ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[tolakram]

yeah it is...is that updated?...b/c all I hear is Gus is right of its points...

It helps when you move the points.

[gboudx]

What has happened with the gulfstream flight.? I heard that all the information from last night could be used due to issues. Has anyone heard anything..?

CONFIRM OR DENY? ANYONE?

I can only point you to a comment from jeff in his AM update today.

GIV aircraft data was ingested into the 00Z and 06Z models overnight and there is only slight change at day 4-5.

His entire update is in a thread in Tropical Analysis forum.

[Agua]

Thanks

[Scorpion]

[Nimbus]

Since the last gulfstream flight we have seen ridging start to push down into the gulf. Timing seems a little early for the ridge build, could that slow the forward speed? Will there be another gulfstream flight scheduled?

[TTheriot1975]

ok...cat 4 is horrible and it is bad for cuba right now. I really would appreciate a met to look at the ridge situation and see what it is doing right now. Is it closing it's gap pretty fast, right on schedule, slower?

[Matthew Williams]

Nimbus, there is another GIV flight today. Also, I believe it will have 3 hour fixes on Sunday. I will be interested to see why outflow is not expanding on the western side and how that ridge is doing.

[PTPatrick]

if anyone has not seen CMC at 12z it goes into LaFourche>terrebone with the eastern eyewall going right over Baton Rouge...or at least with the resolution of the CMC it would appear the eastern eyewall would go over BR

Are 12z HWRF and GFDL out yet?

[HCSD]

247

WHXX04 KWBC 301728

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



HURRICANE GUSTAV 07L



INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 30



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 20.7 81.6 320./11.1

6 21.6 82.6 313./12.9

12 22.5 83.7 310./13.6

18 23.4 84.6 314./11.7

24 24.4 85.7 313./14.2

30 25.4 86.8 311./14.1

36 26.4 87.8 314./14.4

42 27.2 89.1 301./13.8

48 28.0 90.3 306./13.5

54 28.9 91.4 310./12.8

60 29.8 92.4 310./12.4

66 30.4 93.3 305./10.3

72 31.2 94.1 313./10.2

78 31.7 94.8 305./ 7.3

84 32.1 95.2 314./ 5.3

90 32.1 95.6 282./ 3.2

96 32.2 95.8 279./ 2.2

102 32.0 95.8 165./ 1.5

108 32.2 95.7 23./ 1.3

114 31.8 95.9 208./ 3.9

120 31.7 95.8 135./ 1.7

126 31.7 95.7 90./ .7

[Nimbus]

Several of the pro mets mentioned the trough might cut off into a TUTT. It appears from the water vapor imagery that could be happening. Perhaps the restricted outflow on Gustavs western side is a result of interaction with the closed TUTT or ULL. If the ridge continues building south any ULL circulation is going to center SW of Gutav and perhaps help ventilate or even kick him WNW a little before landfall.

The current model runs are playing catchup with an evolving upper air pattern so there is still time for change after the next round of high resolution upper air data.

[PTPatrick]

12z CMC Terrebone/Lafourhce to Shreveport
12z UKMET Terrebone landfall, loops through lafayette an down the Texas Coast


If you look at hanna's 12z run HWRF it almost looks as it the SW movement of Gustav is a Fujiwara thing...like they are "dancing"...crazy stuff.


EDIT: 12 HWRF just came out...908 pressure at landfall. Look like IN Vermillion bay but Terrebon is on the eastern eyewall.

EDIT GFDL Graphic at 12 Z Landfall West of Vermillion Bay but it does loop back...goes all the way to Dallas!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[AL Chili Pepper]

UKMet: Looks like it crosses the LA coast before the southward dive.
=============================================
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 30.08.2008
HURRICANE GUSTAV ANALYSED POSITION : 20.8N 81.4W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072008

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.08.2008 20.8N 81.4W STRONG
00UTC 31.08.2008 22.3N 83.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.08.2008 23.8N 84.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2008 26.0N 86.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2008 27.7N 88.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2008 28.6N 89.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2008 29.4N 91.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2008 30.0N 92.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 03.09.2008 30.2N 93.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2008 29.5N 93.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2008 28.8N 94.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.09.2008 27.9N 95.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2008 27.2N 96.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

[Scorpion]

GFDL:

HWRF:

[PTPatrick]

Does anybody think that with NHC forecasting a cat 5 now that it would tend to move more on the east side of their cone, despite model guidance. I know the "cat 5 makes it own environtment thing" is horse poo...but I would think that it could be steered a little more north quicker at that strength.

[cape_escape]

I've been coming here since 2004, and Charley, and I've never noticed the Mariners' 1-2-3 Rule before...can someone explain that for me please? I was looking at the NHC's page and saw it. Thank you in advance!

[AL Chili Pepper]

I've been coming here since 2004, and Charley, and I've never noticed the Mariners' 1-2-3 Rule before...can someone explain that for me please? I was looking at the NHC's page and saw it. Thank you in advance!

Wiki say:
The 1-2-3 rule (mariners' 1-2-3 rule or danger area) is a guideline commonly taught to mariners for severe storm (specifically hurricane and tropical storm) tracking and prediction. It refers to the rounded long-term NHC/TPC forecast errors of 100-200-300 nautical miles at 24-48-72 hours, respectively. However, these errors have decreased to near 50-100-150 as NHC forecasters become more accurate. The "danger area" to be avoided is constructed by expanding the forecast path by a radius equal to the respective hundreds of miles plus the forecast wind radii (size of the storm at those hours).[4]

[WindRunner]

I've been coming here since 2004, and Charley, and I've never noticed the Mariners' 1-2-3 Rule before...can someone explain that for me please? I was looking at the NHC's page and saw it. Thank you in advance!

That's just a very old product intended to show the forecast of any TCs (or any possible TC formation) out through 72hrs, and the cones are based off of the old NHC verification numbers with an average error of 100nm at 24hr, 200nm at 48hr, and 300nm at 72hr. The actual errors are now much lower (250-300nm at 120hr is average now), but the product has stayed the same.

[cape_escape]

Thank you AL Chili Pepper and WindRunner...I was a bit confused by it.

[Recurve]

If a cutoff low does develop, would that impart more northerly motion?

[Nederlander]