ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[Vortex]

18Z Nogaps brings a powerful hurricane towards s.fl...many of the trends continue to support a hurricane approaching south florida/keys on wed night/thur.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008082918

[KWT]

Very interesting so many models are keen to bring this in as a fairly powerful system, they must really be missing the shear?

[fci]

18Z Nogaps brings a powerful hurricane towards s.fl...many of the trends continue to support a hurricane approaching south florida/keys on wed night/thur.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008082918

Sorry Vortex but where are the
"many of the trends continue to support a hurricane approaching south florida/keys on wed night/thur" ?

Cetainly NOGAPS has not proven to be reliable recently!

[eastcoastFL]

I believe it is still very soon to tell. As we see with many systems the atmosphere conditions change often and storms slow down or speed up and don't seem to enter areas at times they were expected to. Just stay prepared in south florida and the keys as we have a long wait to see what actualy comes out of hanna

[webke]

storms in NC wrote:
Wannabewxman79 wrote:
I posted this earlier but I don't think it went through. I don't post much, more of an observer but there are some people on here that think ever strom that develops in the atlantic is going to go through Florida. Now, granted, you guys have had a few years of bad luck (Wilmington,NC here so I know from the mid to late 90s) but just because a storm is in the Atlantic some 400 miles from shore in 5 days by the models that does not mean it will end up in your backyard. Most of the storms this time of year get caught up in troughs and such and go NW, NNW, N, and so on. So just sit back and see what happens as you all know crap will change alot in the next few days.


Couldn't have siad it any better. Nice post


Just to play the "devil's advocate" here and jump in...
There are absolutely no forecasts that point to anything you have said in your post, or at least none I have seen. I can understand that you would feel the need to monitor it as you should considering all the scares we have had which became your problems, a la Floyd. But in this case the synoptics clearly point to this being a problem farther south Cuba to central Florida. The storm would have to stall for more than half a week just off the florida coast for this to even be quasi-possibly a NC problem. But even then the projected weather paterns would pull Hannah straight out to sea... possibly a problem for Bermuda at most.

I know people get excited about weather coming their way, and this causes divergent opinions about where the storms will go... but in this case if you could please proove any of your points that would be helpful to me and others that have heard not a thing about what you write.

Thanks,
-Eric


Peronally, All I think that they are trying to say is that they understand Florida has the greatest chance to get hit by a storm, but that have been hit also, and that they would like to be able to be part of the discussion even though they don't live in Florida, After all a storm as large as Hanna can affect many areas of the United States, and everyone that could be affected only wants a chance to discuss and try to relate to the others involved. In my opinion there is no reason why to ever to get a personal level about a storm because of where it may go or make landfall.

[meteorologyman]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

I may have a reason why models supporta major Hurricane. I don't know how to explain in it words so I'll just tell you how to draw it. This is general idea, I don't know what kind of shear is out there or in what direction its going

Draw a circle (that will be your hurricane). Keep in mind hurricanes rotate counter clockwise (left). on the NW quadrent draw a line northeast to southwest on the edge of the circle. (that will be your shear with rain). The shear is moving SW. now imagine the Hurricane rotating it instead of punching through. what happens to your shear? It get wraped around the circle (hurricane). So instead of ripping it to shreds it uses it as fuel generator. I think that one of mothers nature curve ball.

[Blown Away]

I wish we could get an idea on the 5+ day intensity: SHIPS models have Hanna at 86 mph, NHC says TS, Nogaps & Euro have a big hurricane near SFL, local NWS talking about strong upper level winds. Just confusing!

[NativeFloridaGirl]

storms in NC wrote:
Wannabewxman79 wrote:
I posted this earlier but I don't think it went through. I don't post much, more of an observer but there are some people on here that think ever strom that develops in the atlantic is going to go through Florida. Now, granted, you guys have had a few years of bad luck (Wilmington,NC here so I know from the mid to late 90s) but just because a storm is in the Atlantic some 400 miles from shore in 5 days by the models that does not mean it will end up in your backyard. Most of the storms this time of year get caught up in troughs and such and go NW, NNW, N, and so on. So just sit back and see what happens as you all know crap will change alot in the next few days.


Couldn't have siad it any better. Nice post


Just to play the "devil's advocate" here and jump in...
There are absolutely no forecasts that point to anything you have said in your post, or at least none I have seen. I can understand that you would feel the need to monitor it as you should considering all the scares we have had which became your problems, a la Floyd. But in this case the synoptics clearly point to this being a problem farther south Cuba to central Florida. The storm would have to stall for more than half a week just off the florida coast for this to even be quasi-possibly a NC problem. But even then the projected weather paterns would pull Hannah straight out to sea... possibly a problem for Bermuda at most.

I know people get excited about weather coming their way, and this causes divergent opinions about where the storms will go... but in this case if you could please proove any of your points that would be helpful to me and others that have heard not a thing about what you write.

