ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Steve]

>>30.2N 92.7W is landfall.

That's kinda inland. What heading do you extrapolate that from the prior point? Must come in from Marsh Island/Atachafalaya Bay to get to that point. Puts towns like Eunice, Crowley, Gueydan, Rayne, Church Point, et al on the western edge of Acadiana in the bad zone. My brother wanted me to go stay with him in Eunice. He's got a solid brick house, and I'd do it if it were just me, but not with the kids.

[vaffie]

6Z HWRF out now--landfall further west than previous run--makes landfall on the Louisiana side of the border, hugs the coast of Louisiana, then Texas, then travels southwest almost parallel to the Texas coast (while strengthening again slightly).

http://tc.met.psu.edu/

[deltadog03]

Looks like all of the 6z model spreads might bust in the short term...Might*

[Derek Ortt]

the models are well to the left. They have this crossing over or even wet of the Isle of Youth

it looks to cross closer to the center of Havana (terrible news!)

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Derek, when are you going to put out a forecast for Gustav?

[Stratosphere747]

Looks right inline...

[Derek Ortt]

Derek, when are you going to put out a forecast for Gustav?

working on it... should be ready in 30-45 minutes

[Nimbus]

I think they call that a trichoidal wobble.

Just because the models make a straight shot and park Gus on the ridge doesn't mean we won't see Some track variance. WXman57 explained this earlier but with all the traffic on storm2k..

[HouTXmetro]

Per the latest models, Consensus is bulding that a Turn To the SW will occur near or after lanfall..... Texas residents need to take Gustav seriuosly because if this happens sooner We have a problem. Right now the track goes where my relatives lives in South Central Louisiana and it looks like they will have to go North since Points East and Wes (MS/TX) are not far from out of the woods.

[dwg71]

metro, i think its a timing issue, those that are bending back southwest are the slower models. If it continues at a quicker pace, you will see the bend get less and less. the faster models that have it onland in the next 72 hours tend to discount a turn back sw.

just my eyes looking at it.

[Nimbus]

The last time Derek mentioned a storm near Cuba was leaning right Charley completely blew the official forecast. I don't think the folks that live near the Mississippi delta are out of the woods yet.
Lets wait for the Gulfstream flight.

[HouTXmetro]

metro, i think its a timing issue, those that are bending back southwest are the slower models. If it continues at a quicker pace, you will see the bend get less and less. the faster models that have it onland in the next 72 hours tend to discount a turn back sw.

just my eyes looking at it.

Check the latest models. A MAJORITY are predicting a SW turn. It's a matter of where the turn occurs. Right now the consensus is that Gus will be inland when that happens but the possibility remains it could happen before landfall as the HWRF/UKMET show.

But you are right, Timing is key.

[gulfcoastdave]

What has happened with the gulfstream flight.? I heard that all the information from last night could be used due to issues. Has anyone heard anything..?

[dwg71]

metro, i think its a timing issue, those that are bending back southwest are the slower models. If it continues at a quicker pace, you will see the bend get less and less. the faster models that have it onland in the next 72 hours tend to discount a turn back sw.

just my eyes looking at it.

Check the latest models. A MAJORITY are predicting a SW turn. It's a matter of where the turn occurs. Right now the consensus is that Gus will be inland when that happens but the possibility remains it could happen before landfall as the HWRF/UKMET show.

But you are right, Timing is key.

you are right about the sw turn, but if it happens inland 200 miles its not as much a concern. I do think it will be inland in less than 72 hours in Central LA. imo

[Jason_B]

Things are looking much better for New Orleans!

[Sabanic]

Things are looking much better for New Orleans!

Wasn't going to say anything at the risk of being scolded, but that is an extremely irresponsible post.

[cheezyWXguy]

Things are looking much better for New Orleans!

Wasn't going to say anything at the risk of being scolded, but that is an extremely irresponsible post.

Yep things actually are not all that much better for NOLA. Its going east of the track that brings it into CLA...not bueno

[Jason_B]

Things are looking much better for New Orleans!

Wasn't going to say anything at the risk of being scolded, but that is an extremely irresponsible post.

Well things could change but you have to admit a SW LA/SE TX landfall is a lot better scenario than what we were thinking earlier, and the models continue to trend further west.

[cheezyWXguy]

Things are looking much better for New Orleans!

Wasn't going to say anything at the risk of being scolded, but that is an extremely irresponsible post.

Well things could change but you have to admit a SW LA/SE TX landfall is a lot better scenario than what we were thinking earlier, and the models continue to trend further west.

Despite an actual track further east of the modles...

[HouTXmetro]

Despite an actual track further east of the modles...

If anyone is using this forum and not the NHC and local Government to prepare for Gustav that what's irresponsible. Gustav is moving with most of the models right now.