ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[soonertwister]

Looks like Havana is going to be in for some rather hellish weather in a few hours.

[O Town]

:uarrow: but still falling in line. Look at the end of the loop it pushes over west. The jog was temporary as stated many times on the board this morning. The NHC expects the storm to resume a NW path.

Haven't had time to read over all the posts this morning. Just stating my observations.

Nice visible loop

[WhirlWind]

I have a question, with the cone looking so far away from Fl. why have they issuded warnings and watches for the Keys? Just asking and cotinuing to learn...Thanks
WhirlWind

[Harry Cane]

Wow just taking my real first look at Gustav this AM.
While he does look good as expected, he sure seems to be alot further east than anticipated. By this it looks like he is to the furthest N or E of the cone of error.

Thanks O town great information

[HURAKAN]

I have a question, with the cone looking so far away from Fl. why have they issuded warnings and watches for the Keys? Just asking and cotinuing to learn...Thanks
WhirlWind

TS winds will extend to the lower keys as Gustav passes over Cuba.

[Texashawk]

You guys do realize, due to the somewhat oblique angle of the track vis a vis the coastline it would only take a 2 degree shift in track to affect Texas and a 3.5 degree shift to affect Houston (assuming a straight-line shift) It's way too early to drop your guard if you live in Texas and I hope people are still paying attention!

[tolakram]

1500z

[Sabanic]

You guys do realize, due to the angle of the track vis a vis the coastline it would only take a 2 degree shift in track to affect Texas and a 3.5 degree shift to affect Houston (assuming a straight-line shift) It's way too early to drop your guard if you live in Texas and I hope people are still paying attention!

Exactly TexasHawk, and the same goes for the other side MGC/SWAL particularly being on the Eastern side. Storm surge, and the strongest winds. Mobile is 100 miles from NOLA as the crow flies

[O Town]

Let the wobble wars begin!!!!!!!!!

[Texashawk]

You guys do realize, due to the angle of the track vis a vis the coastline it would only take a 2 degree shift in track to affect Texas and a 3.5 degree shift to affect Houston (assuming a straight-line shift) It's way too early to drop your guard if you live in Texas and I hope people are still paying attention!

Exactly TexasHawk, and the same goes for the other side MGC/SWAL particularly being on the Eastern side. Storm surge, and the strongest winds. Mobile is 100 miles from NOLA as the crow flies

Very true, Sabanic. I think, for the first time in my life, I hate that skinny black line!

[deltadog03]

Looks like Gus is trying to run for that weakness

[GeneratorPower]

Looks like Gus is trying to run for that weakness

Please elaborate.

[Sanibel]

A look at "O-Towns" loop on the last page shows classic trochoidal wobbles. The sign of a strengthening storm.

[x-y-no]

I have a question, with the cone looking so far away from Fl. why have they issuded warnings and watches for the Keys? Just asking and cotinuing to learn...Thanks
WhirlWind

Gustav has a large and still expanding wind field. Even if he goes exactly down the track, one can expect some TS gusts in Key West. Any track on the right side of the cone will bring sustained TS winds to the lower keys.

[cpdaman]

I have a question, with the cone looking so far away from Fl. why have they issuded warnings and watches for the Keys? Just asking and cotinuing to learn...Thanks
WhirlWind

Gustav has a large and still expanding wind field. Even if he goes exactly down the track, one can expect some TS gusts in Key West. Any track on the right side of the cone will bring sustained TS winds to the lower keys.

i wonder if any flooding would occur in key west near time of high tide

[HURAKAN]

[Just Joshing You]

Is it just my thinking that on the current track, the worst storm surge would get pushed into New Orleans and surrounding areas on this angle? NE quadrant will be the first to hit New Orleans, right?

I'm not predicting anything, just asking a question.

[deltadog03]

OLook back a couple of pages at the steering flow.

[Just Joshing You]

I have a question, with the cone looking so far away from Fl. why have they issuded warnings and watches for the Keys? Just asking and cotinuing to learn...Thanks
WhirlWind

Gustav has a large and still expanding wind field. Even if he goes exactly down the track, one can expect some TS gusts in Key West. Any track on the right side of the cone will bring sustained TS winds to the lower keys.

i wonder if any flooding would occur in key west near time of high tide

Probably won't have much time to build up a surge before passing them the keys.

[Agua]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

I wish they'd recenter that storm relative floater. I e-mailed the site administrator earlier this morning but, so far, no dice.