ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

:eek: Poor Cuba.

Continues east of track. Way east of where I expected it to be.

Yep..way east of the track this morning and continues to track east of the updated..let's see if it gets back..this is more than a wobble..bad news for NO

How do you figure that about N.O.? What about MS, Al. or Fl. Do you have inside information or what?

[Cape Verde]

The 100,000 residents of the Isle of Youth are about to have an exciting Saturday.

I woldn't call a CAT3 or even a Cat4 slamming into your area would be considered exciting, but i know, I think you're speaking sarcasm.

I guess it could be interpreted as sarcasm, but I was deliberately understating the obvious for effect. It's going to be more than exciting. Believe it or not, there are a lot of pine trees on that island and a bunch of them are going to become airborne missiles. Expect fatalities.

I hate the Cuban government, but every Cuban I've met is a very nice person. I would not wish this storm on them, but it's going to happen anyway.

[Shoshana]

I just saw it on CNN. It is not mandatory, but Nagin did say they should evacuate the city over the "next couple of days."

I think I heard/read that starting Sunday? or maybe Monday? that they have permission to arrest anyone that even walks outside in NO.

Mandatory Evacuations by Parish from wwltv.com ... I'm almost positive these are parishes south of NO. They're trying to control traffic so they don't wind up with a Rita situation.

Lafourche -- 3 p.m., Saturday

Plaquemines -- noon, Saturday

St. Bernard -- 4 p.m., Saturday

St. Charles -- noon, Saturday

St. Mary -- 4 p.m., Saturday

Terrebonne -- 4 p.m, Saturday

And has been said befire, they're doing a live stream...

[Stormcenter]

What track are you guys looking at? I'm plotting on the NHC's website and it appears pretty much spot on, albeit some wobbles, but overall motion pretty much on track. Certainly not "way east".

I know but you know some have to analyze every satelliet frame and
come to the conclusion it's not following NHC's track.

[Stormcenter]

From WV and IR, looks like most intense convection is on the west side like this morning before it wrapped up. Why is the convection maintaining on the west but not the east?

Sorry if this has been discussed before.

A good sign!!!

[cpdaman]

What track are you guys looking at? I'm plotting on the NHC's website and it appears pretty much spot on, albeit some wobbles, but overall motion pretty much on track. Certainly not "way east".

I know but you know some have to analyze every satelliet frame and
come to the conclusion it's not following NHC's track.

I agree, It's still pretty much on with the NHC track and a overall NW motion. Then again the people saying it's east are also on the eastern side of the forecast track so take it for what it's worth.

you have to understand one thing

every 6 hours they update the forecast points to account for where the storm now is

at 11 they moved them east, that is why they look on target right now ( and i am only talking about the first couple forecast points, not the final landfall yet)

[Scorpion]

HWRF 904 mb at landfall

[Aric Dunn]

[Jason_B]

What track are you guys looking at? I'm plotting on the NHC's website and it appears pretty much spot on, albeit some wobbles, but overall motion pretty much on track. Certainly not "way east".

I agree, It's still pretty much on with the NHC track and a overall NW motion. Then again the people saying it's east are also on the eastern side of the forecast track so take it for what it's worth.

[dixiebreeze]

you have to understand one thing

every 6 hours they update the forecast points to account for where the storm now is

at 11 they moved them east, that is why they look on target right now ( and i am only talking about the first couple forecast points, not the final landfall yet)[/quote]

Thanks for posting that important point.

[gboudx]

What track are you guys looking at? I'm plotting on the NHC's website and it appears pretty much spot on, albeit some wobbles, but overall motion pretty much on track. Certainly not "way east".

you have to understand one thing

every 6 hours they update the forecast points to account for where the storm now is

at 11 they moved them east, that is why they look on target right now ( and i am only talking about the first couple forecast points, not the final landfall yet)

So we're not talking about what we have current? Gotcha. How about we plot against the track the NHC had when it came off of Haiti. I bet it's way off too.

I feel like I'm getting sucked into the wobble-war/-removed- bullcrap. Nevermind.

[Stratusxpeye]

Gustav has been on the incline and I'd be willing to bet Cat 4 right now. Recon reporting back on some 140knt +

[evalea]

I have a question about intensity. I'm looking at impact forecasts for Lafayette, its from a company (impact weather) that specializes in providing weather forecasts for companies. (Not my company, so I can't call their mets and ask them!). Its got some really good resources on there, but one of the things I noticed is that they are forecasting a fall in intensity as it makes landfall. They are predicting a cat 1. I also noticed that some of the models have it weakening as it gets closer. My question is this, what conditions are there, if any, to indicate that Gus might weaken as it approaches land?

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
120 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008


DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS
NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 200 PM
EDT TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES. THE SPECIAL
PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Aric Dunn]

HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
120 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008


DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS
NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 200 PM
EDT TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES. THE SPECIAL
PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

Based upon the data, this looks like a 115KT cat 3

[Brent]

HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
120 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008


DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS
NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 200 PM
EDT TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES. THE SPECIAL
PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Cape Verde]

Good lord. Cat 4 plowing into that island.

[TTheriot1975]

ok...cat 4 is horrible and it is bad for cuba right now. I really would appreciate a met to look at the ridge situation and see what it is doing right now. Is it closing it's gap pretty fast, right on schedule, slower?

[Brent]

Not much to say here.

[njweather]

Holy poop....

Does anyone know what kind of cities in Cuba are going to be slammed, pop. / poverty-wise?

My prayers for those in its path...