ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#6921 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:30 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea

#6922 Postby SoupBone » Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:32 pm

I'm a very logical, calm thinking person and this has me concerned even in the Baton Rouge area. My family is coming up from Terrebonne Parish but some of them may go even further north to Avoyelles Parish. I hope my hometown (Houma) makes it but if this track holds true I fear that place may be gone. Slosh shows 12-15 feet of water in downtown Houma for this type of storm. BR could be looking at between Cat 1-2 winds according to the path it's supposed to take. We did fine as far as winds (for Katrina) but this even has me a tiny bit concerned that maybe we should even move a tad bit further inland.
Last edited by SoupBone on Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1927
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm

Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea

#6923 Postby otowntiger » Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:32 pm

Jason_B wrote:Gustav does not have a Katrina/Ivan/Rita type size though, so I don't know about a widespread massive surge like those storms had. Of course it could grow in size in the Gulf but right now Gustav is more comparable to Dennis and Charley with the surge most likely being isolated to the core of the storm.


No, Gustav if a good bit bigger than Charley right now. Gustav may be smaller than some of the bigger ones, but he's bigger than Charley. Up here in Orlando, we've been getting some pounding rains from what appears to be some outer feter bands and that was unexpected.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#6924 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:32 pm

wow pressure may have nearly falling 8 to 10 MB since the last pass...

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur ... .knhc..txt

the next set of obs will have the center fix..

the last one on that still had 14 kt winds.. with 938mb
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricanewatcher2007
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 578
Joined: Sat Jul 05, 2008 8:10 pm

Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea

#6925 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:33 pm

115kts southeast quad with a pressure of 938.9 and still falling!
Last edited by Hurricanewatcher2007 on Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re:

#6926 Postby RL3AO » Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:34 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:wow pressure may have nearly falling 8 to 10 MB since the last pass...

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur ... .knhc..txt


I doubt it. The NOAA and AF plane have been 4 or 5 mb too low every time all night.
0 likes   

jinftl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4312
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:47 pm
Location: fort lauderdale, fl

Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea

#6927 Postby jinftl » Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:34 pm

Not sure a storm will have to have the strength and diameter of say a Katrina to cause major problems if Gustav hits a vulnerable area. These areas have not been tested since 2005.

No need for mindless panic...just mindful preparation.

Jason_B wrote:Gustav does not have a Katrina/Ivan/Rita type size though, so I don't know about a widespread massive surge like those storms had. Of course it could grow in size in the Gulf but right now Gustav is more comparable to Dennis and Charley with the surge most likely being isolated to the core of the storm.
0 likes   

User avatar
canetracker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 751
Age: 62
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2005 8:49 pm
Location: Suburbia New Orleans...Harahan, LA

Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea

#6928 Postby canetracker » Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:34 pm

SoupBone wrote:I'm a very logical, calm thinking person and this has me concerned even in the Baton Rouge area. My family is coming up from Terrebonne Parish but some of them may go even further north to Avoyelles Parish. I hope my hometown (Houma) makes it but if this track holds true I fear that place may be gone. Slosh shows 12-15 feet of water in downtown Houma for this type of storm. BR could be looking at between Cat 1-2 winds according to the path it's supposed to take. We did fine as far as winds but this even has me a tiny bit concerned that maybe we should even move a tad bit further inland.

This has me very concerned too!! SELA or Baton Rouge does not look promising. Also, regarding Hurrakan's above animated graphic. Gustav looks to be moving a little faster.
0 likes   

User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:

Re:

#6929 Postby WindRunner » Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:35 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:wow pressure may have nearly falling 8 to 10 MB since the last pass...

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur ... .knhc..txt


There were some observations suggesting that it was already lower than 945mb (i.e. the dropsonde in the eyewall that we assumed was faulty in reporting a pressure of 935mb) - and I wouldn't put it at 10mb lower. 6 to 8mb, yes.
0 likes   

shah8
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 363
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:36 pm

Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea

#6930 Postby shah8 » Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:35 pm

Jason_B wrote:Gustav does not have a Katrina/Ivan/Rita type size though, so I don't know about a widespread massive surge like those storms had. Of course it could grow in size in the Gulf but right now Gustav is more comparable to Dennis and Charley with the surge most likely being isolated to the core of the storm.


No. Just.NO

Charley and Dennis were SMALL. Gustav is NOT a small hurricane. Not a giant, but entirely respectable.

