
ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea
I'm a very logical, calm thinking person and this has me concerned even in the Baton Rouge area. My family is coming up from Terrebonne Parish but some of them may go even further north to Avoyelles Parish. I hope my hometown (Houma) makes it but if this track holds true I fear that place may be gone. Slosh shows 12-15 feet of water in downtown Houma for this type of storm. BR could be looking at between Cat 1-2 winds according to the path it's supposed to take. We did fine as far as winds (for Katrina) but this even has me a tiny bit concerned that maybe we should even move a tad bit further inland.
Last edited by SoupBone on Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1927
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea
Jason_B wrote:Gustav does not have a Katrina/Ivan/Rita type size though, so I don't know about a widespread massive surge like those storms had. Of course it could grow in size in the Gulf but right now Gustav is more comparable to Dennis and Charley with the surge most likely being isolated to the core of the storm.
No, Gustav if a good bit bigger than Charley right now. Gustav may be smaller than some of the bigger ones, but he's bigger than Charley. Up here in Orlando, we've been getting some pounding rains from what appears to be some outer feter bands and that was unexpected.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
wow pressure may have nearly falling 8 to 10 MB since the last pass...
http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur ... .knhc..txt
the next set of obs will have the center fix..
the last one on that still had 14 kt winds.. with 938mb
http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur ... .knhc..txt
the next set of obs will have the center fix..
the last one on that still had 14 kt winds.. with 938mb
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
- Hurricanewatcher2007
- Category 2
- Posts: 578
- Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2008 8:10 pm
Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea
115kts southeast quad with a pressure of 938.9 and still falling!
Last edited by Hurricanewatcher2007 on Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:wow pressure may have nearly falling 8 to 10 MB since the last pass...
http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur ... .knhc..txt
I doubt it. The NOAA and AF plane have been 4 or 5 mb too low every time all night.
0 likes
Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea
Not sure a storm will have to have the strength and diameter of say a Katrina to cause major problems if Gustav hits a vulnerable area. These areas have not been tested since 2005.
No need for mindless panic...just mindful preparation.
No need for mindless panic...just mindful preparation.
Jason_B wrote:Gustav does not have a Katrina/Ivan/Rita type size though, so I don't know about a widespread massive surge like those storms had. Of course it could grow in size in the Gulf but right now Gustav is more comparable to Dennis and Charley with the surge most likely being isolated to the core of the storm.
0 likes
- canetracker
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 751
- Age: 62
- Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2005 8:49 pm
- Location: Suburbia New Orleans...Harahan, LA
Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea
SoupBone wrote:I'm a very logical, calm thinking person and this has me concerned even in the Baton Rouge area. My family is coming up from Terrebonne Parish but some of them may go even further north to Avoyelles Parish. I hope my hometown (Houma) makes it but if this track holds true I fear that place may be gone. Slosh shows 12-15 feet of water in downtown Houma for this type of storm. BR could be looking at between Cat 1-2 winds according to the path it's supposed to take. We did fine as far as winds but this even has me a tiny bit concerned that maybe we should even move a tad bit further inland.
This has me very concerned too!! SELA or Baton Rouge does not look promising. Also, regarding Hurrakan's above animated graphic. Gustav looks to be moving a little faster.
0 likes
- WindRunner
- Category 5
- Posts: 5806
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
- Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
- Contact:
Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:wow pressure may have nearly falling 8 to 10 MB since the last pass...
http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur ... .knhc..txt
There were some observations suggesting that it was already lower than 945mb (i.e. the dropsonde in the eyewall that we assumed was faulty in reporting a pressure of 935mb) - and I wouldn't put it at 10mb lower. 6 to 8mb, yes.
0 likes
Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea
Jason_B wrote:Gustav does not have a Katrina/Ivan/Rita type size though, so I don't know about a widespread massive surge like those storms had. Of course it could grow in size in the Gulf but right now Gustav is more comparable to Dennis and Charley with the surge most likely being isolated to the core of the storm.
No. Just.NO
Charley and Dennis were SMALL. Gustav is NOT a small hurricane. Not a giant, but entirely respectable.
