Well.........here we go again

[JCT777]

The Hot Shot Crew is OUT! Praise the Lord! If no other good news comes out of the fire today, that's OK......

I can see and hear the bulldozers building line just behind the house at this moment, a comforting sight and sound indeed!

Dennis

Glad to hear there is some good news. Now we just need that darn fire to go away. Claudette needs to get movin' toward Pinetop!

[Aslkahuna]

associated with Claudette. The first is that dry divergent air will be over AZ today and for part of tomorrow as the system approaches which will not aid fire control. The second is that the system is still showing a tightly wound circulation (probably strongest in the mid levels) which is small in size-with the northern edge about 150-200 miles north of the center. While great for rain production along the track, if you are north of the cloud canopy, you get nada except maybe a few boomers and shifting winds until the backside passes and SE flow kicks in. If the system loosens up and becomes a wave then the weather will become more widespread. For us down here, the pattern if it evolves as now forecast could effectively end the fire season for us. It looks like a band of severes developing somewhere around SV tomorrow afternoon or evening followed by a day or two of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity with heavy rains and then a few days of SE flow which means scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms with the potential for MCC development in Northern Sonora.

Steve

[therock1811]

Amen to that John... I'll second.

[azsnowman]

The worst fears confirmed, the plume that developed over night DID in fact collapse around 0830.......sending the fire in ALL four directions once again, the last acreage count I've got is now 18,000 acres and growing by leaps and bounds, flame lengths are now reported over 250 FEET in spots, with flame lengths that long, the fuels 500-600 feet in front of the fire are preheated and explode into fire storms once the leading edge of the fire reaches it.


Winds..........not good, sustained winds of 19 gusting to 35 out of the S-SW, low cloud deck at the moment is keeping the plumes under 20,000, the worst case scenario........it's like squeezing a water ballon.

The smoke once again, along with the ash is ALMOST unbearable this afternoon.

The northern fire line is holding, don't know for how long however, the NW fireline was breached, possibly sending the fire towards ShowLow now. Damn.......just ONE good rain and this would be under control in a matter of days, not weeks!

Dennis

[weatherlover427]

Not good, Dennis. I pray for you.

[azsnowman]

Well, after all is said and done, today wound up to be a *good* day after all in spite of the Fort Apache Hot Shots almost having their escape route cut off........the fire made no further movement to the N.....the NW flank is still crankin' Total acres burnt.....17,700, as you see, it didn't grow too much today, only 5000 acres (ONLY), crews got more handlines, bulldozer lines dug on the north flank.


Winds are calm, humidity is climbing, 32% as of 2200 hrs.........containment still stands at 10% with more expected tonight.

Dennis

[azsnowman]

Got some photos of the plumes, smoke etc.

http://community.webshots.com/user/azsnowman

Dennis