ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[AJC3]

I've saved those last 2 Accuwx/JB forecasts for posterity.

[ericinmia]

I'm at 25.92 North and 80.31 West...

I'm dissapointed the JB didn't go out to the thousands place... It would have made the difference between just off the tip of florida and the northern sections of Dade. I'm just kidding of course.

[AJC3]

25N/81W is inland, how do I know I just looked down and saw my hardwood floor.

Is your house on the west side of Florida Bay?

[Blown Away]

I am very suprised this hasn't been posted yet, although it is a Friday... and most people are out and about.

JB has put out his Official Hannah forecast:

Code: Select all

Initial: 22 north 64 west 992 mb 70 mph
Sunday: 24 north 68 west 971 mb 95 mph
Monday: 26 north 71 west 961 mb 115 mph
Tuesday: 25 north 73 west 951 mb 120 mph
Wednesday: 24 north 74 west 946 mb 125 mph
Thursday: 23 north 77 west 936 mb 135 mph
[b]Friday: 25 north 81 west 936 mb 135 mph[/b]
Saturday: 29 north 85 west 946 mb 120 mph
Sunday: 33 north 89 west 996 mb 45 mph ( inland)

He has some guts to do this I suppose... Thats quite a long range forecast.

25N/81W is inland, how do I know I just looked down and saw my hardwood floor.

25N/81W would put it barely to the NW of the Keys between Marathon and Key Largo...But I think you were joking Blown Away...We are closer to 27 North up here on the TC...

SFT

I'm in Boca rate now, I know I'm at 27.1N in Hobe Sound, your right 25 is N of Keys, but you got my attempt at humor, good enough for me!

[ericinmia]

25N/81W is inland, how do I know I just looked down and saw my hardwood floor.

Is your house on the west side of Florida Bay?

I thought the same thing (already knowing where that absolute cords plotted to), but I didn't want to be the person to make that comment.

[Blown Away]

Got ahead of myself, the 5 screaming kids under 9 are starting to wear me down.

[SouthFLTropics]

Man I'll tell you something...IF we get spared a big hit from Hanna I think I am going to send that ULL a bouquet of flowers and some chocolates. Hanna's convection is huge and it has good outflow to the North, East, and South. But on the west side that ULL is kicking her tush!!! Keep it up ULL

SFT

[jlauderdal]

I've saved those last 2 Accuwx/JB forecasts for posterity.

do you have the original gustav where it came off cuba and made a straight line right at miami, at least nhc had the idea of it moving north and thenheading west, they were just on the wrong side of the cuba but the idea was correct and has verified more or less

[meteorologyman]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

I think Florida needs to get prepared, because I just notice something very scary.
we have Gustav expecting to come through the gulf and possibly stall. now we all know this thing will be huge so Florida can see heavy rain from this for 3-5days then here comes hanna whether we get direct hit or it goes south of us it too will bring in heavy rain for FL for another 3-7 days. I'm not trying to scare anyone but I don't want that kind of surprise knocking on our door step. TC effects are very far especially strong ones

[jlauderdal]

I am very suprised this hasn't been posted yet, although it is a Friday... and most people are out and about.

JB has put out his Official Hannah forecast:

Code: Select all

Initial:      22 north    64 west    992 mb     70 mph
Sunday:       24 north    68 west    971 mb     95 mph
Monday:       26 north    71 west    961 mb    115 mph
Tuesday:      25 north    73 west    951 mb    120 mph
Wednesday:    24 north    74 west    946 mb    125 mph
Thursday:     23 north    77 west    936 mb    135 mph
[b]Friday:       25 north    81 west    936 mb    135 mph[/b]
Saturday:     29 north    85 west    946 mb    120 mph
Sunday:       33 north    89 west    996 mb     45 mph ( inland)

He has some guts to do this I suppose... Thats quite a long range forecast.

25N/81W is inland, how do I know I just looked down and saw my hardwood floor.

maybe if port st lucie gets blown off the map from jb's cat 4 hannah will you be at those cordinates

[SouthFLTropics]

I am very suprised this hasn't been posted yet, although it is a Friday... and most people are out and about.

JB has put out his Official Hannah forecast:

Code: Select all

Initial:      22 north    64 west    992 mb     70 mph
Sunday:       24 north    68 west    971 mb     95 mph
Monday:       26 north    71 west    961 mb    115 mph
Tuesday:      25 north    73 west    951 mb    120 mph
Wednesday:    24 north    74 west    946 mb    125 mph
Thursday:     23 north    77 west    936 mb    135 mph
[b]Friday:       25 north    81 west    936 mb    135 mph[/b]
Saturday:     29 north    85 west    946 mb    120 mph
Sunday:       33 north    89 west    996 mb     45 mph ( inland)

He has some guts to do this I suppose... Thats quite a long range forecast.

25N/81W is inland, how do I know I just looked down and saw my hardwood floor.

maybe if port st lucie gets blown off the map from jb's cat 4 hannah will you be at those cordinates

jlauderdale

[AJC3]

I've saved those last 2 Accuwx/JB forecasts for posterity.

do you have the original gustav where it came off cuba and made a straight line right at miami, at least nhc had the idea of it moving north and thenheading west, they were just on the wrong side of the cuba but the idea was correct and has verified more or less

See PM

[Bocadude85]

will be interesting to see if hanna makes it through the night

[fci]

Does anyone know when we will have a clear indication of where this thing is going.

No, but in a week from now, we will know where Hanna has been.

Maybe not....

(although tomorrow we will know where she had been tonight)

Seriously, I've seen things over the past couple of days about stalling and other weird things so this time next week it may be threatening somewhere and not yet have made landfall.
Or could be entering the GOM where Gustav enters a week earlier

[fci]

I am very suprised this hasn't been posted yet, although it is a Friday... and most people are out and about.

JB has put out his Official Hannah forecast:

Code: Select all

Initial: 22 north 64 west 992 mb 70 mph
Sunday: 24 north 68 west 971 mb 95 mph
Monday: 26 north 71 west 961 mb 115 mph
Tuesday: 25 north 73 west 951 mb 120 mph
Wednesday: 24 north 74 west 946 mb 125 mph
Thursday: 23 north 77 west 936 mb 135 mph
[b]Friday: 25 north 81 west 936 mb 135 mph[/b]
Saturday: 29 north 85 west 946 mb 120 mph
Sunday: 33 north 89 west 996 mb 45 mph ( inland)

He has some guts to do this I suppose... Thats quite a long range forecast.

25N/81W is inland, how do I know I just looked down and saw my hardwood floor.

25N/81W would put it barely to the NW of the Keys between Marathon and Key Largo...But I think you were joking Blown Away...We are closer to 27 North up here on the TC...

SFT

I'm 26.6 and 80.2 in Palm Beach County so that is inland in Dade County her way up to the west coast

Look at 2 days later how far he has her moving 8N and 8W!!

[meteorologyman]

JUST A REMINDER
I noticed that you guys keep quoting on what JB said, and I noticed over 1/2 of the page is taken just by 4 post, I don't want admin. screaming at us. just watching our back. just say something like.... up above jb said "we will experience 135 mph wind" is he flipping crazy what kind of.............etc

[curtadams]

You can see the LLC on IR2 imagery (unusual with the horrible new IR2 color scheme). http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

It is completely detached from convection, W of the convection area and traveling SW. 90 degrees away from the NHC (and JB ) trajectory. So it looks like the models have completely missed what's going on (whatever it is).

Why they decided to depict low clouds (main use for IR2 in tropical imaging) as light medium grey on medium light gray is beyond me.

[AJC3]

You can see the LLC on IR2 imagery (unusual with the horrible new IR2 color scheme). http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

It is completely detached from convection, W of the convection area and traveling SW. 90 degrees away from the NHC (and JB ) trajectory. So it looks like the models have completely missed what's going on (whatever it is).

Why they decided to depict low clouds (main use for IR2 in tropical imaging) as light medium grey on medium light gray is beyond me.

Man, I hate it too. The other IR2 enhancement used on the regular (non-storm floater) sections is much better. No idea at all why it was switched, but it makes it much more difficult to detect low cloud features IMHO.

[Sanibel]

That Bastardi track goes over the upper Keys and right over me a few miles per hour less than the 135mph predicted for the Keys.

[Bocadude85]

You can see the LLC on IR2 imagery (unusual with the horrible new IR2 color scheme). http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

It is completely detached from convection, W of the convection area and traveling SW. 90 degrees away from the NHC (and JB ) trajectory. So it looks like the models have completely missed what's going on (whatever it is).

Why they decided to depict low clouds (main use for IR2 in tropical imaging) as light medium grey on medium light gray is beyond me.

yup hanna is looking sick tonight.. will say though that convection is starting to burst again like it has been doing the last few days.. may burst enough to cover the LLC later tonight..