ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[gatorcane]

I think Gustav looks to be taking a bit of NNW jog over the past couple of hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[dhweather]

I'm wondering....When the forecasters say a storm will be blocked or move up the side of a high pressure system, how close does the eye get to the boundary of the high? Does the eyewall bounce into it or ride along the ridge, or does some other part of the storm touch the high? Is it the outskirts of the storm say 150-250 miles out from center that bumps into and reacts to the high?

You are close. High pressure circulates clockwise (anticyclone) while Tropical systems circulate counter clockwise (cyclone). Tropical systems are easily influenced by other factors. Think of a hurricane as a top spinning on a table. If you barely touch the top, it spins wildly out of control.

As the hurricane approaches the high pressure ridge, the hurricane usually gets caught in the flow around that high and rides around the periphery of it.

I hope that is of some help to you.

[cpdaman]

Pro's is there any mid level shear or dry air effecting this. I'm asking because of the fairly slow strengthing of the system over the last few hours. Thank you.

I was wondering this myself given the episodic convective pattern we're seeing. Seems Gustav, even though it's strengthening, has a tough time developing a solid CDO. Here's the 12Z sounding out of Grand Cayman (00Z sounding should be out fairly soon). Definitely some dry air at mid-levels at 500mb, so Gustav may have a moisten the mid-levels some before really bombing out.

any pro's care to chime in on this, btangy well done

[gatorcane]

when I look at the WV loop. I do not see any signs the trough is moving out just yet. I see it digging down into the Central / EGOM. It should lift out soon though (according to the official forecast)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[Portastorm]

This is getting comical ... I read where Gustav is heading more west bound then someone posts a north-northwest movement. Which is it?!

[gatorcane]

This is getting comical ... I read where Gustav is heading more west bound then someone posts a north-northwest movement. Which is it?!

I don't know I could be wrong but when I look at the SAT loops the entire mass of convection seems to be moving more NNW -- could be shear?

[dhweather]

I think Gustav looks to be taking a bit of NNW jog over the past couple of hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

Not really, the explosion of convection on the north side does things to your eyes. Trust me on this, I've stared at these things for years.


watch the floater, you'll see it's right on track.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[weatherguru18]

This is getting comical ... I read where Gustav is heading more west bound then someone posts a north-northwest movement. Which is it?!

New Orleans. Ask anybody. Gimme a __________ break.

[Portastorm]

This is getting comical ... I read where Gustav is heading more west bound then someone posts a north-northwest movement. Which is it?!

I don't know I could be wrong but when I look at the SAT loops the entire mass of convection seems to be moving more NNW -- could be shear?

Yeah gator, I think it might be an illusion due to the convection. I could be wrong, too, but overall I'd say it's moving west-northwest. Guess we'll know soon enough when the NHC evening advisory comes out.

[HURAKAN]

Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

I don't see any change in movement. It looks to be moving NW.

[Portastorm]

Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

I don't see any change in movement. It looks to be moving NW.

I'm such an amateur! Yeah, looking at that loop it is clearly moving northwest and right along the NHC points.

[dhweather]

This is getting comical ... I read where Gustav is heading more west bound then someone posts a north-northwest movement. Which is it?!

I don't know I could be wrong but when I look at the SAT loops the entire mass of convection seems to be moving more NNW -- could be shear?

Yeah gator, I think it might be an illusion due to the convection. I could be wrong, too, but overall I'd say it's moving west-northwest. Guess we'll know soon enough when the NHC evening advisory comes out.

If you'll tick the box for tropical plots, you'll see Gus is moving right along the NHC's track. It also helps if you turn on lat/lon lines.

[Dean4Storms]

Still looks NW 2me2

[shah8]

cuban radar suggest mostly wnw.

[Weatherfreak000]

The storm appears to be moving fairly quickly now...perhaps faster then the NHC's forecast. But definitely right on the forecast point.

[dhweather]

cuban radar suggest mostly wnw.

Yeah, but Cuban is so far left, their radar can't be trusted.

[Just Joshing You]

This is getting comical ... I read where Gustav is heading more west bound then someone posts a north-northwest movement. Which is it?!

At one point during Fay, in only 2 pages, there were serious posts claiming to see a direction for EVERY point on a compass. W, WNW,WSW,N,NNW,NNE,NE et al.

[Dean4Storms]

cuban radar suggest mostly wnw.

It could be stair stepping around the ridge now, but the overall extrapolated motion is NW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mvtrucking]

This is getting comical ... I read where Gustav is heading more west bound then someone posts a north-northwest movement. Which is it?!

New Orleans. Ask anybody. Gimme a __________ break.

Relax WG. Enjoy tracking the storm..

[Annie Oakley]

"While I think the state and local responses were poor, it was dwarved by the ineptness of the federal government -...."
FEMA is not a rescue agency. Period.