Thanks,
-Eric


Peronally, All I think that they are trying to say is that they understand Florida has the greatest chance to get hit by a storm, but that have been hit also, and that they would like to be able to be part of the discussion even though they don't live in Florida, After all a storm as large as Hanna can affect many areas of the United States, and everyone that could be affected only wants a chance to discuss and try to relate to the others involved. In my opinion there is no reason why to ever to get a personal level about a storm because of where it may go or make landfall.

I'm sorry but I don't believe that anyone has been told they can't be part of the discussion because they do not live in Florida. Actually even folks on the Gulf coast have posted expressing their own concern for Hanna after Gustav. People are simply reacting to models and giving their own ideas of an eventual landfall. I'll agree that some seem to get over-excited, but you can't control another persons fears. Obviously, I live on the east coast of Florida and I'm keeping an eye on Hanna, but am going about my holiday weekend as planned. The models were totally screwed up with Fay and so far it's the same with Hanna. Let's give everyone a little slack. This is going to be a long week for everyone between Gustav and Hanna.

~Beth~

[webke]

Beth,
I am sorry if I offended you because that was not my intent.

[captain east]

Does anyone know when we will have a clear indication of where this thing is going.

[Blown Away]

Looks like the LLC is almost completely exposed moving due W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[meteorologyman]

Does anyone know when we will have a clear indication of where this thing is going.

I don't.
I'm afraid to say that sometimes we won't know until it hits. For Example

Category 5 Hurricane Floyd in 1999. Expected to go straight through central Florida and cause catastrophic damage. At the last second it pulled like a charlie manuever. It went NW to due N threatening the Carolinas. Funny.... that's exactly where we evacuated b/c my grandmother onced lived there. SO now we were like oh s**t the storm is following us.

Sorry not to bring any relief to your question

[Evil Jeremy]

Does anyone know when we will have a clear indication of where this thing is going.

No, but in a week from now, we will know where Hanna has been.

[Blown Away]

They like to be different?

[eastcoastFL]

I think she will either be over land or water in one week

[ericinmia]

I am very suprised this hasn't been posted yet, although it is a Friday... and most people are out and about.

JB has put out his Official Hannah forecast:

Code: Select all

Initial:      22 north    64 west    992 mb     70 mph
Sunday:       24 north    68 west    971 mb     95 mph
Monday:       26 north    71 west    961 mb    115 mph
Tuesday:      25 north    73 west    951 mb    120 mph
Wednesday:    24 north    74 west    946 mb    125 mph
Thursday:     23 north    77 west    936 mb    135 mph
Friday:       25 north    81 west    936 mb    135 mph
Saturday:     29 north    85 west    946 mb    120 mph
Sunday:       33 north    89 west    996 mb     45 mph ( inland)

He has some guts to do this I suppose... Thats quite a long range forecast.

[stayawaynow]

I think she will either be over land or water in one week

Excellent Answer

[Blown Away]

I am very suprised this hasn't been posted yet, although it is a Friday... and most people are out and about.

JB has put out his Official Hannah forecast:

Code: Select all

Initial:      22 north    64 west    992 mb     70 mph
Sunday:       24 north    68 west    971 mb     95 mph
Monday:       26 north    71 west    961 mb    115 mph
Tuesday:      25 north    73 west    951 mb    120 mph
Wednesday:    24 north    74 west    946 mb    125 mph
Thursday:     23 north    77 west    936 mb    135 mph
[b]Friday:       25 north    81 west    936 mb    135 mph[/b]
Saturday:     29 north    85 west    946 mb    120 mph
Sunday:       33 north    89 west    996 mb     45 mph ( inland)

He has some guts to do this I suppose... Thats quite a long range forecast.

25N/81W is inland, how do I know I just looked down and saw my hardwood floor.

[captain east]

I think she will either be over land or water in one week

thanks.

[SouthFLTropics]

I am very suprised this hasn't been posted yet, although it is a Friday... and most people are out and about.

JB has put out his Official Hannah forecast:

Code: Select all

Initial: 22 north 64 west 992 mb 70 mph
Sunday: 24 north 68 west 971 mb 95 mph
Monday: 26 north 71 west 961 mb 115 mph
Tuesday: 25 north 73 west 951 mb 120 mph
Wednesday: 24 north 74 west 946 mb 125 mph
Thursday: 23 north 77 west 936 mb 135 mph
[b]Friday: 25 north 81 west 936 mb 135 mph[/b]
Saturday: 29 north 85 west 946 mb 120 mph
Sunday: 33 north 89 west 996 mb 45 mph ( inland)

He has some guts to do this I suppose... Thats quite a long range forecast.

25N/81W is inland, how do I know I just looked down and saw my hardwood floor.

25N/81W would put it barely to the NW of the Keys between Marathon and Key Largo...But I think you were joking Blown Away...We are closer to 27 North up here on the TC...

SFT