ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[jinftl]

Neither was Katrina at landfall a Cat 4 or 5.

What category surge will Gustav carry with him...that is the question.

This looks catastrophic...If anyone from New Orleans or
the ENTIRE CONE REGION happens
to be reading this thread...AND LIVE IN A SURGE ZONE, I have 3 words: GET OUT NOW!!!
I'm sure many have evacauted. Also not just new orleans but many
on the gulf coast if you are in a surge zone: GET OUT NOW!!!
My prayers are with you and I am hoping to God that something
happens that somehow kills off the storm surge or stops Gustav.
I believe that prayers help.

An outer band of Gustav produced wind gusts to 40 mph here along
a Saint Petersburg Canal, over 300 miles from the center. Outer bands
are producing gusty winds to tropical storm force well away from the center,
meaning hundreds of miles. THIS IS NOT A SMALL STORM.

Again, PRAYERS with all of those in the path. We can only hope that somehow
massive shear arrives and destroys Gustav completely before it even gets near
any more land. Right now Cuba is going through a catastrophic hurricane.
My prayers are with them. The communist government evacuated everyone
hopefully.

Weather Channel just said this would not be Cat.4 or 5 when it makes
landfall, if that makes anyone feel better.

[soonertwister]

I can't figure out why so many people are evacuating west out of NOLA, they have to traverse almost the entire landfall cone to reach a safe place.

It's about getting inland and above the surge path. NO is very low moving west can get you to higher ground.

The entire area from Houston to NOLA (and beyond) is coastal plain. There is no high ground, just some here and there that's a bit higher.

[dwg71]

that spaghetti model has furthest west verm bay, east nola.

[superfly]

Does anyone have the bulletin the NHC put out with Katrina that had what a Cat 5 damage would be like? It was fairly long and had all of the dangers of debris, impact on tall buldings, etc?

000
WWUS74 KLIX 281550
NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

[Recurve]

It's as dark as 9 p.m. at night here.

[Jason_B]

Those of you saying this is so far north and east of the NHC can you please back that up, because everything I'm seeing it's following the NHC's track.

[bahamaswx]

The population on that island has probably been decreased drastically...

That's the Isle of Youth, not Haiti. They'll be alright.

[Derek Ortt]

brent that looks north of path, possibly. looks like dead center is off northern coast

Yeah dwg..north and east of the mostupdated track, I wonder how much it is off from the track early this morning..bit east of the models that had thos going directly over the island..Increasing concern for SE LA imo

5am forecast had it at 21.2N and 82.7W at 5pm this evening. Last update was 21.6N 82.5 west. thats a big miss.

Ther eis no forecast point given for 5 p.m.

The forecast point was for 2 p.m.. Error only about 30NM. Good forecast by NHC!

[rockyman]

Dauphin Island and Bayou La Batre, Alabama, were devastated by Katrina...and we received "only Category 1" winds...here on the coast, we know that the surge generated by Gustav will not magically disappear just because the winds die down.

[Garnetcat5]

New computer, could some post link to spag. models.

[dwg71]

Those of you saying this is so far north and east of the NHC can you please back that up, because everything I'm seeing it's following the NHC's track.

Forecast at 5am was missed pretty big. it had 12 position at 21.2 and 82.7, last update was 21.6N 82.5 w. They updated it and moved slightly east. track is slightly south of actual position now. lets see what 5pm update does

[TTheriot1975]

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

[Jagno]

I can't figure out why so many people are evacuating west out of NOLA, they have to traverse almost the entire landfall cone to reach a safe place.

Because Hanna is threatening the east coast and we do not want to invade these people when they will be seeking shelter themselves. We are a very friendly bunch of people. LOL

Canada is looking promising.

[BigB0882]

That is a horrifying update that New Orleans posted.

[dhweather]

5am forecast had it at 21.2N and 82.7W at 5pm this evening. Last update was 21.6N 82.5 west. thats a big miss.

Ther eis no forecast point given for 5 p.m.

The forecast point was for 2 p.m.. Error only about 30NM. Good forecast by NHC![/quote]


You are correct Derek - the NHC has done a really good job with this storm so far, and there's a pretty tricky setup to try to forecast through.

[jinftl]

The expert at the top of the last hour on TWC who was beginning his talk about Hanna said she is moving west at 15 to 20 mph....until the graphic pulled up and said she was moving west at 8 mph.

Take what they say with a grain of salt about a storm, esp. one moving through the "Gulf of Georgia" ....an infamous misquote for the Gulf of Mexico from a met on TWC.

This looks catastrophic...If anyone from New Orleans or
the ENTIRE CONE REGION happens
to be reading this thread...AND LIVE IN A SURGE ZONE, I have 3 words: GET OUT NOW!!!
I'm sure many have evacauted. Also not just new orleans but many
on the gulf coast if you are in a surge zone: GET OUT NOW!!!
My prayers are with you and I am hoping to God that something
happens that somehow kills off the storm surge or stops Gustav.
I believe that prayers help.

An outer band of Gustav produced wind gusts to 40 mph here along
a Saint Petersburg Canal, over 300 miles from the center. Outer bands
are producing gusty winds to tropical storm force well away from the center,
meaning hundreds of miles. THIS IS NOT A SMALL STORM.

Again, PRAYERS with all of those in the path. We can only hope that somehow
massive shear arrives and destroys Gustav completely before it even gets near
any more land. Right now Cuba is going through a catastrophic hurricane.
My prayers are with them. The communist government evacuated everyone
hopefully.

Weather Channel just said this would not be Cat.4 or 5 when it makes
landfall, if that makes anyone feel better.

[dwg71]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al ... .022.shtml?

maybe i am missing something, but 5am discussion is linked and it stated.

INITIAL 30/0900Z 20.2N 81.3W 95 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 21.2N 82.7W 105 KT

gus did not make it anywhere near 21.2 82.7

[bqhurricane]

Please don't make derogatory comments about people evacuating NOLA to the West. Remember this - they ARE evacuating, which they did NOT do last time. There are hotels with room in Texas
not in Mississippi or Alabama.

I can understand that, but why evacuate to an area that could just as easily get hit? If that thing swings over to Houston and a ton of folks from Louisiana have the roads congested, then evacuation for the Houston area won't be possible at all.

[jasons2k]

That is a horrifying update that New Orleans posted.

That was from 2005, before Katrina

But I would expect a similar one from them Tomorrow

[chrisnnavarre]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al07/al072008.discus.022.shtml?

maybe i am missing something, but 5am discussion is linked and it stated.

INITIAL 30/0900Z 20.2N 81.3W 95 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 21.2N 82.7W 105 KT

gus did not make it anywhere near 21.2 82.7

Looks to miss the 31/00 UTC position to the east..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html