ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[bvigal]

Cuban radar site appears to be either down, or overloaded.

Here we go

(intentionally omitted Harry Cane's link to insert LIVE LOOP into S2K thread)

I can't believe you are linking a live radar loop, and one that is overloaded, at that, so just slows down this thread rendering. I've been bumped off here twice because bandwidth is so busy. No wonder.

Be safe, Tim!

[tolakram]

I AM NOT A HISTORY HUGGER, JUST FIND THIS INTERESTING....If you look at the historical tracks on Wunderground...no August cat 3,4, 5 within 400 miles of where Gus is now have ever hit Lousisana...in fact there is just one that hit near houston, and one that hit Hancock County mississippi, and that was a lady named Camile...but alas she was no lady.

Which is why using climatology to predict storm landfall locations is useless; too few data points to make any meaningful conclusion. Of course Gustav will strike in September, not August.

[Nederlander]

Also, I know Western Cuba is flat relative to its Eastern half, but there are some "mountains" there:

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=elevation ... 24&t=p&z=9

Does anyone know if these are high enough to be disruptive?

they arent extremely high mountains, shouldnt weaken it very much

[HURAKAN]

A recent example of how the topography of Pinar del Río, Cuba, can influence a tropical cyclone intensity was Hurricane Lily that moved in a very similar path to Gustav's and its intensity remained at 90 knots during the passage.

[Yankeegirl]

ok,.... so i have a quick question... I am in Houston and it looks like Gus is going into LA then turning to the west.... what effects might we feel here? This storm looks huge! We have to have something, right?

[cpdaman]

key west long range radar looks........very stormy for the western end of the keys

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

any posters in key west? strong feeder band to the se gonna move thru in about two hours

[HURAKAN]

[meteorologyman]

ok,.... so i have a quick question... I am in Houston and it looks like Gus is going into LA then turning to the west.... what effects might we feel here? This storm looks huge! We have to have something, right?

Too dificult to say, if it misses LA and stays off land you may feel strong effects, if it moves inland then come into your area you may feel TS force conditons

[Nederlander]

ok,.... so i have a quick question... I am in Houston and it looks like Gus is going into LA then turning to the west.... what effects might we feel here? This storm looks huge! We have to have something, right?

depends on landfall and where that ridge is going to be at that time.. if its bends SW AFTER landfall, then itll be significantly weaker, but moving much slower too.. lots of rain... with Gus's large wind field, that area may experience TS winds, but if the forecast is correct then it shouldnt be anything major... too early to tell though

[Stormcenter]

I AM NOT A HISTORY HUGGER, JUST FIND THIS INTERESTING....If you look at the historical tracks on Wunderground...no August cat 3,4, 5 within 400 miles of where Gus is now have ever hit Lousisana...in fact there is just one that hit near houston, and one that hit Hancock County mississippi, and that was a lady named Camile...but alas she was no lady.

Yeah I've mentioned that before on other posts. I have my doubts Gustav will be a 3,4 or 5 when he makes
land somewhere along the Gulf coast. JMHO

[Brent]

Is that a stadium effect in the eye?

If recon doesn't find a Cat 4 I'll be shocked. Cuba is going to get slammed.

[meteorologyman]

There is no good scenario for this storm.
if hits LA as a major it will see catastrophic damage.
If it takes a westward track then the Oil Rigs will take a HEAVY BEATING

[BigB0882]

I AM NOT A HISTORY HUGGER, JUST FIND THIS INTERESTING....If you look at the historical tracks on Wunderground...no August cat 3,4, 5 within 400 miles of where Gus is now have ever hit Lousisana...in fact there is just one that hit near houston, and one that hit Hancock County mississippi, and that was a lady named Camile...but alas she was no lady.

Yeah I've mentioned that before on other posts. I have my doubts Gustav will be a 3,4 or 5 when he makes
land somewhere along the Gulf coast. JMHO

Well, this hurricane will not be hitting in August. Does that change the statistics any or are you only referring to cyclones FORMED in August?

[Janie2006]

I'd be willing to bet it's a Cat 4. That eye structure is impressive.

[Cape Verde]

The 100,000 residents of the Isle of Youth are about to have an exciting Saturday.

[Solaris]

Sherrif from Placquemines Parish/New Orleans on WDSU TV at the moment. Confirms mandatory evacuation starts at NOON local time and also CURFEW overnight, people roaming the streets for no good reason will be arrested.

[meteorologyman]

The 100,000 residents of the Isle of Youth are about to have an exciting Saturday.

I woldn't call a CAT3 or even a Cat4 slamming into your area would be considered exciting, but i know, I think you're speaking sarcasm.

[Stormcenter]

There is no good scenario for this storm.
if hits LA as a major it will see catastrophic damage.
If it takes a westward track then the Oil Rigs will take a HEAVY BEATING

Your are missing the possibility of it encountering shear in the
GOM and hopefully weakening it. That would be the BEST scenario
for everyone.

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

We have (at least) a Cat 4 now. 127 kt FL winds supports 114 kt at the surface.