ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

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Dean4Storms
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Re: Re:

#5921 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:20 pm

Lowpressure wrote:
93superstorm wrote:Also the Depth is very deep, tonight later this evenin this is going all out imo:

Image

Gulf seems cooler than normal above 26 north, doesn't it. Gus may peak in the Southern Gulf, then lose a bit on approach.



Not so true, when you get to the northern Gulf the water becomes shallow and if I'm reading that right those numbers are in meters so unless Gustav drags some cooler waters in from somewhere else I don't know that the chart above really says anything about the blue areas in the north GOM.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#5922 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:20 pm

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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#5923 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:21 pm

While Mr Joe B may seem crazy for forecasting a Cat 5 before Cuba, I don't think it's out of possibility. We've seen in the future how fast these storms ramp up....I don't think it will be a Cat5 but I'm not saying it's impossible either.
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Re:

#5924 Postby mvtrucking » Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:22 pm

93superstorm wrote:Also the Depth is very deep, tonight later this evenin this is going all out imo:

Image



That would be almost 80 degrees F down to 175+ meters in places?
Last edited by mvtrucking on Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#5925 Postby weatherguru18 » Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:22 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:While Mr Joe B may seem crazy for forecasting a Cat 5 before Cuba, I don't think it's out of possibility. We've seen in the future how fast these storms ramp up....I don't think it will be a Cat5 but I'm not saying it's impossible either.


He said he thinks landfall will be half way between Rita and Katrina. I see it further west than that, but that's what he thinks. He also said that his biggest concern is that Gustav may end up jogging west toward Texas at the last minute. He said he thinks, like Rita and Katrina, it'll be weakening as it comes in.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#5926 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:23 pm

Lowpressure wrote:
weatherguru18 wrote:Joe Bastardi on Fox. Claims could be a 5 before cuba

:roll:


Boy he just shoots from the hip on everything. Wxman57 may be correct w/ his initial N Mexico/ S Texas prediction if the models keep moving W.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#5927 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:23 pm

If Gus and Hanna had a Fujiwara interaction (hypothesizing here so don't bother with the "they are too far apart" responses) Gus would go more west and Hanna would go more N.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#5928 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:23 pm

Sabanic wrote:I'm beginning to think we may be clear on this end.


Hoping so but I won't feel relieved until the 00z model runs with the G-IV jet samplings ingested into the models. That trough is deeper and sharper than any of the models indicated from what I can tell.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#5929 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:23 pm

I notice in the latest visible the eye is clouding over but this is apparently due to new convection firing near the center. Is this a sign if additional strengthening?

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Image
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#5930 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:24 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:While Mr Joe B may seem crazy for forecasting a Cat 5 before Cuba, I don't think it's out of possibility. We've seen in the future how fast these storms ramp up....I don't think it will be a Cat5 but I'm not saying it's impossible either.



JB also said weakening to a Cat 3 before Gulf Coast landfall, and he said on his PPV 'Big Dog" video he thought NHC track was reasonable.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#5931 Postby Category 5 » Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:24 pm

weatherguru18 wrote:Joe Bastardi on Fox. Claims could be a 5 before cuba


Why am I not surprised?

Though it isn't 100% out of the question.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#5932 Postby weatherguru18 » Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:24 pm

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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#5933 Postby TexasStorm » Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:25 pm

Poor Cayman's... think they are about to get the brunt of a ticked off storm.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#5934 Postby N2Storms » Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:25 pm

[quote="Sabanic"]I'm beginning to think we may be clear on this end.[/quote]



Yep, I believe it is definitely a Tx storm
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#5935 Postby 93superstorm » Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:26 pm

tolakram wrote:I notice in the latest visible the eye is clouding over but this is apparently due to new convection firing near the center. Is this a sign if additional strengthening?

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Image


YES, notice the new very deep grey convection firing over the center:


Image
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#5936 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:27 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:While Mr Joe B may seem crazy for forecasting a Cat 5 before Cuba, I don't think it's out of possibility. We've seen in the future how fast these storms ramp up....I don't think it will be a Cat5 but I'm not saying it's impossible either.



JB also said weakening to a Cat 3 before Gulf Coast landfall, and he said on his PPV 'Big Dog" video he thought NHC track was reasonable.



cat 3 or lower is possible in the gulf with all the shear that's forecast....It may not be a major at all in the gulf, but a different story before Cuba....
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#5937 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:28 pm

N2Storms wrote:
Sabanic wrote:I'm beginning to think we may be clear on this end.




Yep, I believe it is definitely a Tx storm



Might be better to declare Florida in the clear after the 0Z models are run with G-IV data. I still prefer the GFDL track, myself.


I am, of course, an amateur, and my opinions are not official forecasts.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#5938 Postby rtd2 » Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:29 pm

N2Storms wrote:
Sabanic wrote:I'm beginning to think we may be clear on this end.




Yep, I believe it is definitely a Tx storm






I'm in too! seen enough models...I was waiting on on the GFDL to get out of hancock county and it has....
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav in Central Caribbean Sea

#5939 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:29 pm

weatherguru18 wrote:Joe Bastardi on Fox. Claims could be a 5 before cuba


WOW, how shocking. Never would have expected JB to say that.

I also think this is looking a lot more like a SE TX/SW LA storm, just like Rita.
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Re:

#5940 Postby curtadams » Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:30 pm

inda_iwall wrote:Now correct me if I am wrong, but the hurricane is a physical force right, like a spinning wheel somewhat. And when it comes against land such as Cuba, wont the land slow down the first leading edge causing it to take a right? Just like a spinning top hitting a different surface? So with that said, why do none of the models or anything take that into consideration, did that not just happen with Fay? And with just a small deviation down over cuba will result in a big deviation in track, like say 200-300 miles east of where it is?


You're thinking of a hurricane as a solid object when they're actually patterns in air. Land does drag, but since hurricanes are made of air the drag in one part is not well transmitted to the hurricane as a whole (incidentally the models *do* account for it). Also, hurricanes don't have momentum - they really just drift in the wind. If something moves them, say, 50 miles they will just drift with the winds there. Generally that results in the whole track shifting about the same distance, although differential winds could make the change either larger or smaller down the line. It's not like a billiard ball where moving it also changes its momentum, resulting in ever-greater track shifts over time.
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