?

Last I saw they had the storm going south or southwest through The Bahamas and not to Florida just yet.

NHC 11:00 AM track had her missing Florida


It slowly is changing. The latest model runs are not showing as big of a turn to the south, and are bringing it back north sooner. They also do not take Hanna as south as before. The NHC cone is actually south of the guidance now. The only model still showing a big push to the south is the GFDL.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_08.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#905 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:09 pm

FCI its changing (not in favor of the Bahamas and FL at the moment).

See models thread.

Euro slams south florida yet again.
0 likes   

Scorpion

#906 Postby Scorpion » Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:14 pm

NOGAPS slams us too.
0 likes   

tgenius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1160
Joined: Mon May 15, 2006 5:31 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#907 Postby tgenius » Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:15 pm

So on the current runs, EURO (which has consistently said it will), ECMWF, and now NOGAPS are onboard with a SFL hit? I'm not liking that much. :(
0 likes   

lbvbl
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 119
Joined: Fri Aug 15, 2008 8:24 am

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#908 Postby lbvbl » Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:17 pm

how often do these models update?
0 likes   

meteorologyman
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 541
Joined: Wed Mar 15, 2006 6:48 pm
Location: Florida, Kissimmee/St.CLoud

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#909 Postby meteorologyman » Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:21 pm

It doesn't seem like the models don't know where this thing goes after the turn towards south. So don't worry about the cone if it goes over area until it becomes consistant.

If there is still no consistancy 3 days before landfall then I would be concerened. But until then take it easy
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#910 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:22 pm

A little bit unstacked, but I would say 55 knots based on that convection.
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#911 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:24 pm

lbvbl wrote:how often do these models update?


Every 6 hours. The current cycle is over, and will begin at 5:30 with the GFS
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10147
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re:

#912 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:25 pm

gatorcane wrote:FCI its changing (not in favor of the Bahamas and FL at the moment).

See models thread.

Euro slams south florida yet again.


Yep, less of a SW dip will bring Hanna closer to SFL sooner than the previous NHC forecast.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#913 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:26 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:A little bit unstacked, but I would say 55 knots based on that convection.

65 MPH is really high. If anything, I think it is a little weaker than earlier. The shear is kicking in again, and it looks like the LLC is moving faster than the convection.
0 likes   

canes04
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 302
Joined: Sat May 22, 2004 5:41 pm
Location: Miami, FL

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#914 Postby canes04 » Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:37 pm

Stay away Hanna, the Dolphins/Jets game is next Sunday in Miami.

Good luck and God Bless everyone in the path of these two storms!!
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#915 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:41 pm

The trend this run has been westward with less of a dip to the southwest. In fact, only the CMC, GFDL, and UKMET models bring Hanna below 22N, and the CMC brings the storm NW right after that. Most models are not having this cross below 23N in 4-5 days. I expect a NW shift in the 4-5 day cone at 5 PM.
0 likes   

User avatar
Jinkers
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 471
Joined: Wed May 23, 2007 10:34 pm
Location: Pembroke Pines, Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#916 Postby Jinkers » Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:42 pm

canes04 wrote:Stay away Hanna, the Dolphins/Jets game is next Sunday in Miami.

Good luck and God Bless everyone in the path of these two storms!!


And I have tickets--stay away Hanna!!
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#917 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:52 pm

captain east wrote:Ya I want Hanna to come I'm Broward and want a storm but I atleast want power for the Giants game this Thursday hopefully...


You should not wan't Hanna to come. If it does, we could be looking at a major Hurricane. You do not want to be in the center of that.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#918 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:52 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
captain east wrote:Ya I want Hanna to come I'm Broward and want a storm but I atleast want power for the Giants game this Thursday hopefully...


You should not wan't Hanna to come. If it does, we could be looking at a major Hurricane. You do not want to be in the center of that.


no major hurricane has moved into Broward County from the Atlantic in history (which goes back only about 150 years) --

of course it doesn't mean it could happen.

Palm Beach Counties and Miami-Dade have several majors from the east (many more hurricanes from the South though)
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in Western Atlantic

#919 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:54 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:
captain east wrote:Ya I want Hanna to come I'm Broward and want a storm but I atleast want power for the Giants game this Thursday hopefully...


You should not wan't Hanna to come. If it does, we could be looking at a major Hurricane. You do not want to be in the center of that.


no major hurricane has moved into Broward County from the Atlantic in history --

of course it doesn't mean it could happen.

Palm Beach Counties and Miami-Dade have several majors from the east (many more hurricanes from the South though)

It does not have to be from Broward County. Wilma came in from the other side of the state, and gave us solid Cat 1 winds.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#920 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 29, 2008 2:55 pm

Latest: Hanna is a large system.

Image
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests