ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[RL3AO]

88kt FL is about 50 miles NE of the center.

[tolakram]

Hanna's outer fringe has already put a dent in Gus' outer ENE fringe:

There is a ULL between the two so I think you are mistaken.

[soonertwister]

Pro's is there any mid level shear or dry air effecting this. I'm asking because of the fairly slow strengthing of the system over the last few hours. Thank you.

The pressure has been falling fast, what do you mean?

What is keeping the floor from droping out. In what is to keep it from doing so. That is what I'm asking.

You are talking about explosive deepening (intensification). It's been my experience that a storm (usually) has been a hurricane for some period of time before that occurs. It's not a universal response, but I think it applies most of the time.

[93superstorm]

How strong does FL have to be for a cat 2?

[CrazyC83]

Since we missed some critical data, it very well might be higher. 88 kt FL supports 75 kt at the surface, but given the position and missed data, I'd say 80 kt intensity right now.

[CrazyC83]

How strong does FL have to be for a cat 2?

At that level, about 100 kt.

[Just Joshing You]

Those 88KT FL winds were in 995+ MB pressure.. did they miss the center again?

[CrazyC83]

Those 88KT FL winds were in 995+ MB pressure.. did they miss the center again?

995mb? The storm's pressure is around 970-973mb so no, it is far from the center.

[canegrl04]

I heard that right now the odds of Gus hitting NOLA are better than 50/50 .I hope like hell it doesn't

[dhweather]

There is a vigorous upper level low West of Hannah, prohibiting Hannah from developing.

[Just Joshing You]

Those 88KT FL winds were in 995+ MB pressure.. did they miss the center again?

995mb? The storm's pressure is around 970-973mb so no, it is far from the center.

I wasn't saying it was the center.. I'm just asking if they missed the center again as the pressure went straight to 990+s

[CrazyC83]

Those 88KT FL winds were in 995+ MB pressure.. did they miss the center again?

995mb? The storm's pressure is around 970-973mb so no, it is far from the center.

I wasn't saying it was the center.. I'm just asking if they missed the center again as the pressure went straight to 990+s

No, one data set malfunctioned (at the worst possible time - the FL winds might have been higher in that).

[Dean4Storms]

Isn't there a recon discussion thread anymore?

[soonertwister]

I heard that right now the odds of Gus hitting NOLA are better than 50/50 .I hope like hell it doesn't

canegrl, this far out, anyone who makes that assertion is blowing smoke. I've followed tons of hurricanes, and there's no way that it's 50/50 for NOLA right now.

That doesn't mean that they shouldn't be evacuating at-risk populations now or soon. You can't take chances with possible cat-4 or -5 storms.

I'm just glad jindal is in charge, instead of Nagin or LA's former governor.

[btangy]

Pro's is there any mid level shear or dry air effecting this. I'm asking because of the fairly slow strengthing of the system over the last few hours. Thank you.

I was wondering this myself given the episodic convective pattern we're seeing. Seems Gustav, even though it's strengthening, has a tough time developing a solid CDO. Here's the 12Z sounding out of Grand Cayman (00Z sounding should be out fairly soon). Definitely some dry air at mid-levels at 500mb, so Gustav may have a moisten the mid-levels some before really bombing out.

[Weatherfreak000]

I heard that right now the odds of Gus hitting NOLA are better than 50/50 .I hope like hell it doesn't

At or within 30 miles of NOLA....i'd argue that's accurate.

[soonertwister]

I heard that right now the odds of Gus hitting NOLA are better than 50/50 .I hope like hell it doesn't

At or within 30 miles of NOLA....i'd argue that's accurate.

I'd argue that the chances are less than 30%. We'll see.

[HURAKAN]

Ready ... Set ... Go!

[Dean4Storms]

NO is in danger from this storm but with 3 days at least away I wouldn't put it better than 50/50 right now.

[weatherguru18]

I heard that right now the odds of Gus hitting NOLA are better than 50/50 .I hope like hell it doesn't

At or within 30 miles of NOLA....i'd argue that's accurate.

I'd argue that the chances are less than 30%. We'll see.

I agree. I think those in Lake Charles should be very concerned. This is not a N.O. hurricane.