ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[teal61]

GFS stalls Gus off the coast of SW LA.

Looks e of NO here

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

East of New Orleans are you sure, unless they renamed Lake Charles i don't think so.

[Steve]

Yeah, way west of New Orleans somewhere near Vermillion/Cameron Parishes pretty far into SW LA before a stutter step.

Steve

[Stormcenter]

GFS stalls Gus off the coast of SW LA.

Looks e of NO here

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

What are you talking about, it passes well south of NOLA then stalls for 6-12 hours off the central-SW coast before moving inland near Vermilion Bay (landfall roughly the same as prior runs but slower).

You need to track the low (L) not the moisture....it's SW La.(again).

[DESTRUCTION5]

GFS stalls Gus off the coast of SW LA.

Looks e of NO here

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

East of New Orleans are you sure, unless they renamed Lake Charles i don't think so.

Humm..im having java issues i guess..looks like last night run...ignore me...lol

[Weatherfreak000]

It's Central LA. Intune with the NHC forecast.

[ROCK]

That run is way off of the GFS, it has Gustav missing Cuba all together!

Check hour 66 500 mb heights vs surface plot. It has the 500 mb vort max right on the coast, while the surface feature is offshore. Perhaps predicting Southerly shear pushing the mid level center North of the surface center.


Or maybe just something screwy with the model.

AFM had a good explanation of why that is a few pages back.....

[teal61]

Back on the coast south of Lake Charles at 126hrs

[GeneratorPower]

I want to show you something. For all you model lovers out there (you know who you are!) Look at the track below. This is less than 4 days from landfall of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. This is about where we are now with the Gustav, a little less than 4 days from landfall on the northern Gulf Coast.





First of all, the NHC did very well with Katrina. In fact, they did better with Katrina than just about any storm in recent memory. But unfortunately, they were still off by about 150 miles when you look at this graphic (3-days-in-advance). Where did it hit? Buras, LA, about 150 miles to the WEST. You'll also notice that the NHC ended up using nearly *all* of their cone of uncertainty.

During the setup for Katrina, the synoptics were relatively well defined, with Katrina moving along the periphery of a ridge parked over North Florida, etc. Now consider Gustav's current setup. Much more complicated, with several interacting ridges and a possible trough in the middle. Much more difficult to accurately forecast.

What I am saying here is that at 3-4 days out, the landfall point can still be off by quite a bit. In this case, it makes all the difference in the world given the areas possibly impacted.

[ROCK]

I want to show you something. For all you model lovers out there (you know who you are!) Look at the track below. This is less than 4 days from landfall of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. This is about where we are now with the Gustav, a little less than 4 days from landfall on the northern Gulf Coast.





First of all, the NHC did very well with Katrina. In fact, they did better with Katrina than just about any storm in recent memory. But unfortunately, they were still off by about 150 miles when you look at this graphic (3-days-in-advance). Where did it hit? Buras, LA, about 150 miles to the WEST. You'll also notice that the NHC ended up using nearly *all* of their cone of uncertainty.

During the setup for Katrina, the synoptics were relatively well defined, with Katrina moving along the periphery of a ridge parked over North Florida, etc. Now consider Gustav's current setup. Much more complicated, with several interacting ridges and a possible trough in the middle. Much more difficult to accurately forecast.

What I am saying here is that at 3-4 days out, the landfall point can still be off by quite a bit. In this case, it makes all the difference in the world given the areas possibly impacted.

great post Generator....

[Stormcenter]

I want to show you something. For all you model lovers out there (you know who you are!) Look at the track below. This is less than 4 days from landfall of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. This is about where we are now with the Gustav, a little less than 4 days from landfall on the northern Gulf Coast.





First of all, the NHC did very well with Katrina. In fact, they did better with Katrina than just about any storm in recent memory. But unfortunately, they were still off by about 150 miles when you look at this graphic (3-days-in-advance). Where did it hit? Buras, LA, about 150 miles to the WEST. You'll also notice that the NHC ended up using nearly *all* of their cone of uncertainty.

During the setup for Katrina, the synoptics were relatively well defined, with Katrina moving along the periphery of a ridge parked over North Florida, etc. Now consider Gustav's current setup. Much more complicated, with several interacting ridges and a possible trough in the middle. Much more difficult to accurately forecast.

What I am saying here is that at 3-4 days out, the landfall point can still be off by quite a bit. In this case, it makes all the difference in the world given the areas possibly impacted.

We are actually less then 3 days from landfall per the last NHC advisory. It shows Gustav making landfall around 8:00pm Monday evening. But I do see where you are coming from.

[Weatherfreak000]

I want to show you something. For all you model lovers out there (you know who you are!) Look at the track below. This is less than 4 days from landfall of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. This is about where we are now with the Gustav, a little less than 4 days from landfall on the northern Gulf Coast.





First of all, the NHC did very well with Katrina. In fact, they did better with Katrina than just about any storm in recent memory. But unfortunately, they were still off by about 150 miles when you look at this graphic (3-days-in-advance). Where did it hit? Buras, LA, about 150 miles to the WEST. You'll also notice that the NHC ended up using nearly *all* of their cone of uncertainty.

During the setup for Katrina, the synoptics were relatively well defined, with Katrina moving along the periphery of a ridge parked over North Florida, etc. Now consider Gustav's current setup. Much more complicated, with several interacting ridges and a possible trough in the middle. Much more difficult to accurately forecast.

What I am saying here is that at 3-4 days out, the landfall point can still be off by quite a bit. In this case, it makes all the difference in the world given the areas possibly impacted.

I think you definitely need to factor in that happened three years ago. Meteorology and Models themselves have improved since then. And will continue to do so as time goes along.

