Gustav Recon Discussion

[WindRunner]

URNT12 KNHC 300630
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 30/06:01:30Z
B. 19 deg 43 min N
080 deg 47 min W
C. 700 mb 2831 m
D. 75 kt
E. 041 deg 24 nm
F. 147 deg 100 kt
G. 042 deg 028 nm
H. 969 mb
I. 8 C/ 3033 m
J. 15 C/ 3050 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 1307A GUSTAV OB 09
MAX FL WIND 100 KT NE QUAD 05:53:20 Z

Latest VDM shows a 969mb pressure, obviously from a dropsonde that hasn't come in yet...personally, I wouldn't be surprised if there was about 12kts or so of wind on it, making the pressure really a bit lower.

[physicx07]

At 3:43 a.m., pressure extrapolated down to 963.5. That's a drop of about 3.5 mb from the extrapolated pressure an hour and a half ago. Looks like rapidly intensifying now, especially when you look over the last 6 hours.

[shah8]

why is 954 or 953mb considered to low in the latest gathering?

[RL3AO]

why is 954 or 953mb considered to low in the latest gathering?

Dropsonde showed 959mb. A direct measurement will always be taken over an estimate which those were.

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 301121
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 30/10:59:50Z
B. 20 deg 31 min N
081 deg 28 min W
C. NA mb 2731 m
D. 94 kt
E. 297 deg 13 nm
F. 038 deg 096 kt
G. 302 deg 018 nm
H. 956 mb
I. 8 C/ 3052 m
J. 16 C/ 3047 m
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C20
N. 12345/
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF302 1307A GUSTAV OB 25
MAX OUTBAND AND FL WIND 114 KT SE QUAD 11:05:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C, 294 / 11NM

[WmE]

Pressure down to 949mb extrapolated.

[93superstorm]

So did another plane leave right now?

[Dave]

AF308 is on their way out now.

[cycloneye]

Here is the new plan of the day for Gustav.

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 301515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SAT 30 AUGUST 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 31/1100Z AUGUST TO 01/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
         TCPOD NUMBER.....08-091

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE GUSTAV
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 73 IS A BOUY DROP MISSION TAKING OFF
       31/1100Z SFC TO 10,000 FT.

       FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
       A. 31/1800,2100,01/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 2207A GUSTAVV
       C. 31/1530Z
       D. 25.1N 86.2W
       E. 31/1700 TO 01/0000Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 49 IS A G-IV FLIGHT DEPARTING AT
       31/1730Z.. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

       FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 42. IS A RESEARCH MISSION DEPARTING
       31/2000Z 10,OOO TO 14,000 FT

       FLIGHT FIVE -- TEAL 71
       A. 01/0300,0600,0900Z
       B. AFXXX 2507A GUSTAV
       C. 01/0030Z
       D. 26.4N 87.9W
       E. 01/0200Z TO 01/0900Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT SIX -- 49 IS A G-IV MISSION DEPARTING AT 01/0530Z
       41,000 TO 45,000 FT

       FLIGHT SEVEN -- NOAA 43 IS A RESEARCH MISSION DEPARTING
       01/0800Z....10,OOO TO 14,000 FT

       FLIGHT EIGHT  -- TEAL 72
       A. 01/1200,1500,1800Z
       B. AFXXX 2807A GUSTAV
       C. 01/0915Z
       D. 27.8N 89.2W
       E. 01/1100Z TO 01/1800Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES.
       A WP-3 FLIGHT EVERY 12 HRS.

[CrazyC83]

I think Recon will find a strong Cat 4 with surface winds around 125-130 kt and a pressure in the 935-940 range.

[gotoman38]

Strong storm coming onto Isle of Youth

[physicx07]

I think Recon will find a strong Cat 4 with surface winds around 125-130 kt and a pressure in the 935-940 range.

We'll find out soon, one or two more sequences. Consistent 100+ SFMR with a peak SFMR of 127 on the very last one you posted!

[Solaris]

141 kts 944 mb

[WindRunner]

141kt FL? pressure XTRP to 943...

[CrazyC83]

141 kt supports 127 kt at the surface, but the SFMR supports lower (the presence of islands may create issues with such though). I'd say 120 kt as a blend of the data.

[physicx07]

141 kt supports 127 kt at the surface, but the SFMR supports lower (the presence of islands may create issues with such though). I'd say 120 kt as a blend of the data.

Ah yeah, I was a column off. Thought the 141 was SFMR.

[HURAKAN]

URNT15 KNHC 301649
AF308 1507A GUSTAV HDOB 10 20080830
163900 2200N 08139W 6962 03059 9954 +082 -085 136078 080 053 007 00
163930 2159N 08141W 6967 03055 9950 +083 -085 136077 080 055 011 00
164000 2158N 08142W 6969 03043 9936 +086 -085 134074 077 056 008 00
164030 2156N 08143W 6965 03044 9944 +077 -085 134079 080 057 007 00
164100 2155N 08144W 6967 03036 9941 +076 -085 134082 083 056 009 00
164130 2154N 08146W 6965 03031 9946 +065 -085 131083 084 059 013 00
164200 2153N 08147W 6966 03022 9941 +063 -085 135084 087 059 022 00
164230 2152N 08148W 6979 03009 9924 +075 -085 142079 081 064 013 00
164300 2151N 08149W 6952 03033 9911 +078 -085 140081 085 062 011 00
164330 2149N 08151W 6977 02999 9903 +082 -085 138084 087 060 015 00
164400 2148N 08152W 6965 03007 9881 +091 -085 136087 087 063 005 00
164430 2147N 08153W 6969 02996 9883 +086 -085 140087 088 065 005 00
164500 2146N 08154W 6963 02991 9866 +089 -085 142088 090 064 005 00
164530 2145N 08155W 6967 02977 9848 +097 -085 143092 094 064 005 00
164600 2144N 08157W 6967 02964 9828 +102 -085 145098 101 065 006 03
164630 2143N 08158W 6967 02954 9818 +099 -085 144103 104 067 002 00
164700 2142N 08200W 6969 02936 9795 +105 -085 144104 105 072 002 00
164730 2141N 08201W 6965 02919 9779 +097 -085 143106 108 076 004 00
164800 2141N 08203W 6971 02896 9754 +102 -085 142115 117 082 007 00
164830 2140N 08204W 6964 02876 9736 +091 -085 141123 127 086 017 00
$$

127 kt FL so far - supports a Cat 4.

No... the SFMR continues to indicate lower winds. The 90% rule is not absolute. The range of 60-120%. lets wait until we get some dropsondes or SFMR that support cat 4

I'm going to argue with you on the SFMR support...SFMR has been piss-poor this year, and most of the specialists seem to realize this. In weak to moderate TS's, the SFMR almost always reads values close to the FL winds, i.e. probably a bit of an overestimate if nothing else. In these stronger storms, at least this year, it's always read low. I would hope that Rick sticks to the FL wind values here and converts this down to 127kts surface (125kts for the advisory/update). Anything less wouldn't be accurate, IMO, especially since this is the NE quad.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure confirmed at 945mb.

[CrazyC83]

New eyewall drop suggests a 934mb pressure...we'll see if it is accurate.

[WindRunner]

Dropsonde in the supposed "eyewall" seems to have gotten spun around a bit...surface reported 935mb/16kts, and looking at the wind profile it probably got spun out of the eyewall somewhere between 700 and 850mb...