ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[storms in NC]

for Southern FL the two things I am going to look for and hope for are:

1) Too much shear to keep the cyclone from becoming a major hurricane
2) Maybe even a deflection North away from South Florida at the last minute.

No thank you Gatorcane. Only if it stays as a TS for the rain. But you cuould be right. They are talking about it in Wilm NWC forcast this morning that we may need to keep a eye out for her. But for sure Fl don't need any more rain either after Fay. We got here 3/10th of a in from her other places got like 4-8 ins. Good for some parts of NC. But we still have a ways to go for rain fall.
So maybe #1 will do

[HURAKAN]

Link: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 170257.GIF

If you increase the animation speed, the LLC is very easy to see.

[storms in NC]

If you look at this loop you can see the ULL moving to the south. Almost looks like the SE but any hows Hanna is moving to the NW it is just going to take it some time to get away from it. And Hanna is moving at a good clip there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

where do you get hanna movement to the NW at a good clip from

can you see her LLC or do you just go by the mass of clouds?

the LLC is an absoute mess now

Oh look at the clouds it's like a big bird.

[tolakram]

[Blown Away]

Accuweather holding firm with Cat 2.

[SouthFLTropics]

Accuweather holding firm with Cat 2.

Gotta keep the viewers attention in South Florida...It's all about advertising you know!!! LOL

SFT

[cpdaman]

No longer NHC track goes more south towards the Caribbean.

no longer calling for cat 1, is this a recent change

[jlauderdal]

Accuweather holding firm with Cat 2.

Gotta keep the viewers attention in South Florida...It's all about advertising you know!!! LOL

SFT

it looks pretty similiar to nhc track actually, nothing unreasonable about that

[cpdaman]

jlauderdal he may have been talking about the cat 2 they are calling for instead of the TS the nhc is. (perhaps has something to do with JB going on fox and calling for hanna to be a major LOL)

i do however think this could get interesting shoud this LLC get on the NE side of the ULL

and i think intensity estimates are up in the air

[Blown Away]

No longer NHC track goes more south towards the Caribbean.

no longer calling for cat 1, is this a recent change

No big change the 36 & 48 hour intensity went down from 65kt to 60kt.

[jinftl]

Yesterday there was talk that Hanna would never make it north of 25N....now there is talk of even the Carolinas having to keep an eye out....bottom line...a storm in the location hanna is requires everyone in the southeast to pay attention....with an obvious emphasis on florida due to closer proximity and forecast tracks.

Strength forecasting is not an art so hanna shouldn't be dismissed yet based on forecasts keeping it as a ts. Historically, the waters hanna will traverse have strengthened storms more than they have weakened them.

[HURAKAN]

What you need to take from Hanna is that if you live to the west of the system, US east coast, Bahamas, etc, you need to keep an eye on it.

[cpdaman]

i do however think this could get interesting shoud this LLC get on the NE side of the ULL

and i think intensity estimates are up in the air

looks to me like the last flare shows hanna is indeed moving NW/NNW and is near 23.2 / 66.8

and the ULL is dropping South. uh oh......hanna mabye getting on NE side of ULL soon .

but based on there "relationship" i don't think the ULL will let her go that easily.

[cycloneye]

Tony,here is what NHC has for Hanna in terms of recon:

TROPICAL STORM HANNA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
A. 31/1600Z
B. AFXXX 0108A HANNA
C. 31/1230Z
D. 23.0N 70.0W
E. 31/1500Z TO 31/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

4. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX HANNA AT 01/1600Z

[storms in NC]

Yesterday there was talk that Hanna would never make it north of 25N....now there is talk of even the Carolinas having to keep an eye out....bottom line...a storm in the location hanna is requires everyone in the southeast to pay attention....with an obvious emphasis on florida due to closer proximity and forecast tracks.

Strength forecasting is not an art so hanna shouldn't be dismissed yet based on forecasts keeping it as a ts. Historically, the waters hanna will traverse have strengthened storms more than they have weakened them.

Before I start in No way am I saying Hanna is going to the Carolinas.
Now I said yesterday it wouldn't take that south turn for a few reasons I pointed out. But this brings Floyd to mine. Floyd was to go into Fl and was in miles of the fl coast and turned and went into NC. So I know so well. Another story but later with that one. But Floyd was a big hurricane and was a cat4 but when he got here was a cat1 I think. He was more rain than and thing. So a storm can go down in these waters by the coast.

[HURAKAN]

Hanna's exposed center.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Yesterday there was talk that Hanna would never make it north of 25N....now there is talk of even the Carolinas having to keep an eye out....bottom line...a storm in the location hanna is requires everyone in the southeast to pay attention....with an obvious emphasis on florida due to closer proximity and forecast tracks.

Strength forecasting is not an art so hanna shouldn't be dismissed yet based on forecasts keeping it as a ts. Historically, the waters hanna will traverse have strengthened storms more than they have weakened them.

Before I start in No way am I saying Hanna is going to the Carolinas.
Now I said yesterday it wouldn't take that south turn for a few reasons I pointed out. But this brings Floyd to mine. Floyd was to go into Fl and was in miles of the fl coast and turned and went into NC. So I know so well. Another story but later with that one. But Floyd was a big hurricane and was a cat4 but when he got here was a cat1 I think. He was more rain than and thing. So a storm can go down in these waters by the coast.

Hanna's nothing like floyd. Floyd was going straight towards florida but was sure to turn in response to a very deep trough forecfast to head off the US east coast. The only question with Floyd was when the right turn would occur. With Hannah there is no deep trough forecast.

[cpdaman]

good picture hurrakan i stand corrected about her being at 23.2 north,

up to date (1545 ) visible shows her at 22.2 66.8

looks like she almost got ripped open in last hour, but is popping convection on her northern side of LLC........ can the LLC hold on or will it open up more.............

[Blown Away]

Hanna's exposed center.

Yeah but looking at the loop you can see a blowup of convection on the N side of the LLC and Hanna is starting to wrap around the NW side of the circulation. We did not see that yesterday. Great shot Hurakan!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[AJC3]

i do however think this could get interesting shoud this LLC get on the NE side of the ULL

and i think intensity estimates are up in the air

looks to me like the last flare shows hanna is indeed moving NW/NNW and is near 23.2 / 66.8

and the ULL is dropping South. uh oh......hanna mabye getting on NE side of ULL soon .

but based on there "relationship" i don't think the ULL will let her go that easily.

After having had all morning to look at vis and wv imagery, I pretty much agree with you. I don't think the ULL is really moving all that much, however Hanna is, which means it will likely leave it behind...eventually. Assuming it does, it should get to a postion where the shear is less problematic, and perhaps even favorable. But first things first...let's see how Hanna fares as it moves by today/tonight - it still has a period of hostile conditions to get through first.