ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[captain east]

Ya I want Hanna to come I'm Broward and want a storm but I atleast want power for the Giants game this Thursday hopefully...

You should not wan't Hanna to come. If it does, we could be looking at a major Hurricane. You do not want to be in the center of that.

no major hurricane has moved into Broward County from the Atlantic in history (which goes back only about 150 years) --

of course it doesn't mean it could happen.

Palm Beach Counties and Miami-Dade have several majors from the east (many more hurricanes from the South though)

The worst I've ever gotten was the eye of Wilma. I really just want a hurricane so I can get some video of it and experience it. I love watching these things and enjoy them even if I'm in the middle of em'...

p.s. For Wilma I had no power for 2 1/2 weeks and I actually enjoyed it, so I think I could cope...

[Bocadude85]

Ya I want Hanna to come I'm Broward and want a storm but I atleast want power for the Giants game this Thursday hopefully...

You should not wan't Hanna to come. If it does, we could be looking at a major Hurricane. You do not want to be in the center of that.

no major hurricane has moved into Broward County from the Atlantic in history (which goes back only about 150 years) --

of course it doesn't mean it could happen.

Palm Beach Counties and Miami-Dade have several majors from the east (many more hurricanes from the South though)

Actually that can be debated... the 1947 Cat 4 made landfall on the Broward/Palm Beach line.. and I think officially landfall was in Broward County

[jlauderdal]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
331 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

DISCUSSION
HURRICANE GUSTAV (NEWLY UPGRADED) IS MAKING PROGRESS
NORTHWEST ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA
IS FEELING SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE IN EAST WINDS. GUSTAV WILL BE
WEST OF THE AREA IN THE GULF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE NOTICED A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WHICH MAY
POSSIBLY BE CONNECTED SOMEWHAT TO GUSTAV IS ENHANCING CONVECTION.
I THINK THAT IS THE REASON THE POPS GO UP THIS WEEKEND SINCE THIS
ENHANCED AREA OF CONVECTION AND INCREASING PWAT'S TO NEAR 2.5
INCHES WILL BE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. ANYWAY, WE WILL BE IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF GUSTAV WHICH IS THE WETTEST SIDE. POPS
DECREASE FOR MONDAY AS THE T.C. MOVES FURTHER NORTHWEST. HAVE USED
THE TROPICAL CWF AND GOT WORDING OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO HIGH ENOUGH PWS NUMBERS.
BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, HANNA WILL BE OUR NEXT PROBLEM AND STILL A
BIT TO FAR OUT TO SAY WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK. STAY TUNED!

[gatorcane]

so Gustav is going going to give Southern Florida tropical storm conditions???

I don't think I saw that coming.

[BigA]

Looks to me like the ULL may be starting to weaken and shift to the west. Hard to tell though if an ULL is weakening.

[storms in NC]

Ya I want Hanna to come I'm Broward and want a storm but I atleast want power for the Giants game this Thursday hopefully...

Wow you're gonna get reamed...here. Careful what you wish for!

When I see some thing like that I shake my head and say if Kids only knew what happen when one does hit. The money their parents will have to put out. Or time lost from work. They will learn one day.
When Fay was going to Ft Myers People at my daughters work asked why she wasn't worried over it. She told them she lived in NC and have been thought a lot. Just get you stuff and cook so food would be done for a few day when you don't have light. and cook out on the grill. No big deal go with the flow she said.

[jlauderdal]

so Gustav is going going to give Southern Florida tropical storm conditions???

I don't think I saw that coming.

me either, must be a squeeze play situation

[HeatherAKC]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
331 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

DISCUSSION
HURRICANE GUSTAV (NEWLY UPGRADED) IS MAKING PROGRESS
NORTHWEST ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA
IS FEELING SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE IN EAST WINDS. GUSTAV WILL BE
WEST OF THE AREA IN THE GULF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE NOTICED A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WHICH MAY
POSSIBLY BE CONNECTED SOMEWHAT TO GUSTAV IS ENHANCING CONVECTION.
I THINK THAT IS THE REASON THE POPS GO UP THIS WEEKEND SINCE THIS
ENHANCED AREA OF CONVECTION AND INCREASING PWAT'S TO NEAR 2.5
INCHES WILL BE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. ANYWAY, WE WILL BE IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF GUSTAV WHICH IS THE WETTEST SIDE. POPS
DECREASE FOR MONDAY AS THE T.C. MOVES FURTHER NORTHWEST. HAVE USED
THE TROPICAL CWF AND GOT WORDING OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO HIGH ENOUGH PWS NUMBERS.
BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY, HANNA WILL BE OUR NEXT PROBLEM AND STILL A
BIT TO FAR OUT TO SAY WHERE IT WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK. STAY TUNED!

Wow. Kinda surprised by that.

