ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[meteorologyman]

From the image above the very far outflow of Gustav is moving northeast over bahamas, but those bands there are moving southeast, I "think" (oppinion here) that area may help Hanna strengthen

[storms in NC]

You can see Hanna going Northwest of the ULL. So if the Ull keeps moving WSW and Hanna can go around it. That is why I didn't buy into the south movement of Hanna. And as far as to who will get Hanna I don't know to many things that could be in play. Till I see what is really going to be the playing roll it is up in the air. But right now I would say Fl but everyone from Fl to Va needs to watch her.

[Canelaw99]

Those who dont know this,those words above were written in the Melbourne NWS office by one of our pro mets,AJC (Tony Cristaldi).

That's very cool! Didn't know that....

[Grease Monkey]

Hanna is starting to look beautiful.........In a bad way

It looks like she is done playing with the ULL and beating it into a pulp, infact it looks like the ULL is becoming part of Hanna.

Yeah, I think Hanna is starting to win this battle.

That's how I like my women.

[Canelaw99]

Have you seen the Euro run? This would be like a one - two punch to South Florida (like Frances & Jeanne).
I guess the second storm is 97L? Thoughts & comments welcomed.


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005070800!!!step/

And another run where the Euro does in S FL....how many runs in a row has it been doing this now?? Talk about consistency.

[meteorologyman]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

That's scary....storms close together are suppose to weaken 1 or the other, but it's doing the stinking opposite and that's why models are forecasting such intensification, what good are these shears if its going the same directon as the storm is rotating it.

that little drawing presentation I brought up few pages ago.

[cpdaman]

i have no idea what is going on, ULL could be strong now that i look at it, and LLC could be on the verge, or vice versa any pro's watching this now?

i don't see the NW movement from hanna storms in nc, i see a nw movement by the ULL and the mass of convection getting some high power SW shear, this LLC must be taking a beat down.

storms don't beat up ULL's, it's the other way around

[meteorologyman]

Hanna is starting to look beautiful.........In a bad way

It looks like she is done playing with the ULL and beating it into a pulp, infact it looks like the ULL is becoming part of Hanna.

Yeah, I think Hanna is starting to win this battle.

That's how I like my women.

well since she's your women you can have her.

[AJC3]

Hanna is starting to look beautiful.........In a bad way

It looks like she is done playing with the ULL and beating it into a pulp, infact it looks like the ULL is becoming part of Hanna.

i was wondering that and what blown away said, very interesting system

are hanna and the ULL getting stacked

i'm not convinced of that by any means, perhaps the ULL is just dropping SE even closer to hanna and that "nw convection someone mentioned" is just the easterly flow dropping south on the top of the ULL as it drops south.

Yikes! No, no no! That doesn't happen! Remember, a tropical cyclone need to have an upper level anticyclone (high) over the top of it! What will happen here is that either the ULL will continue to shear the TC, with the convection and upper high remaining displaced downshear of the center, or the ULL will wind up getting deformed or shunted away by the high and the TC strengthens. Up until now, the former has been happening.

[Chacor]

Pretty impressive convective blowup.



Still not really close to the centre though.

[Bocadude85]

Hanna is starting to look beautiful.........In a bad way

It looks like she is done playing with the ULL and beating it into a pulp, infact it looks like the ULL is becoming part of Hanna.

i was wondering that and what blown away said, very interesting system

are hanna and the ULL getting stacked

i'm not convinced of that by any means, perhaps the ULL is just dropping SE even closer to hanna and that "nw convection someone mentioned" is just the easterly flow dropping south on the top of the ULL as it drops south.

Yikes! No, no no! That doesn't happen! Remember, a tropical cyclone need to have an upper level anticyclone (high) over the top of it! What will happen here is that either the ULL will continue to shear the TC, with the convection and upper high remaining displaced downshear of the center, or the ULL will wind up getting deformed or shunted away by the high and the TC strengthens. Up until now, the former has been happening.

what do you mean by up until now?

[cpdaman]

Hanna is starting to look beautiful.........In a bad way

It looks like she is done playing with the ULL and beating it into a pulp, infact it looks like the ULL is becoming part of Hanna.

i was wondering that and what blown away said, very interesting system

are hanna and the ULL getting stacked

i'm not convinced of that by any means, perhaps the ULL is just dropping SE even closer to hanna and that "nw convection someone mentioned" is just the easterly flow dropping south on the top of the ULL as it drops south.

Yikes! No, no no! That doesn't happen! Remember, a tropical cyclone need to have an upper level anticyclone (high) over the top of it! What will happen here is that either the ULL will continue to shear the TC, with the convection and upper high remaining displaced downshear of the center, or the ULL will wind up getting deformed or shunted away by the high and the TC strengthens. Up until now, the former has been happening.

what do you mean by up until now?[/quote]

i interpret that as SO FAR

the LLC is taking a beat down, that's what ull do to LLC's not the other way around

he said to watch for the upper high over the eastern portion of hanna to shunt away the ULL otherwise, no thing good for hanna , intensification wise

[AJC3]

what do you mean by up until now?

I mean, that's what's been happening. I'm not implying that things are turning around...they might...they might not. What's left of the LLC is looking worse by the hour - it's appears to be starting to open up. I suspect the TC discussion will make note of the really ragged appearance.

[cycloneye]

No longer NHC track goes more south towards the Caribbean.

[Bocadude85]

no sw turn in the NHC track just west with talk of a wnw motion after day 5

[gatorcane]

for Southern FL the two things I am going to look for and hope for are:

1) Too much shear to keep the cyclone from becoming a major hurricane
2) Maybe even a deflection North away from South Florida at the last minute.

[storms in NC]

If you look at this loop you can see the ULL moving to the south. Almost looks like the SE but any hows Hanna is moving to the NW it is just going to take it some time to get away from it. And Hanna is moving at a good clip there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[AJC3]

Submitted for your perusal....a side by side comparison...two visible images. The one on the left is from 16Z FRI. The one on the right...about a half hour ago. Look how much more ill-defined the center has become in 24 hours.

[BigA]

The NHC Hanna discussion mentions that the ULL is starting to weaken. How does one tell if an ULL is weakening? Could someone learned in this help me? Thank you.

[cpdaman]

If you look at this loop you can see the ULL moving to the south. Almost looks like the SE but any hows Hanna is moving to the NW it is just going to take it some time to get away from it. And Hanna is moving at a good clip there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

where do you get hanna movement to the NW at a good clip from

can you see her LLC or do you just go by the mass of clouds?

the LLC is stretched now also by hurrakan's loop