ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

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artist
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#1961 Postby artist » Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:53 pm

it's beginning to sound like my sons are in here arguing. :spam:

The models will continue to adjust, even up to landfall, but they will shift less and less within the last 3 days. Until then, I see this thread as being about what factors could cause the shifts, etc.

And for those with questions of the pros and mets please see this forum where they are happy to try to answer them as best they can.
viewforum.php?f=29
Last edited by artist on Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Stormcenter
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#1962 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:55 pm

Not a Texas storm yet but getting closer. I knew the NHC would not shift the track that much westward until the GDFL comes aboard.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad
Last edited by Stormcenter on Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1963 Postby gboudx » Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:56 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Not a Texas storm yet but getting closer. I knew the NHC would shift the track that much westward until the GDFL come aboard.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad


I'm in the 5 day cone. Eastern Dallas suburb.
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weatherguru18

Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav-Model Runs

#1964 Postby weatherguru18 » Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:58 pm

I'm actually surprised it didn't come further west than that...hmmmm. I guess they are still leaning toward the GFDL and throwing the Nogaps and others out the window.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav-Model Runs

#1965 Postby pojo » Fri Aug 29, 2008 3:59 pm

rainman wrote:watch this arrogant tv met from beaumont.

http://www.kfdm.com/video/index.php?bcp ... 1761979073


he is nowhere near arrogant as a OCM.... I've worked in the media.... I've seen arrogant OCMs......

this OCM is just trying to calm the nerves of citizens in the HOU/GAL area....... During Hurricane Rita Houston had a mirror evacuation with caused thousands of people to ride out Rita on the interstate even though Rita struck TX/LA near Sabine Pass well EAST of HOU/GAL.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav-Model Runs

#1966 Postby rainman » Fri Aug 29, 2008 4:02 pm

pojo wrote:
rainman wrote:watch this arrogant tv met from beaumont.

http://www.kfdm.com/video/index.php?bcp ... 1761979073


he is nowhere near arrogant as a OCM.... I've worked in the media.... I've seen arrogant OCMs......

this OCM is just trying to calm the nerves of citizens in the HOU/GAL area....... During Hurricane Rita Houston had a mirror evacuation with caused thousands of people to ride out Rita on the interstate even though Rita struck TX/LA near Sabine Pass well EAST of HOU/GAL.


people in tx along the la border need to prepare right now. he was acting like there was just the slightest chance it could come to beaumont and he would be shocked if he did. My mom said that last night the chief said it was starting to worry him.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav-Model Runs

#1967 Postby CajunMama » Fri Aug 29, 2008 4:13 pm

ENOUGH! SUSPENSIONS ARE GETTING READY TO BE HANDED OUT. STICK WITH THE MODEL DISCUSSION AND THE MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY
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#1968 Postby dwg71 » Fri Aug 29, 2008 4:29 pm

When is the 18ZGFS supposed to roll out, should be any minute right??
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#1969 Postby Agua » Fri Aug 29, 2008 4:30 pm

Again, does anyone know if the G IV data will be FULLY ingested by the 00z runs, or will it be 06z?
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Re: Re:

#1970 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Fri Aug 29, 2008 4:33 pm

gboudx wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Not a Texas storm yet but getting closer. I knew the NHC would shift the track that much westward until the GDFL come aboard.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad


I'm in the 5 day cone. Eastern Dallas suburb.
Same here. lol. Pretty rare that you see a cone extend all the way into central Oklahoma...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... 16W_sm.gif
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav-Model Runs

#1971 Postby rtd2 » Fri Aug 29, 2008 4:35 pm

Agua wrote:Again, does anyone know if the G IV data will be FULLY ingested by the 00z runs, or will it be 06z?




I'm wondering too... :D but My guess would be 06z t
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav-Model Runs

#1972 Postby N2Storms » Fri Aug 29, 2008 4:37 pm

[quote="rtd2"][quote="Agua"]Again, does anyone know if the G IV data will be FULLY ingested by the 00z runs, or will it be 06z?[/quote]



I'm wondering too... :D but My guess would be 06z t[/quote]


I think someone mentioned earlier that the 00zs would have the benefit of the G IV data...don't quote me on that but I read that in an earlier post
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Re:

#1973 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 29, 2008 4:38 pm

Agua wrote:Again, does anyone know if the G IV data will be FULLY ingested by the 00z runs, or will it be 06z?


Normally, the data is entered at 00z.
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Re: ATL: Hurricane Gustav-Model Runs

#1974 Postby rtd2 » Fri Aug 29, 2008 4:41 pm

thanks to both of you....I must say thats pretty fast
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#1975 Postby BigB0882 » Fri Aug 29, 2008 4:44 pm

Would anyone be willing to guess a reason for the models shifting West? I havent really heard anything mentioned today that would indicate a MORE westward motion. I have, on the other hand, heard the arguments for a more possible NW or NNW motion for a short time which ended up shifting the models a little East this morning. Just curious. I know there has to be a reason, it wasn't just one model that shifted.
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#1976 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 29, 2008 4:46 pm

Well the models have shifted westwards, bringing Texas once again back into play, very interesting to see these models shift back and forth, either way this is clearly going to be a large and powerful hurricane in the gulf.
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Re:

#1977 Postby dwg71 » Fri Aug 29, 2008 4:48 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Would anyone be willing to guess a reason for the models shifting West? I havent really heard anything mentioned today that would indicate a MORE westward motion. I have, on the other hand, heard the arguments for a more possible NW or NNW motion for a short time which ended up shifting the models a little East this morning. Just curious. I know there has to be a reason, it wasn't just one model that shifted.


I think the talk of more nnw is due to the depth of the trough, not sure if the models had any of that data. We will see, what happens. GFS will be an indicator of location. I dont expect anything too terribly different, but who knows. It should be out, at least to 72 hours or so, if someone knows where to look?
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Re:

#1978 Postby perk » Fri Aug 29, 2008 4:50 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Not a Texas storm yet but getting closer. I knew the NHC would not shift the track that much westward until the GDFL comes aboard.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad




I did'nt think they would shift it at all, which was the case. The NHC was not going to shift their track on one model run, plus they made it quite clear that they think the GFDL and GFS solutions are more believeable.
Last edited by perk on Fri Aug 29, 2008 5:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Re:

#1979 Postby GraysonDave » Fri Aug 29, 2008 4:52 pm

dwg71 wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:Would anyone be willing to guess a reason for the models shifting West? I havent really heard anything mentioned today that would indicate a MORE westward motion. I have, on the other hand, heard the arguments for a more possible NW or NNW motion for a short time which ended up shifting the models a little East this morning. Just curious. I know there has to be a reason, it wasn't just one model that shifted.


I think the talk of more nnw is due to the depth of the trough, not sure if the models had any of that data. We will see, what happens. GFS will be an indicator of location. I dont expect anything too terribly different, but who knows. It should be out, at least to 72 hours or so, if someone knows where to look?


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... ib/gfs/12/

Look at the very bottom of this list for the ten_m_loop.shtml file. The file gets updated every five minutes or so. Doesn't look like it has started just yet.
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#1980 Postby jasons2k » Fri Aug 29, 2008 4:57 pm

Jeff Lindner said earlier today some of the GIV data would be ingested tonight, but not fully ingested until the runs tomorrow AM.
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