ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Landfall reported by the RECON airplane on the Isle of Youth, Cuba.

[soonertwister]

Gustav is not a small hurricane. Currently, hurricane force winds extend 70 miles form the center and ts force winds extend 175 mph from the center. Gusts to 40 mph have been occuring in squalls all the way to south florida today.

By comparison, Charley had hurricane force winds only 30 miles from the center and ts force winds 105 miles from the center at its strongest right before landfall.

Katrina has hurricane force winds approx 100 miles from the center and ts force winds 230 miles from the center.

I think as Gustav pulls away from Cuba, the storm is likely to expand in size considerably. It could be comparable in size to a Katrina by Monday and Tuesday. The NHC has it falling briefly back to a cat-3, then cat-4 all the way to landfall.

[THead]

Does anyone live on that island that it is currently bombing over?

Yes, quite a few. I think someone earlier said something like 100,000.

BTW, NOLA Mayor Ray Nagin says he "may" order mandatory evacuation for New Orleans proper at 9 am tomorrow if the track doesn't move to the west.

9 am is about 48 hours from landfall, more or less depending on forward speed. The travelling conditions are going to deteriorate badly far in advance of landfall. Already traffic on I-10 heading west out of town is described to be at a crawl.

Here we go again...

9am Sunday will be less than 36 hours before landfall, going by the 2pm NHC update. And that's if the center follows the forecast line exactly. Any deviation to the right especially would make landfall even earlier. They better get moving...

[Recurve]

Last vortex data message location and drops --

[PTPatrick]

No expert on louisiana topography but I cant find a anywhere in LaFourche, Terrebonne, Plaquemines, Jefferson, St. Charles, Assumption or St. James, St. Mary, or south St. Martin Parrish that is above about 10 feet. Iberia, right around New Iberia looks to be around 15ft. Thibidoeaux and Houma are both about 10 feet above MSL from what I can tell. Although my map is not terribly well drawn. Are these places protected by levees and if so how high?

[HouTXmetro]

They have already started voluntary evacuations and urgred everyone to leave.

[njweather]

Anyone know when the previous dropsonde was dropped?

[tallywx]

Courtesy of WeatherTap - notice the lightning in Gustav's northern eyewall from the violent dynamics? We saw the same thing in Katrina, Rita, and Charley as they were rapidly intensifying. This tells me that Gustav is continuing to bomb as we speak.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This looks catastrophic...If anyone from New Orleans or
the ENTIRE CONE REGION happens
to be reading this thread...AND LIVE IN A SURGE ZONE, I have 3 words: GET OUT NOW!!!
I'm sure many have evacauted. Also not just new orleans but many
on the gulf coast if you are in a surge zone: GET OUT NOW!!!
My prayers are with you and I am hoping to God that something
happens that somehow kills off the storm surge or stops Gustav.
I believe that prayers help.

An outer band of Gustav produced wind gusts to 40 mph here along
a Saint Petersburg Canal, over 300 miles from the center. Outer bands
are producing gusty winds to tropical storm force well away from the center,
meaning hundreds of miles. THIS IS NOT A SMALL STORM.

Again, PRAYERS with all of those in the path. We can only hope that somehow
massive shear arrives and destroys Gustav completely before it even gets near
any more land. Right now Cuba is going through a catastrophic hurricane.
My prayers are with them. The communist government evacuated everyone
hopefully.

[soonertwister]

I can't figure out why so many people are evacuating west out of NOLA, they have to traverse almost the entire landfall cone to reach a safe place.

[Cape Verde]

No expert on louisiana topography but I cant find a anywhere in LaFourche, Terrebonne, Plaquemines, Jefferson, St. Charles, Assumption or St. James, St. Mary, or south St. Martin Parrish that is above about 10 feet. Iberia, right around New Iberia looks to be around 15ft. Thibidoeaux and Houma are both about 10 feet above MSL from what I can tell. Although my map is not terribly well drawn. Are these places protected by levees and if so how high?

Damn, you fixed your typo before I could make fun of it.

I won't say anything else about that.

The only levees protecting Louisiana that I know of, and I used to live there, are along the Mississippi River. The other coastal areas are sitting ducks.

[Recurve]

Drop -- 2:40 EDT 18:40z is the last one I see

[Brent]

WOW

[jinftl]

New Orleans Louis Armstrong Airport set to close at 6pm on Sunday.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/08/30/gustav.prepare/index.html

[TideJoe]

What were max gusts Baton Rouge saw with Katrina? Don't know if they were as high as 85 or 90mph.

I'm a very logical, calm thinking person and this has me concerned even in the Baton Rouge area. My family is coming up from Terrebonne Parish but some of them may go even further north to Avoyelles Parish. I hope my hometown (Houma) makes it but if this track holds true I fear that place may be gone. Slosh shows 12-15 feet of water in downtown Houma for this type of storm. BR could be looking at between Cat 1-2 winds according to the path it's supposed to take. We did fine as far as winds (for Katrina) but this even has me a tiny bit concerned that maybe we should even move a tad bit further inland.

I think we saw between 30-40 sustained for Katrina with higher gusts but it really wasn't that bad. This angle has me concerned though. It looks like the NE quadrant will sweep right over us.[/quote]

Hattiesburg is about 60 miles inland and we had gusts well over 100 mph during Katrina. BR is going to get some heavy wind.

[PTPatrick]

I just read about Houma. LSU did a study that if Rita had hit the mouth of Atchafalaya river, most of Houma would have been pretty much underwater...

[njweather]

Drop -- 2:40 EDT 18:40z is the last one I see

Wow... 2mb drop in less than an hour..

[dwg71]

brent that looks north of path, possibly. looks like dead center is off northern coast

[Recurve]

No expert on louisiana topography but I cant find a anywhere in LaFourche, Terrebonne, Plaquemines, Jefferson, St. Charles, Assumption or St. James, St. Mary, or south St. Martin Parrish that is above about 10 feet. Iberia, right around New Iberia looks to be around 15ft. Thibidoeaux and Houma are both about 10 feet above MSL from what I can tell. Although my map is not terribly well drawn. Are these places protected by levees and if so how high?

Damn, you fixed your typo before I could make fun of it.

I won't say anything else about that.

The only levees protecting Louisiana that I know of, and I used to live there, are along the Mississippi River. The other coastal areas are sitting ducks.

There's higher ground in SW LA at natural levees along rivers, plus some flood control levees around the Atchafalaya. There are flood walls along the river outlet at Morgan City as far as I remember. New Iberia's high ground I believe is high along the Teche natural levee.
Huge rainfall would be a big problem. It would be good to see a surge model, does it flow up the Atachfalaya basin and do the outer levees protect Henderson, etc from backside surge flooding?

Not a hydro expert or local, just have traveled and studied some of SW LA.

[Cape Verde]

I can't figure out why so many people are evacuating west out of NOLA, they have to traverse almost the entire landfall cone to reach a safe place.

Evacuating west to Houston is stupid unless you're continuing on to Austin. Yes, it looks like a Louisiana storm RIGHT NOW, but it doesn't have to shift too much to the west to make it a Houston storm.

I had neighbors here who evacuated to Beaumont to get out of Rita's path. They evacuated right into it.

North. North. North.

It's basic common sense. None of us here know where the precise landfall will be, but it will be on the coast. DUH. Head inland.