I know that takes the thrill and guessing game out of forecasting... but im confident we are not too far away from solutions like Katrina and Rita being less likely.

[ROCK]

I want to show you something. For all you model lovers out there (you know who you are!) Look at the track below. This is less than 4 days from landfall of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. This is about where we are now with the Gustav, a little less than 4 days from landfall on the northern Gulf Coast.





First of all, the NHC did very well with Katrina. In fact, they did better with Katrina than just about any storm in recent memory. But unfortunately, they were still off by about 150 miles when you look at this graphic (3-days-in-advance). Where did it hit? Buras, LA, about 150 miles to the WEST. You'll also notice that the NHC ended up using nearly *all* of their cone of uncertainty.

During the setup for Katrina, the synoptics were relatively well defined, with Katrina moving along the periphery of a ridge parked over North Florida, etc. Now consider Gustav's current setup. Much more complicated, with several interacting ridges and a possible trough in the middle. Much more difficult to accurately forecast.

What I am saying here is that at 3-4 days out, the landfall point can still be off by quite a bit. In this case, it makes all the difference in the world given the areas possibly impacted.

I think you definitely need to factor in that happened three years ago. Meteorology and Models themselves have improved since then. And will continue to do so as time goes along.

I know that takes the thrill and guessing game out of forecasting... but im confident we are not too far away from solutions like Katrina and Rita being less likely.

not sure how they have improved if the NHC still relys on the cone for forecasting errors...

[GeneratorPower]

The cone size should still give the same info. The size of the cone (in any given year, I assume) is supposed to contain the actual track of the cyclone 60-70% of the time. Now the size of the cone may decrease as we move from year to year, but the cone still exists for a reason.

And you have to realize that the system core will stay within the cone only 60-70% of the time, and generally speaking it might use *all* of the cone pretty often. This is just going off what the NHC has in the definition documents on their website.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Last two GFDL runs. I included the 18Z for comparison. Looks pretty much the same.

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV 07L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 29
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 18.8 79.2 300./ 8.9
6 19.2 80.1 293./ 9.2
12 19.9 80.9 313./10.1
18 20.9 82.0 311./14.5
24 21.8 83.0 312./12.6
30 22.5 83.8 312./10.0
36 23.5 84.7 319./13.4
42 24.5 85.7 316./13.2
48 25.4 86.5 317./11.9
54 26.5 87.5 316./14.1
60 27.4 88.7 308./13.6
66 28.5 89.7 317./14.1
72 29.6 90.9 313./15.2
78 30.5 91.9 314./12.8
84 31.4 92.8 314./11.5
90 32.3 93.5 323./10.5
96 33.0 94.0 326./ 8.8
102 33.5 94.1 347./ 4.7
108 33.8 94.1 353./ 3.5
114 34.2 94.2 344./ 3.2
120 34.0 94.2 180./ 1.0
126 33.8 93.7 116./ 5.1

================================================================================================


NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE GUSTAV 07L
INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 30
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 19.2 80.0 300./ 8.0
6 19.5 81.0 288./10.2
12 20.4 81.8 318./11.7
18 21.4 82.9 312./13.2
24 22.1 83.6 315./10.6
30 23.1 84.6 315./12.6
36 24.1 85.4 322./12.8
42 25.1 86.2 319./12.4
48 26.2 87.2 319./13.6
54 27.0 88.4 305./14.0
60 28.0 89.3 315./12.5
66 29.0 90.2 320./12.7
72 30.0 91.1 317./13.2
78 30.7 91.9 312./10.0
84 31.5 92.6 320./10.0
90 32.3 93.3 319./ 9.3
96 32.7 93.9 305./ 6.4
102 32.6 94.3 255./ 3.6
108 32.7 94.5 292./ 1.9
114 32.3 95.1 241./ 6.2
120 31.7 95.2 187./ 6.1
126 31.4 95.4 216./ 4.4

[clfenwi]

I want to show you something. For all you model lovers out there (you know who you are!) Look at the track below. This is less than 4 days from landfall of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. This is about where we are now with the Gustav, a little less than 4 days from landfall on the northern Gulf Coast.

(snip)

Since we're talking models, it's worth noting that the model agreement at this time is a fair bit better than what existed at the point you noted with Katrina, compare with http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/archive/aal07_2008083000_track_early.png with http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/archive/2005/early_AAL12_05082612.png

[Jason_B]

Breathing a big sigh of relief here in the Florida panhandle tonight, but I worry what could happen between NO and Houston next week...it has a long track over warm Gulf waters and if conditions aloft are favorable nothing is going to stop Gustav from bombing into a monster.

[Weatherfreak000]

So GFDL shows NOLA I assume. Appreciate the run.

[Stormcenter]

I want to show you something. For all you model lovers out there (you know who you are!) Look at the track below. This is less than 4 days from landfall of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. This is about where we are now with the Gustav, a little less than 4 days from landfall on the northern Gulf Coast.

(snip)

Since we're talking models, it's worth noting that the model agreement at this time is a fair bit better than what existed at the point you noted with Katrina, compare with http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/archive/aal07_2008083000_track_early.png with http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/archive/2005/early_AAL12_05082612.png

Wow those models are really clustered together.

[Stormcenter]

So GFDL shows NOLA I assume. Appreciate the run.

Huh does it?

[superfly]

Since we're talking models, it's worth noting that the model agreement at this time is a fair bit better than what existed at the point you noted with Katrina, compare with http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/archive/aal07_2008083000_track_early.png with http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/archive/2005/early_AAL12_05082612.png

Speaking of that graphic, what happened to the CONU concensus anyway? Did they discard it or just rename it?