Second: Surge depends on the lay of the sea and coast. Check out Gustave, his orientation and the coast that he's driving towards. It's SHALLOW, and Gustav has been driving in deepwater the whole time, and there is LIMITED outlet to the north of Isle of Youth and south of Western Cuba Mainland. This is going to be an unprecedented surge event, imo.
0 likes
- JtSmarts
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1437
- Age: 39
- Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:29 pm
- Location: Columbia, South Carolina
Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea
Gustav is a bit bigger than Dennis. Dennis's Hurricane extended 50 miles away from the center at Cuban landfall.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pu ... .016.shtml?
Gustav's hurricane force winds currently extend about 70 miles away from the center.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1805.shtml
Of course he is still smaller than Katrina/Rita at this point and a good ways larger than Charley whose winds extended out 30 miles at Cuban and US landfall.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pu ... .016.shtml?
Gustav's hurricane force winds currently extend about 70 miles away from the center.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1805.shtml
Of course he is still smaller than Katrina/Rita at this point and a good ways larger than Charley whose winds extended out 30 miles at Cuban and US landfall.
Last edited by JtSmarts on Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1927
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea
SoupBone wrote:I'm a very logical, calm thinking person and this has me concerned even in the Baton Rouge area. My family is coming up from Terrebonne Parish but some of them may go even further north to Avoyelles Parish. I hope my hometown (Houma) makes it but if this track holds true I fear that place may be gone. Slosh shows 12-15 feet of water in downtown Houma for this type of storm. BR could be looking at between Cat 1-2 winds according to the path it's supposed to take. We did fine as far as winds (for Katrina) but this even has me a tiny bit concerned that maybe we should even move a tad bit further inland.
Derek Ortt thinks that BR could get upwards of 90-100 mph gusts if his forecast holds.

Last edited by otowntiger on Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6358
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
- Location: Miramar Bch. FL
Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea
otowntiger wrote:Jason_B wrote:Gustav does not have a Katrina/Ivan/Rita type size though, so I don't know about a widespread massive surge like those storms had. Of course it could grow in size in the Gulf but right now Gustav is more comparable to Dennis and Charley with the surge most likely being isolated to the core of the storm.
No, Gustav if a good bit bigger than Charley right now. Gustav may be smaller than some of the bigger ones, but he's bigger than Charley. Up here in Orlando, we've been getting some pounding rains from what appears to be some outer feter bands and that was unexpected.
And Camille was a compact little 'cane.Look what she did
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: Re:
WindRunner wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:wow pressure may have nearly falling 8 to 10 MB since the last pass...
http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur ... .knhc..txt
There were some observations suggesting that it was already lower than 945mb (i.e. the dropsonde in the eyewall that we assumed was faulty in reporting a pressure of 935mb) - and I wouldn't put it at 10mb lower. 6 to 8mb, yes.
that last ob still had 14kt winds..
so it may be lower
so the pressure was 945? so yeah 6 to 8
0 likes
Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea
jinftl wrote: A Cat 4....maybe a Cat 5...storm is moving into the Gulf and is going to develop a surge that reflects such a strong storm. The surge will remain even if the storm is weaker at landfall.
Didn't some areas get 30 ft surge in Katrina? And this could be stronger when it hits.
Last edited by Praxus on Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes
Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea
otowntiger wrote:SoupBone wrote:I'm a very logical, calm thinking person and this has me concerned even in the Baton Rouge area. My family is coming up from Terrebonne Parish but some of them may go even further north to Avoyelles Parish. I hope my hometown (Houma) makes it but if this track holds true I fear that place may be gone. Slosh shows 12-15 feet of water in downtown Houma for this type of storm. BR could be looking at between Cat 1-2 winds according to the path it's supposed to take. We did fine as far as winds (for Katrina) but this even has me a tiny bit concerned that maybe we should even move a tad bit further inland.
Derek Ortt thinks that BR could get upwards of 90-100 mph gusts if his forecast holds.Thats a lot for a city that far inland!
Are you serious? Man I respect Derek too and his posts and I must have missed that one. I'll keep watching but I may have to send my family further north.

0 likes
Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea
Does anyone live on that island that it is currently bombing over?
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 67 guests