ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[dwg71]

Def a roller coaster with models....Euro was east last night and now back west...It's a TX/LA thing. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best....

Per Jefferson (Beaumont/Pt Arthur) Emergency response meeting, if a evac is called it will be Sunday morning and voluntary on Saturday IF they call for one.

Euro is hard to read, I see it hitting Central LA and then continuing west inland.

[vaffie]

I don't think that's the new 12Z--I think that's yesterday's. The latest one hasn't yet come out.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Today is the first day of G-IV missions. The 12Z models today don't have that data. The plane was scheduled to leave at 12:30 pm CDT, and I'm guessing the data will go into the 0Z models.

[vaffie]

12Z euro out now. shifted further west to the Beaumont-Lake Charles area, perhaps slightly on the Texas side. not sure.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8082912!!/

[Stratosphere747]

Euro is hard to read, I see it hitting Central LA and then continuing west inland.

It trended W and by a decent amount.

The 0z run can easily trend back to the E.

[Wx_Warrior]

I'm just not worried about model run until Sunday. I'm prepared. They have flopped more than Ross Perot's presidential run.

[Jagno]

Here in SW Louisiana they just announced all public & private schools, technical schools and colleges will be closed until at least Thursday, at which time , closures could be extended. Voluntary evacuation to begin tomorrow and mandatory Sunday is what I was told but I haven't had time to verify this part yet.

I just got the last of my windows boarded..........actually my son did it and a fine job I might add.

[dwg71]

NOGAPS shifted well North, now east of Galveston.

[Wx_Warrior]

Another flopper...

The ones I really sink my teeth into are EURO, GFDL, GFS, and a tad HWRF.

[gboudx]

Another flopper...

The ones I really sink my teeth into are EURO, GFDL, GFS, and a tad HWRF.

Are those the one your brother likes?

[dwg71]

Another flopper...

The ones I really sink my teeth into are EURO, GFDL, GFS, and a tad HWRF.

the average for them would be central LA coast.

[Dishiki]

My father works for the federal government and they had a conference call with the NHC this morning. Apparently, the NHC is worried about a trough over Florida that could pick up Gustav and shift it east as far as Pensacola. He said that they were saying none of the models are factoring that in and they are very concerned about the uncertainty of the track.

I know things are trending west. What is the possibility of the above happening, of having a substantial shift east?

He also said that contraflow is going to begin on Saturday at 6pm in LA to evacuate lower parishes.

[dwg71]

Once models get grasp of Trough and depth of it, IMO they will shift back east. GFS should be interesting.

[BigB0882]

My father works for the federal government and they had a conference call with the NHC this morning. Apparently, the NHC is worried about a trough over Florida that could pick up Gustav and shift it east as far as Pensacola. He said that they were saying none of the models are factoring that in and they are very concerned about the uncertainty of the track.

I know things are trending west. What is the possibility of the above happening, of having a substantial shift east?

He also said that contraflow is going to begin on Saturday at 6pm in LA to evacuate lower parishes.

I was under the impression that the models were taking that trough into consideration but that they just didn't think it would pull the storm that far East. If I had the willpower I would stay away from the computer until Sunday morning and then have a good idea of what will actually happen. Unfortunately I don't.

[Portastorm]

Another flopper...

The ones I really sink my teeth into are EURO, GFDL, GFS, and a tad HWRF.

the average for them would be central LA coast.

OK, the 12z Euro has the Tx/La border.The 12z GFS is SW Louisiana. The 12z GFDL is further east, say SE Lousiana ... and you call that average "central La coast?"

OK then ...

[Wx_Warrior]

If a high builds in from the Great Lakes, as some say, it won't be headed east.

[southerngale]

Ok, look guys... Stop with all the snippy, rude, accusatory comments! I just left for a few hours, came back, and skimmed several pages of bickering. It is common sense and perfectly normal to be concerned and pay more attention to the models that show your area. Stop with the -removed- remarks against others. If you're in a potential target area and a model shows your area, obviously you care! And you shouldn't get blasted for talking about it. I'm looking for information myself and got pretty ticked off reading through several pages of bickering.

The way you view the models may depend on where you are. I can tell you that I am much more nervous with the models this afternoon than I was yesterday at this time, or even this morning. If I talk about the ones that creep me out, that doesn't mean I want a stupid hurricane. OK? And I know a gazillion other people who feel the same way. This board is so we can discuss the tropics and relay important information to others. It's a great resource and we want EVERYONE to feel comfortable posting and asking questions.

And yes, I know... there are some who may actually want a storm (clearly they've never been through one!), but let it go. Most people don't! They're concerned and/or worried. Who in their right mind wants their property damaged or destroyed?

Lay off the personal attacks and subtle -removed- accusations if you want to post here. Thanks.

[Stratosphere747]

Once models get grasp of Trough and depth of it, IMO they will shift back east. GFS should be interesting.

True, but if the 4pm track isn't moved back to the E then there could be some confidence that the building High will have a impact later in the period

[N2Storms]

[quote="Wx_Warrior"]If a high builds in from the Great Lakes, as some say, it won't be headed east.[/quote]



right, as AFM said this morning if I'm not mistaken...if the trough really digs in deep into the GOM and the High builds in as strong as it is predicted to then it would move Gustav almost due NWrd...IMO the farthest East it could go would be Mobile Bay but even that is a stretch...La Coast is still the bullseye for right now with Hou/Gal being very much in play

[Stratosphere747]

Curios to see if the continue with something close to the TVCN.