ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[lbvbl]

12Z CMC in Central Bahamas and just off the coast of SE Florida as a powerful hurricane:

WOW. How powerful is that thing?

[Trader Ron]

I'll wait until Sunday/Monday to see where the models are.

Today it's anybody's guess.

[Blown Away]

If we don't buy such an extreme SW dive and more of a general SW motion this will bring Hanna closer to SFL much sooner. Hanna has been moving more WNW which may bring her further W before she hits the ridge to the N. The NHC track has Hanna hitting 25N/70W then starting the SW dive, the more WNW Hanna goes it might be closer to 75W before she makes that dive.

[gatorcane]

If we don't buy such an extreme SW dive and more of a general SW motion this will bring Hanna closer to SFL much sooner. Hanna has been moving more WNW which may bring her further W before she hits the ridge to the N. The NHC track has Hanna hitting 25N/70W then starting the SW dive, the more WNW Hanna goes it might be closer to 75W before she makes that dive.

I think the ULL is driving her NW though. Check it out:

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

At any rate she seems to have picked up speed. The GFS accelerates her WNW also before slowing her down to a grinding halt east of the Bahamas.

[gtsmith]

12Z CMC in Central Bahamas and just off the coast of SE Florida as a powerful hurricane:

OK, gater...now i CAN agree with your phrasing...that CMC location is "off the coast of Florida" for sure

but, in that loop her general motion the last frame or so was NNW...if it was due west...well, I'd be in quite a panic. we just dont know how she'll move after that spot location...could continue N or move east, move west...

[tgenius]

I believe that even that close that warnings would have to go up.. just too many unknowns..

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 291835
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1835 UTC FRI AUG 29 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA (AL082008) 20080829 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080829 1800 080830 0600 080830 1800 080831 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.5N 63.3W 22.5N 65.4W 23.5N 67.3W 24.2N 68.9W
BAMD 21.5N 63.3W 22.6N 65.0W 23.4N 66.6W 24.1N 68.1W
BAMM 21.5N 63.3W 22.3N 65.2W 23.1N 67.0W 23.7N 68.6W
LBAR 21.5N 63.3W 22.4N 64.9W 23.3N 66.9W 23.8N 68.8W
SHIP 45KTS 49KTS 56KTS 61KTS
DSHP 45KTS 49KTS 56KTS 61KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080831 1800 080901 1800 080902 1800 080903 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.1N 70.5W 26.3N 73.1W 26.2N 76.2W 24.7N 81.1W
BAMD 24.7N 69.4W 24.8N 71.1W 23.8N 72.3W 23.3N 74.1W
BAMM 24.3N 69.9W 24.9N 72.0W 24.5N 73.9W 23.4N 77.0W
LBAR 24.1N 70.9W 22.8N 74.8W 20.2N 78.2W 17.5N 80.5W
SHIP 68KTS 73KTS 74KTS 75KTS
DSHP 68KTS 73KTS 74KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.5N LONCUR = 63.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 20.9N LONM12 = 61.5W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 20.6N LONM24 = 59.6W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D

[gatorcane]

The NHC is now south-side (left) of the guidance envelope....

Wouldn't surprise me if they nudge the 3-5 day cone a bit right on the next advisory.

[jlauderdal]

it seem to me that models that make Hanna a powerful hurricane (e.g CMC and NOGAPS) do not dive her SW as much as models that keep her more shallow (UKMET, GFS)

well shallower systems are steered differently than deeper systems that could explain it, bottom line gator is this is very complicated setup and we might have some interaction with gus to throw into the mix especially if he is farther east than current modeling depicts so its really going to be interesting, the idea is that hannah heads ssw for now

[Scorpion]

Boom.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think FL is under there somewhere...

[JPmia]

well nobody can say that the EURO has not been consistent the last couple of days

[jlauderdal]

well nobody can say that the EURO has not been consistent the last couple of days

last week or so it has seen this, lets see if it verifies, our best shot is too keep this thing SE of us heading south

[Brent]

Boom.

Much faster than the runs yesterday too, that's 6 days from now 2 days after Gustav hits.

[wzrgirl1]

which means it will be upon us in 5 days....that means watches/warnings would go up late Tuesday or early Wednesday it seems

[Blown Away]

I think FL is under there somewhere...

That was good I needed a afternoon chuckle.

[Canelaw99]

Boom.

Much faster than the runs yesterday too, that's 6 days from now 2 days after Gustav hits.

Definitely been too consistent for my liking....glad we still have some water...better get a few cans of tuna this weekend, just in case....

[jlauderdal]

Boom.

Much faster than the runs yesterday too, that's 6 days from now 2 days after Gustav hits.

Definitely been too consistent for my liking....glad we still have some water...better get a few cans of tuna this weekend, just in case....

the euro has been all over this thing for days now, if you like consistency than the euro is your model, the pattern still looks very complicated so plenty of time to see how things develop this weekend

[Trader Ron]

which means it will be upon us in 5 days....that means watches/warnings would go up late Tuesday or early Wednesday it seems

If they are talking Thursday for landfall, and that's a BIG IF, watches and warnings will go up on Monday IMO.

[smithtim]

I'll wait until Sunday/Monday to see where the models are.

Today it's anybody's guess.

That's the truth!

My feeling is that the models for Hannah need to know more about what Gustav does and how his landfall affects that High that everybody says will slow down Hannah and send it SW to whereever... as far as we know Gustav may blow up and have a significant affect on that high and opeing up a gap for Hannah to turn to the north, but then on the other hand Gustav may not blow up and that high will be there


I still think SFL should be very concerend... but that's more of a gut feeling ( well I did look at the histroical tracks on wunderground yeserday and the only storm in the local that didn't make that big turn to the north was that storm that started out the 1992 season for FL