[gatorcane]

it almost seems like the ULL to its W is "carrying" Hanna on a WNW to NW track......

[Blown Away]

5pm track predictions:
I think the 5 day track will be a little faster and SFL should be in the 5 day error cone.

[Trader Ron]

JB on FOX.. Hanna will hit Southern Florida as a Cat 3/4

We'll see....

[SouthFLTropics]

JB on FOX.. Hanna will hit Southern Florida as a Cat 3/4

We'll see....

Well it sounds like JB is sticking his neck out there again...I tend to respect his knowledge but I wonder sometimes how much keeping people watching FNC has to do with the hype that he places out there. I mean Miami has to be a very large market for FNC...and by the way, I actually like FNC and the "no spin zone".

SFT

[storms in NC]

Okay this is out of Morhead City. Please take note the the ridge will be weakening this is what I was talking about yesterday as for timing. That ridge will not stay in place for 24-7 like most are thinking here. this is just one of the reasons I don't think Hanna will move south. She will keep here NW to WNW movement with a wobble here and there. But will stay on that WNW to NW
And if she stays weak a more West movement

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE A DECENT STRETCH OF WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM AS DRY AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION AROUND DEEP HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE
NW/N. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO LONG TERM GRIDS WHICH ADVERTISE DRY WX AND
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY TIME TEMPS. NIGHTIME LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THOUGH PSBLY BELOW NORMAL EARLY IN THE WEEK
BEHIND THE INITIAL SURGE OF DRY AIR AND CLEARING SKIES. WILL
CONTINUE A SILENT 20 POP BY NEXT FRIDAY WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THE
DEEP RIDGING WILL BEGIN SLIDING EAST AND WEAKENING...ALLOWING A SLOW
RETURN OF MOISTURE. IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TELL THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM THE VARIOUS TROPICAL SYSTEMS NHC IS WATCHING BUT AT THE
VERY LEAST WE WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS FROM
HANNA LATE SUN THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. OTHER THAN THAT NO OTHER TROPICAL
THREATS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD THAT ENDS NEXT FRI SEPT 5.

[gatorcane]

5pm track predictions:
I think the 5 day track will be a little faster and SFL should be in the 5 day error cone.

well its going to be close I think. I wouldn't expect a large right shift but certainly a shift...

we'll see....

[jlauderdal]

JB on FOX.. Hanna will hit Southern Florida as a Cat 3/4

We'll see....

Well it sounds like JB is sticking his neck out there again...I tend to respect his knowledge but I wonder sometimes how much keeping people watching FNC has to do with the hype that he places out there. I mean Miami has to be a very large market for FNC...and by the way, I actually like FNC and the "no spin zone".

SFT

he has plenty of model support for now

[storms in NC]

this out of WILM NWC
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND RIDGING ALOFT. HANNA WILL PLAY SOME ROLE IN
THE FORECAST...BUT STILL A LOT OF QUESTIONS AS TO HOW THE STORM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION. TIGHT SFC GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN STRONG GUSTY NE
WINDS BUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT KEEPS ATMOSPHERE CAPPED. TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
DURING THE PERIOD. ONLY REAL THREAT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP MAY BE AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD...DEPENDANT ON THE TRACK HANNA TAKES AND WHERE
THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE GOES.

[Brent]

JB on FOX.. Hanna will hit Southern Florida as a Cat 3/4

We'll see....

Oh dear.

[sfwx]

JB on Fox News:

"Do not be surprised if by this time next week see a cat 3/4 (Hanna) hitting Florida from the south." This is going to be a big storm." He compared this year to 1985. He says Gustav "Will likely be a cat 5 before it hits Cuba and then weaken a little before it becomes a cat 4 or 5 again. Landfall will be between where Katrina and Rita hit. The good news is that may be weakening at landfall. But, it may also may head off to the west at the last minute."

His projected path for Hanna takes her SW on Tues and Wed., across South Florida on Friday, into the Gulf and makes landfall in the Fl Panhandle as a cat 3 next Saturday..........

[captain east]

I just watched 7 news and they have the storm making a turn down to Cuba and Haiti, completely missing Florida...

[jlauderdal]

JB on Fox News:

"Do not be surprised if by this time next week see a cat 3/4 (Hanna) hitting Florida from the south." This is going to be a big storm." He compared this year to 1985. He says Gustav "Will likely be a cat 5 before it hits Cuba and then weaken a little before it becomes a cat 4 or 5 again. Landfall will be between where Katrina and Rita hit. The good news is that may be weakening at landfall. But, it may also may head off to the west at the last minute."

His projected path for Hanna takes her SW on Tues and Wed., across South Florida on Friday, into the Gulf and makes landfall in the Fl Panhandle as a cat 3 next Saturday..........

hmm, so it goes from sofla to the panhandle in one day, something is very wrong with that timing