ATL IKE: Models Discussion
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ATL IKE: Models Discussion
WHXX01 KWBC 291250
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 UTC FRI AUG 29 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20080829 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080829 1200 080830 0000 080830 1200 080831 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 20.5W 15.0N 24.4W 15.5N 28.3W 15.5N 32.3W
BAMD 14.2N 20.5W 14.8N 23.1W 15.6N 26.1W 16.5N 29.3W
BAMM 14.2N 20.5W 14.9N 23.6W 15.5N 27.0W 16.0N 30.5W
LBAR 14.2N 20.5W 14.9N 23.6W 15.8N 26.8W 16.9N 30.0W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080831 1200 080901 1200 080902 1200 080903 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 35.8W 14.4N 39.7W 15.2N 42.1W 16.7N 46.7W
BAMD 17.3N 32.8W 18.7N 40.0W 20.1N 46.5W 22.6N 52.3W
BAMM 16.3N 34.2W 16.4N 40.4W 16.4N 45.5W 16.7N 50.4W
LBAR 17.9N 33.1W 20.2N 39.4W 20.9N 46.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 61KTS 75KTS 81KTS 80KTS
DSHP 61KTS 75KTS 81KTS 80KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 20.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 17.0W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 11.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 UTC FRI AUG 29 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20080829 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080829 1200 080830 0000 080830 1200 080831 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 20.5W 15.0N 24.4W 15.5N 28.3W 15.5N 32.3W
BAMD 14.2N 20.5W 14.8N 23.1W 15.6N 26.1W 16.5N 29.3W
BAMM 14.2N 20.5W 14.9N 23.6W 15.5N 27.0W 16.0N 30.5W
LBAR 14.2N 20.5W 14.9N 23.6W 15.8N 26.8W 16.9N 30.0W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080831 1200 080901 1200 080902 1200 080903 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 35.8W 14.4N 39.7W 15.2N 42.1W 16.7N 46.7W
BAMD 17.3N 32.8W 18.7N 40.0W 20.1N 46.5W 22.6N 52.3W
BAMM 16.3N 34.2W 16.4N 40.4W 16.4N 45.5W 16.7N 50.4W
LBAR 17.9N 33.1W 20.2N 39.4W 20.9N 46.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 61KTS 75KTS 81KTS 80KTS
DSHP 61KTS 75KTS 81KTS 80KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 20.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 17.0W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 11.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
12z HWRF tracks west to westnorthwest not threatening the Caribbean:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
Hopefully it will be a fish but those spegghaeti runs are close to Bermuda.
Don't let your guard down.
Don't let your guard down.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
593
WHXX01 KWBC 300049
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0049 UTC SAT AUG 30 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20080830 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080830 0000 080830 1200 080831 0000 080831 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 22.5W 14.9N 25.3W 16.0N 28.8W 17.2N 32.6W
BAMD 13.5N 22.5W 14.4N 24.8W 15.3N 27.2W 16.1N 30.1W
BAMM 13.5N 22.5W 14.6N 24.9W 15.6N 27.6W 16.5N 30.8W
LBAR 13.5N 22.5W 14.2N 25.0W 15.2N 27.7W 16.2N 30.9W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080901 0000 080902 0000 080903 0000 080904 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 36.3W 20.6N 43.6W 24.9N 50.5W 32.0N 55.3W
BAMD 17.0N 33.2W 18.4N 39.5W 19.9N 46.2W 21.7N 52.8W
BAMM 17.5N 34.0W 19.2N 40.8W 21.4N 47.6W 24.6N 54.1W
LBAR 17.3N 34.0W 20.2N 40.9W 22.2N 49.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 53KTS 66KTS 69KTS 70KTS
DSHP 53KTS 66KTS 69KTS 70KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 22.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 20.2W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 17.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
WHXX01 KWBC 300049
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0049 UTC SAT AUG 30 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20080830 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080830 0000 080830 1200 080831 0000 080831 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 22.5W 14.9N 25.3W 16.0N 28.8W 17.2N 32.6W
BAMD 13.5N 22.5W 14.4N 24.8W 15.3N 27.2W 16.1N 30.1W
BAMM 13.5N 22.5W 14.6N 24.9W 15.6N 27.6W 16.5N 30.8W
LBAR 13.5N 22.5W 14.2N 25.0W 15.2N 27.7W 16.2N 30.9W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080901 0000 080902 0000 080903 0000 080904 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 36.3W 20.6N 43.6W 24.9N 50.5W 32.0N 55.3W
BAMD 17.0N 33.2W 18.4N 39.5W 19.9N 46.2W 21.7N 52.8W
BAMM 17.5N 34.0W 19.2N 40.8W 21.4N 47.6W 24.6N 54.1W
LBAR 17.3N 34.0W 20.2N 40.9W 22.2N 49.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 53KTS 66KTS 69KTS 70KTS
DSHP 53KTS 66KTS 69KTS 70KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 22.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 20.2W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 17.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
The 00:00 UTC SHIP forecast shows light shear thru the period.
Code: Select all
ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING *
* INVEST AL972008 08/30/08 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 45 53 59 66 70 69 68 70
V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 45 53 59 66 70 69 68 70
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 43 49 56 64 70 74 76
SHEAR (KTS) 8 8 4 4 5 6 7 5 8 7 14 10 9
SHEAR DIR 7 9 328 350 286 245 222 232 109 73 101 105 129
SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.6 26.1 26.0 26.2 26.8 27.1 27.2 27.9
POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 131 130 127 122 117 116 118 124 128 129 138
ADJ. POT. INT. 128 129 130 128 125 120 114 113 114 120 123 122 130
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 11
700-500 MB RH 79 77 77 76 77 70 67 59 59 52 54 51 47
GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 9 10 8 6 4 LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 93 74 68 71 78 61 51 24 19 8 -25 -25 -22
200 MB DIV 78 31 51 43 31 23 20 16 14 11 -16 13 19
LAND (KM) 557 672 795 939 1086 1435 1786 2155 2031 1904 1853 1619 1389
LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.5 17.5 18.3 19.2 20.1 21.4 22.8 24.6
LONG(DEG W) 22.5 23.7 24.9 26.3 27.6 30.8 34.0 37.4 40.8 44.2 47.6 50.9 54.1
STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 15 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 17
HEAT CONTENT 5 7 8 3 6 4 0 0 3 14 18 17 29
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 13. 13. 13.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 28. 34. 41. 45. 44. 43. 45.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 28. 34. 41. 45. 44. 43. 45.
** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008 INVEST 08/30/08 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
hmmmmm... The first run (cyclone eye posted up above) forecast the wave to go NW. on the 2nd run (i just posted) showed the center going due west and is now expecting to take a sharp NW turn????
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
06z HWRF also has a longtracking hurricane,but distint from GFDL,this model does not go north.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
GFDL is again with it.Here is the 12z run:
WHXX04 KWBC 311728
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L
INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 31
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 15.7 30.9 270./12.0
6 16.7 32.9 297./21.2
12 17.4 35.1 287./22.1
18 17.8 37.1 280./20.0
24 17.8 39.3 271./20.4
30 17.9 40.6 274./12.7
36 18.6 42.7 288./20.5
42 18.9 43.8 285./11.1
48 19.3 44.9 291./11.4
54 20.1 46.1 302./13.7
60 21.1 47.6 304./17.1
66 21.9 49.3 296./17.5
72 22.8 51.0 299./18.4
78 23.6 52.6 296./17.0
84 24.4 54.1 297./15.4
90 25.2 55.6 300./16.3
96 26.1 57.1 300./15.6
102 27.0 58.2 309./13.0
108 27.7 59.1 306./11.2
114 28.4 60.0 307./10.5
120 28.5 60.9 277./ 7.9
126 28.5 61.9 272./ 8.6
WHXX04 KWBC 311728
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L
INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 31
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 15.7 30.9 270./12.0
6 16.7 32.9 297./21.2
12 17.4 35.1 287./22.1
18 17.8 37.1 280./20.0
24 17.8 39.3 271./20.4
30 17.9 40.6 274./12.7
36 18.6 42.7 288./20.5
42 18.9 43.8 285./11.1
48 19.3 44.9 291./11.4
54 20.1 46.1 302./13.7
60 21.1 47.6 304./17.1
66 21.9 49.3 296./17.5
72 22.8 51.0 299./18.4
78 23.6 52.6 296./17.0
84 24.4 54.1 297./15.4
90 25.2 55.6 300./16.3
96 26.1 57.1 300./15.6
102 27.0 58.2 309./13.0
108 27.7 59.1 306./11.2
114 28.4 60.0 307./10.5
120 28.5 60.9 277./ 7.9
126 28.5 61.9 272./ 8.6
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
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Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
WHXX01 KWBC 010040
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0040 UTC MON SEP 1 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20080901 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080901 0000 080901 1200 080902 0000 080902 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 34.7W 18.1N 37.8W 19.3N 41.0W 20.5N 44.4W
BAMD 16.9N 34.7W 17.6N 37.4W 18.3N 40.2W 18.8N 43.2W
BAMM 16.9N 34.7W 17.7N 37.7W 18.6N 40.7W 19.3N 43.8W
LBAR 16.9N 34.7W 18.0N 37.6W 19.1N 40.9W 20.3N 44.3W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 49KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080903 0000 080904 0000 080905 0000 080906 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.1N 47.9W 26.0N 55.1W 30.1N 60.2W 31.6N 62.7W
BAMD 19.2N 46.1W 19.9N 52.5W 20.2N 59.1W 19.6N 66.1W
BAMM 20.1N 46.8W 21.9N 53.3W 23.8N 59.5W 24.0N 64.8W
LBAR 21.8N 47.7W 25.7N 53.5W 28.1N 56.9W 26.8N 58.8W
SHIP 54KTS 60KTS 59KTS 55KTS
DSHP 54KTS 60KTS 59KTS 55KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.9N LONCUR = 34.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 15.9N LONM12 = 31.8W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 15.8N LONM24 = 29.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 375NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0040 UTC MON SEP 1 2008
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20080901 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080901 0000 080901 1200 080902 0000 080902 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 34.7W 18.1N 37.8W 19.3N 41.0W 20.5N 44.4W
BAMD 16.9N 34.7W 17.6N 37.4W 18.3N 40.2W 18.8N 43.2W
BAMM 16.9N 34.7W 17.7N 37.7W 18.6N 40.7W 19.3N 43.8W
LBAR 16.9N 34.7W 18.0N 37.6W 19.1N 40.9W 20.3N 44.3W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 49KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080903 0000 080904 0000 080905 0000 080906 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.1N 47.9W 26.0N 55.1W 30.1N 60.2W 31.6N 62.7W
BAMD 19.2N 46.1W 19.9N 52.5W 20.2N 59.1W 19.6N 66.1W
BAMM 20.1N 46.8W 21.9N 53.3W 23.8N 59.5W 24.0N 64.8W
LBAR 21.8N 47.7W 25.7N 53.5W 28.1N 56.9W 26.8N 58.8W
SHIP 54KTS 60KTS 59KTS 55KTS
DSHP 54KTS 60KTS 59KTS 55KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.9N LONCUR = 34.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 15.9N LONM12 = 31.8W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 15.8N LONM24 = 29.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 375NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 142552
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: Invest 97L Model Runs
18z HWRF run that tracks to the Leeward islands.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
18z GFDL:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
18z GFDL:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
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