ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[bvigal]

Accuweather holding firm with Cat 2.

That map is off. Hanna isn't that far north. Seems Accuweather doesn't care that much about accuracy.

We are getting tail-end of Hanna in little bands of brief squalls. Right now it's coming down in hard, mean gusty rain.

[jinftl]

Sorry if I made it sound like anyone was forecasting a carolina strike here...what i was trying to get at that even from yesterday, the forecast track reasoning has changed some and the SW turn for a prolonged time seems less likely.

Yesterday there was talk that Hanna would never make it north of 25N....now there is talk of even the Carolinas having to keep an eye out....bottom line...a storm in the location hanna is requires everyone in the southeast to pay attention....with an obvious emphasis on florida due to closer proximity and forecast tracks.

Strength forecasting is not an art so hanna shouldn't be dismissed yet based on forecasts keeping it as a ts. Historically, the waters hanna will traverse have strengthened storms more than they have weakened them.

Before I start in No way am I saying Hanna is going to the Carolinas.
Now I said yesterday it wouldn't take that south turn for a few reasons I pointed out. But this brings Floyd to mine. Floyd was to go into Fl and was in miles of the fl coast and turned and went into NC. So I know so well. Another story but later with that one. But Floyd was a big hurricane and was a cat4 but when he got here was a cat1 I think. He was more rain than and thing. So a storm can go down in these waters by the coast.

[storms in NC]

Yesterday there was talk that Hanna would never make it north of 25N....now there is talk of even the Carolinas having to keep an eye out....bottom line...a storm in the location hanna is requires everyone in the southeast to pay attention....with an obvious emphasis on florida due to closer proximity and forecast tracks.

Strength forecasting is not an art so hanna shouldn't be dismissed yet based on forecasts keeping it as a ts. Historically, the waters hanna will traverse have strengthened storms more than they have weakened them.

Before I start in No way am I saying Hanna is going to the Carolinas.
Now I said yesterday it wouldn't take that south turn for a few reasons I pointed out. But this brings Floyd to mine. Floyd was to go into Fl and was in miles of the fl coast and turned and went into NC. So I know so well. Another story but later with that one. But Floyd was a big hurricane and was a cat4 but when he got here was a cat1 I think. He was more rain than and thing. So a storm can go down in these waters by the coast.

Hanna's nothing like floyd. Floyd was going straight towards florida but was sure to turn in response to a very deep trough forecfast to head off the US east coast. The only question with Floyd was when the right turn would occur. With Hannah there is no deep trough forecast.

Right that is what I was trying to say sorry.

[cpdaman]

i do however think this could get interesting shoud this LLC get on the NE side of the ULL

and i think intensity estimates are up in the air

looks to me like the last flare shows hanna is indeed moving NW/NNW and is near 23.2 / 66.8

and the ULL is dropping South. uh oh......hanna mabye getting on NE side of ULL soon .

but based on there "relationship" i don't think the ULL will let her go that easily.

After having had all morning to look at vis and wv imagery, I pretty much agree with you. I don't think the ULL is really moving all that much, however Hanna is, which means it will likely leave it behind...eventually. Assuming it does, it should get to a postion where the shear is less problematic, and perhaps even favorable. But first things first...let's see how Hanna fares as it moves by today/tonight - it still has a period of hostile conditions to get through first.

ya AJC3 and i was about a degree to far north with my 23.2 estimate, the convection was on the northern edge of her elongated LLC , so i'm not that sure she is moving all that fast, i agree it is a waiting game....i just love those..not

[storms in NC]

You cn also see she is a tad north of forcast mark. But that would be a few wobbles here and there no big deal

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[meteorologyman]

ya AJC3 and i was about a degree to far north with my 23.2 estimate, the convection was on the northern edge of her elongated LLC , so i'm not that sure she is moving all that fast, i agree it is a waiting game....i just love those..not[/quote]

You know weather is like a game of chess. you never know what the next players moves are going to be, but right now the King(Gustav) is makeing the move towards cuba and the Queen (King) is fighting the enemies knight (ULL) heading towards the Bahamas

[Blown Away]

IMO, Hanna has been slowly improving over the past few hours. The deep convection to the N of the LLC has been maintaining and building and Hanna is still wrapping around the W side of the circulation.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Philly12]

I tend to agree. Motion looks like 270.

[captain east]

IMO, Hanna has been slowly improving over the past few hours. The deep convection to the N of the LLC has been maintaining and building and Hanna is still wrapping around the W side of the circulation.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Me too, looks like she might not be exposed soon...

[storms in NC]

On the last few frames Hanna is moving almost due North.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[cpdaman]

one thing to note is the drier air on the SE side of the ULL is putting out the fire of convection to the east of hanna

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[Blown Away]

On the last few frames Hanna is moving almost due North.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

No just watch the deep convection ball on the N side of the circulation, she is still moving WNW.

[NativeFloridaGirl]

On the last few frames Hanna is moving almost due North.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I don't know what you're seeing, but the llc is ever so slightly north of the NHC forecast points on that loop you posted.

~Beth~

[cpdaman]

delete

[storms in NC]

On the last few frames Hanna is moving almost due North.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I don't know what you're seeing, but the llc is ever so slightly north of the NHC forecast points on that loop you posted.

~Beth~

Yes . It just went north the last few frames but the over all track is WNW

[OuterBanker]

First time I've been able to get on in a day. When last I checked Hanna was going across straights and up the west coast of Fl into the panhandle. Now it has changed to the east coast of Fl. From what I can read (don't really want to go through 60 some pages) it look like the sw movement is out. What has happened to change it, thought the powerful high was supposed to push her into Gulf?

[tolakram]

[Philly12]

Hanna looks to be wrapping moisture around her center (filling in the dry slot vacated by the ULL) and shedding the convection blob off to her east. Once that blob is gone, I think the center will try to consolidate. Of course this my amatuer opinion..

[tolakram]

Looks like she's passing the ULL right now, convection now building on the N/NE side of the LLC.

[cpdaman]

anyone want to see a pic of a LLC elongated big time?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

reminds me of an elastic band being stretched to the max, then ..........snap