ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[cpdaman]

It is interesting how every model except the GFS (Which typically shows less of a system on its maps) has this as a strong hurricane. Can't argue against the NHC's thinking but it is hard to ignore the model intensities.

At the same time it's hard to forecast a very sheared system into a major. She just spat out her LLC, which is moving SSW, and things aren't looking so great for Hanna right now.

Wonderful news!!!!!!!!!!!

not so much check the good ir2, http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

hanna spat out sw, then SE and now has about stalled over a bouy near 21/60 west and her LLC is still plenty vigorous, convection is creeping closer......so better than a couple hours ago bouy pressure 29.62

[Bocadude85]

If you zoom in on the 00z gfs the center appears to landfall on the florida coast then rides up the coast and makes another landfall in south carolina

[jaxfladude]

Hugo like track (from the Bahamas northwards) but much closer to the Fla east coast...same intensity at S.C. landfall as Hugo?
Scary thought all around...

[CrazyC83]

Hugo like track (from the Bahamas northwards) but much closer to the Fla east coast...same intensity at S.C. landfall as Hugo?
Scary thought all around...

Pretty hard when it is starting as a tropical storm (or weak Cat 1 at the most) with somewhat hostile conditions...Hugo was a Cat 3 at that point.

[Nimbus]

The ULL that has been shearing Hanna is still there but does look like it is starting to fill in this morning. Hanna looks like she will get a chance to intensify as the ULL fills and the shear drops.

She has not gained much latitude since the LLC is not steered by upper level winds. If she really does stay weak and track into Cuba that would not be too bad. NHC is not sure of much SW progress later in the forecast though. An intensifying Hanna might move due west like Andrew did rather than SW like Betsy.

Anyone got upper air analysis for Andrew and Betsy 72 hours out?

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 301238
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1238 UTC SAT AUG 30 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE HANNA (AL082008) 20080830 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080830 1200 080831 0000 080831 1200 080901 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.8N 66.1W 22.8N 68.3W 23.6N 70.3W 24.5N 72.0W
BAMD 21.8N 66.1W 22.5N 67.8W 23.0N 69.4W 23.3N 70.7W
BAMM 21.8N 66.1W 22.5N 68.1W 23.2N 69.9W 23.8N 71.3W
LBAR 21.8N 66.1W 22.5N 67.9W 23.1N 69.9W 23.2N 71.8W
SHIP 45KTS 48KTS 53KTS 58KTS
DSHP 45KTS 48KTS 53KTS 58KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080901 1200 080902 1200 080903 1200 080904 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.1N 73.4W 25.5N 76.3W 24.1N 79.4W 21.7N 80.0W
BAMD 23.3N 71.6W 22.8N 72.9W 23.5N 73.5W 26.5N 76.3W
BAMM 24.2N 72.4W 24.3N 74.3W 24.0N 76.0W 24.7N 77.4W
LBAR 23.1N 73.8W 21.8N 77.7W 20.1N 80.4W 19.2N 81.9W
SHIP 62KTS 67KTS 77KTS 83KTS
DSHP 62KTS 67KTS 77KTS 83KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.8N LONCUR = 66.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 21.8N LONM12 = 64.7W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 21.0N LONM24 = 62.4W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 190NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 50NM

[Bocadude85]

00z Euro slams S Fl again and the 06z GFS has Hanna move up the whole east coast of Florida just offshore and has landfall in Jacksonville... which is a left shift for GFS which showed landfall in South Carolina last night.

[gatorcane]

Yeah and the NHC is south of the guidane again. I can't see how they won't nudge the track a bit to the north and then start to show a W or WNW bend for day 5.

It's becoming clearer Hanna may not end up pushing well SW of Cuba.

[jaxtider]

I saw a few posts indicating GFS was showing a Jacksonville FL landfall, could someone give me the link of this model run loop? Thanks.

[Bocadude85]

06z GFDL has Hanna as a cat 3 do a cyclonic loop in the central Bahamas then begins to move her off to the the wnw or nw
06z HWRF very similar to GFDL accept a little closer to the Fl coast at the end of the run.

[Chigger_Lopez]

Yeah and the NHC is south of the guidane again. I can't see how they won't nudge the track a bit to the north and then start to show a W or WNW bend for day 5.

It's becoming clearer Hanna may not end up pushing well SW of Cuba.

On TWC late last night they were showing the steering forces for Gustave and showed the Massive High on the east coast of Florida with the bottom of it stretching all the way South to Cuba. If the placement of the ridge really extends that far South then Hannah would have to follow. Now perhaps that is not going to be where the ridge sets up shop as some of the models are seeing it differently, but it appears many of them still have it going to Cuba and possilby for very good reason.

[gatorcane]

only the UKM and BAMS have landfall in Cuba now, the rest don't.

[Nimbus]

The way those models are knit I wouldn't even try to outguess them.

[Bocadude85]

The way those models are knit I wouldn't even try to outguess them.

Yea I would say they are slowly clustering to just offshore S Fl on day 6... and if you were to split the difference between the EURO and GFS then you would get landfall in Florida on day 6

[Trader Ron]

EURO is scary indeed. Let's hope they are wrong.

[jlauderdal]

EURO is scary indeed. Let's hope they are wrong.

did you run the loop on the euro, did you see what is coming after hanna...

[El Nino]

EURO is scary indeed. Let's hope they are wrong.

This last storm at T+240 is 97L or is this something else ?

[cycloneye]

EURO is scary indeed. Let's hope they are wrong.

This last storm at T+240 is 97L or is this something else ?

97L

[Patrick99]

The model plot for this one really is kind of ridiculous and laughable. It looks like a bowl of noodles.

[BigA]

I always have trouble finding the Euro. Is there a good link to it?