ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[vaffie]

I'm actually writing a novel about a monster hurricane in the north-central Gulf in mid-August on roughly the same track as Gustav, with similar steering features (a trough digging in from Colorado is actually the mechanism in my novel) and the initial track is WNW towards LA so the Houston mayor and the Harris County judge (in Texas he's not really a judge, don't ask) decide against evacuating the area, and then the Cat-5 storm makes a turn at the last minute (the trough doesn't pick up the storm as expected) and a catastrophe ensues due to the winds and the angle of approach (Galveston Bay inundates east Houston)

I look forward to reading it--but not living it...

[ROCK]

My question is :

1) why on the west side of the storm is it flatten out north/south? (pic 1)

2) Is it because it is starting to feel the trough on th GOM? (pic 2)

3) Could this be causing the more nnw tracking over the last several hous?

4) Could it be feeling the weakness over the Eastern Gulf? (pic 3)

Tampa look at the steering flow see the weakness over the FL panhandle....bet my bottom dollar it will gone in the next 3 hours.....ridge is building in....the flattening is out is due to the trof in the GOM lifting out...

Rock, what makes you so sure that the weakness over the FL panhandle will be gone in 3 hours? And the trough (just north of the Yucatan)does not appear (at least to me) to be lifting out.

Thanks & stay safe
Robert

Hey Robert, just watch the progression of the weakness from 3 hrs ago to last updated...notice the weakness filling in ever so slightly....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... lm6-1.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html


that is why I am sure.....but as always I leave an out for myself....so I could be wrong...

[Janie2006]

It appears the entire northeast side of the island (maybe even half of the whole thing) will be encountering the core of those intense winds.

[Dean4Storms]

I wonder how much it would weaken if it hits an EWRC just as it gets to mainland Cuba and those Mtns.

[HouTXmetro]

Hey guys, so do most of you think that Gustav will make landfall on the Tx/La border?

For some reason that where im still leaning towards. Sorry just thought id ask.

We just don't know right now. That area is in the cone of uncertainty so keep watching.

[njweather]

Thanks all for the updates on NOLA. Wow. We're now entering the phase of this storm where rumors and rumors of rumors get going.

Indeed. Please refrain from posting what someone told you they heard on CNN... I know you all are well-intentioned, but it really causes confusion.

[cycloneye]

I wonder how much it would weaken if it hits an EWRC just as it gets to mainland Cuba and those Mtns.

Is flatland in Western Cuba.

[cheezyWXguy]

I have 2 questions:
1. If recon in its last flight recorded winds of 132kt, wouldnt that be more supportive of 120kt than 110kt at the surface?

2. I shouldve asked this at the time this happened, but when Gustav intensified to a hurricane for the first time near haiti, its strengthening rate from td to hurricane seemed awfully close to Humberto's record...which was faster and by how much?

[Dean4Storms]

I wonder how much it would weaken if it hits an EWRC just as it gets to mainland Cuba and those Mtns.

Is flatland in Western Cuba.

My bad, I was thinking of eastern Cuba. Thanks.

[duris]

Does anyone know what the people of Pearlington, MS are doing to prepare? Thanks in advance for an answer.

I don't have much info, but my dad, who coordinated disaster relief there for the MS Baptist Co-op, has been in touch trying to get help for people to leave and was going to discuss with the state president or whatever he is. One lady had no place to go, no money for gas and ten dogs that she adopted post-K and can't bear to leave them even though she spent Katrina in a tree. Sorry, can't offer much more.

[93superstorm]

WOW, this thing has a huge windfield. Hurricane force already in cuba and quite far from center. Also latest image the eye really cleared out:

[HURAKAN]

You can see here how much flat is W.Cuba compared to E.Cuba.

[Portastorm]

Thanks all for the updates on NOLA. Wow. We're now entering the phase of this storm where rumors and rumors of rumors get going.

Indeed. Please refrain from posting what someone told you they heard on CNN... I know you all are well-intentioned, but it really causes confusion.

Easy there ... I understand how rumors start confusion. I was merely trying to confirm. And my post said nothing about CNN.

[LSU2001]

Alright guys,
Last post from Cut Off Louisiana. I am bugging out in 5 minutes. I will post when I get to BR.
Thanks for all the help and info so far.
See Ya.
Tim

[ROCK]

curious as to why Gus does have been better inflow from the SW.....land? just looking at that last view

[6SpeedTA95]

This storm is beginning to look very well organized, anyone know when we can expect more recon data?

[PTPatrick]

I AM NOT A HISTORY HUGGER, JUST FIND THIS INTERESTING....If you look at the historical tracks on Wunderground...no August cat 3,4, 5 within 400 miles of where Gus is now have ever hit Lousisana...in fact there is just one that hit near houston, and one that hit Hancock County mississippi, and that was a lady named Camile...but alas she was no lady.

[ROCK]

Alright guys,
Last post from Cut Off Louisiana. I am bugging out in 5 minutes. I will post when I get to BR.
Thanks for all the help and info so far.
See Ya.
Tim

stay safe bro.....if you have GPS that could help you get around the traffic some...

[Cookiely]

Hurakan thank you for posting the beautiful pics of Gustav and other pertinent images.

[njweather]

Thanks all for the updates on NOLA. Wow. We're now entering the phase of this storm where rumors and rumors of rumors get going.

Indeed. Please refrain from posting what someone told you they heard on CNN... I know you all are well-intentioned, but it really causes confusion.

Easy there ... I understand how rumors start confusion. I was merely trying to confirm. And my post said nothing about CNN.

I was referring to an earlier post by another user. Sorry!

Also, I know Western Cuba is flat relative to its Eastern half, but there are some "mountains" there:

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=elevation ... 24&t=p&z=9

Does anyone know if these are high enough to be disruptive?