ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[StormWarning1]

GFS rollin...dont like how it started gus below jamica?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

It is west not south of Jamaica on the initialization.
After hour 30 it is slightly west and slower than the 18z run.
Looks like another West shift so far.

[Dean4Storms]

That run is way off of the GFS, it has Gustav missing Cuba all together!

[AL Chili Pepper]

These look pretty much the same to me...only a little faster this time.

18Z at 78 hours:


00Z at 66 hours:

[Steve]

VIPIR also showed a blowup of storms near landfall smacking Lafourche, Terrebonne and St. Mary with landfall in SC LA blowing up some more intense convection on its way up toward the Piney Woods.

Steve

[Viper54r]

What model is that?

[Stormcenter]

VIPIR also showed a blowup of storms near landfall smacking Lafourche, Terrebonne and St. Mary with landfall in SC LA blowing up some more intense convection on its way up toward the Piney Woods.

Steve

Vipir is not over MS. like last night?

[superfly]

GFS stalls Gus off the coast of SW LA.

[srainhoutx]

Stalled at 90 hours.

[Ed Mahmoud]

That run is way off of the GFS, it has Gustav missing Cuba all together!

Check hour 66 500 mb heights vs surface plot. It has the 500 mb vort max right on the coast, while the surface feature is offshore. Perhaps predicting Southerly shear pushing the mid level center North of the surface center.


Or maybe just something screwy with the model.

[O Town]

Can someone please post the steering currents that are likley to effect Gustav?

Thanks in advance

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

[Weatherfreak000]

Edit: Seems to show the same scenario.

[Viper54r]

GFS shows doomsday scenario...seems it shifted east slightly.

Link?

[Ed Mahmoud]

VIPIR also showed a blowup of storms near landfall smacking Lafourche, Terrebonne and St. Mary with landfall in SC LA blowing up some more intense convection on its way up toward the Piney Woods.

Steve

What model is "VIPIR"? Is it some private software marketed to TV stations?

[vaffie]

For what it's worth, the run so far has it arriving just offshore southeastern Louisiana midday Monday and then drifting westward just offshore, then moving inland slowly Tuesday around central Louisiana.

[Steve]

>>Vipir is not over MS. like last night?

No. Looked like St. Mary/Iberia Parish but the map they ran had such a low resolution that I was only able to follow the highest cloudtops.

Steve

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS stalls Gus off the coast of SW LA.

Looks e of NO here

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Steve]

>>What model is "VIPIR"? Is it some private software marketed to TV stations?

Yeah. Fox 8 in New Orleans shows it "because we pay for it" (per Breck who had a great weather cast this evening). VIPIR is often way out to lunch, but it did okay on some of the Fay runs and certainly with Cindy it was on the money. If you do a search for it on Google or Yahoo or whatever, it takes you to a link to the software development company.

Steve

[Stormcenter]

Edit: Seems to show the same scenario.

The GFS sure does have some weird tracks.
Anywy I wouldn't put much faith in these model runs until
Gustav is in the GOM on Saturday.

[Frank P]

GFS stalls Gus off the coast of SW LA.

Looks e of NO here

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

put your curser on NOLA and then run the loop, its west from what I can tell

[superfly]

GFS stalls Gus off the coast of SW LA.

Looks e of NO here

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

What are you talking about, it passes well south of NOLA then stalls for 6-12 hours off the central-SW coast before moving inland near Vermilion Bay (landfall roughly the same as prior runs but slower).