Second: Surge depends on the lay of the sea and coast. Check out Gustave, his orientation and the coast that he's driving towards. It's SHALLOW, and Gustav has been driving in deepwater the whole time, and there is LIMITED outlet to the north of Isle of Youth and south of Western Cuba Mainland. This is going to be an unprecedented surge event, imo.
0 likes   

User avatar
JtSmarts
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1437
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:29 pm
Location: Columbia, South Carolina

Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea

#6931 Postby JtSmarts » Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:35 pm

Gustav is a bit bigger than Dennis. Dennis's Hurricane extended 50 miles away from the center at Cuban landfall.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pu ... .016.shtml?

Gustav's hurricane force winds currently extend about 70 miles away from the center.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1805.shtml

Of course he is still smaller than Katrina/Rita at this point and a good ways larger than Charley whose winds extended out 30 miles at Cuban and US landfall.
Last edited by JtSmarts on Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1927
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm

Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea

#6932 Postby otowntiger » Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:35 pm

SoupBone wrote:I'm a very logical, calm thinking person and this has me concerned even in the Baton Rouge area. My family is coming up from Terrebonne Parish but some of them may go even further north to Avoyelles Parish. I hope my hometown (Houma) makes it but if this track holds true I fear that place may be gone. Slosh shows 12-15 feet of water in downtown Houma for this type of storm. BR could be looking at between Cat 1-2 winds according to the path it's supposed to take. We did fine as far as winds (for Katrina) but this even has me a tiny bit concerned that maybe we should even move a tad bit further inland.


Derek Ortt thinks that BR could get upwards of 90-100 mph gusts if his forecast holds. :eek: Thats a lot for a city that far inland! Of course a fairly small deviation in track could change that significantly.
Last edited by otowntiger on Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

#6933 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:35 pm

Getting that BuzzSaw look about him!
0 likes   

User avatar
canegrl04
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2486
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 5:37 pm
Location: Texas

Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea

#6934 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:36 pm

otowntiger wrote:
Jason_B wrote:Gustav does not have a Katrina/Ivan/Rita type size though, so I don't know about a widespread massive surge like those storms had. Of course it could grow in size in the Gulf but right now Gustav is more comparable to Dennis and Charley with the surge most likely being isolated to the core of the storm.


No, Gustav if a good bit bigger than Charley right now. Gustav may be smaller than some of the bigger ones, but he's bigger than Charley. Up here in Orlando, we've been getting some pounding rains from what appears to be some outer feter bands and that was unexpected.


And Camille was a compact little 'cane.Look what she did
0 likes   

User avatar
AZRainman
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 146
Joined: Fri Sep 23, 2005 12:48 pm
Location: Sonoran Desert
Contact:

Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea

#6935 Postby AZRainman » Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:37 pm

Brother and sister....

Image
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Re:

#6936 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:37 pm

WindRunner wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:wow pressure may have nearly falling 8 to 10 MB since the last pass...

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur ... .knhc..txt


There were some observations suggesting that it was already lower than 945mb (i.e. the dropsonde in the eyewall that we assumed was faulty in reporting a pressure of 935mb) - and I wouldn't put it at 10mb lower. 6 to 8mb, yes.


that last ob still had 14kt winds..

so it may be lower

so the pressure was 945? so yeah 6 to 8
0 likes   

Praxus
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 473
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:19 pm

Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea

#6937 Postby Praxus » Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:38 pm

jinftl wrote: A Cat 4....maybe a Cat 5...storm is moving into the Gulf and is going to develop a surge that reflects such a strong storm. The surge will remain even if the storm is weaker at landfall.


Didn't some areas get 30 ft surge in Katrina? And this could be stronger when it hits.
Last edited by Praxus on Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea

#6938 Postby SoupBone » Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:38 pm

otowntiger wrote:
SoupBone wrote:I'm a very logical, calm thinking person and this has me concerned even in the Baton Rouge area. My family is coming up from Terrebonne Parish but some of them may go even further north to Avoyelles Parish. I hope my hometown (Houma) makes it but if this track holds true I fear that place may be gone. Slosh shows 12-15 feet of water in downtown Houma for this type of storm. BR could be looking at between Cat 1-2 winds according to the path it's supposed to take. We did fine as far as winds (for Katrina) but this even has me a tiny bit concerned that maybe we should even move a tad bit further inland.


Derek Ortt thinks that BR could get upwards of 90-100 mph gusts if his forecast holds. :eek: Thats a lot for a city that far inland!


Are you serious? Man I respect Derek too and his posts and I must have missed that one. I'll keep watching but I may have to send my family further north. :roll:
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146244
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea

#6939 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:38 pm

Image
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea

#6940 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:39 pm

Does anyone live on that island that it is currently bombing over?
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 67 guests