ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[soonertwister]

Weather Channel just said this would not be Cat.4 or 5 when it makes
landfall, if that makes anyone feel better.

[/quote]

NHC has Gustav at 125 knots up to landfall. I think I'll just go with the official forecast, if that's OK.

[srainhoutx]

It's as dark as 9 p.m. at night here.

Stay safe Recurve. Just got off the phone with friends in EYW. They said it is really coming in sheets with the squalls. Stay Safe in Big Pine.

[Derek Ortt]

Those of you saying this is so far north and east of the NHC can you please back that up, because everything I'm seeing it's following the NHC's track.

Forecast at 5am was missed pretty big. it had 12 position at 21.2 and 82.7, last update was 21.6N 82.5 w. They updated it and moved slightly east. track is slightly south of actual position now. lets see what 5pm update does

no it did not. An error of 30NM is LESS THAN THE MEAN

forecasts always verify at 0, 6, 12, and 18Z

[micktooth]

On WWLtv.com they are reporting that Gus is now a Cat 5, is this true?

[Jagno]

Please don't make derogatory comments about people evacuating NOLA to the West. Remember this - they ARE evacuating, which they did NOT do last time. There are hotels with room in Texas
not in Mississippi or Alabama.

I can understand that, but why evacuate to an area that could just as easily get hit? If that thing swings over to Houston and a ton of folks from Louisiana have the roads congested, then evacuation for the Houston area won't be possible at all.

Most are headed for northbound interstates. They will be long gone north before Houston is evacuated. Trust me, our whole state has been made very aware of how Texas doesn't want us there. Not a problem! We do have northbound interstates and highways across our state.

[abajan]

The population on that island has probably been decreased drastically...

You mean Isle of Youth? Let's not go overboard. Sure, some people may have been killed but a "drastic" reduction in population may be stretching things a bit. Even if Gustav was the most powerful hurricane ever (which it certainly isn't at this time) their population would not likely be drastically reduced.

[Dean4Storms]

You can simply put the Tropical Forecast Points on with the Sat, loop floater and see that the track has maintained a very slight east of forecasted track all day and continues. Nobody is saying that it will continue or that it means Florida lookout, but it is a FACT nonetheless.

[mtm4319]

http://www.wwltv.com/topstories/stories ... 97049.html

FEMA says Gustav soon to be rated Category 5

02:40 PM CDT on Saturday, August 30, 2008

Jennifer Loven / Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The government's disaster relief chief says Hurricane Gustav is growing into a monster Category 5 storm.

The storm that hit Cuba Saturday could reach landfall along the Gulf Coast by early Tuesday.

Federal Emergency Management Agency chief David Paulison told reporters several times at a briefing Saturday that the storm was strengthening into a Category 5 hurricane.

FEMA officials said Bill Read, the director of the National Hurricane Center, interrupted an afternoon teleconference involving the agency, Gulf Coast states and the National Weather Service to say he is going to issue a special advisory statement raising Gustav to Category 5. That means winds greater than 155 mph and a storm surge greater than 18 feet above normal.

Word about the Category 5 development reached FEMA shortly before Paulison briefed reporters

[jasons2k]

On WWLtv.com they are reporting that Gus is now a Cat 5, is this true?

No

[southerngale]

Please don't make derogatory comments about people evacuating NOLA to the West. Remember this - they ARE evacuating, which they did NOT do last time. There are hotels with room in Texas
not in Mississippi or Alabama.

There are? I'm a little surprised. 2 days ago, it took us several hours to finally find rooms in north Texas. We have a mandatory evac here as well. Please don't come into Texas and make a horrible evacuation here even worse. Go north.

[jasons2k]

There are news reports (AP, etc.) that Gustav is a Cat. 5 already - this is likely a misinterpertation of "it WILL be" a Cat. 5 by someone over at FEMA.

[stayawaynow]

There are news reports (AP, etc.) that Gustav is a Cat. 5 already - this is likely a misinterpertation of "it WILL be" a Cat. 5 by someone over at FEMA.

The Sun Sentinel in Ft. lauderdale website has it as a Cat 5.

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff Lindner:

Extremely dangerous hurricane heading for W Cuba.

Large and dangerous hurricane forecasted into the LA coast early Tuesday.

Current:


NOAA aircraft has been fixing Gustav this afternoon and confirmed what satellite suggest…that the hurricane continues to increase in organization and intensity. Last Vortex fix showed a pressure of 943mb at 16kts of wind…ie the dropsonde missed the center…since it was not calm…it is likely that Gustav is around 935mb to 938mb. The aircraft also reported the eye of the hurricane was moving onshore the Isle of Youth. Maximum flight level winds of 140kts (160mph) were recorded with a .90 reduction from flight level gives sustained 145mph winds at the surface. Eye feature is embedded within a deep cold CDO and is clearing out on the IR images…flight crew reported stadium effect…noted in very intense hurricanes.

Track:

12Z global model runs are starting to come in and continue to remain clustered at a SC to SW LA landfall. 12Z GFDL has shifted well west to the west side of Vermillion Bay while HWRF still shows a stall and loop back SW off the SW LA coast. 12Z GFS shows it into the SC LA coast. It should be clearly understood that all the forecast models are showing Gustav greatly slowing and the potential for a W or WSW turn at or around landfall. This is due to the handling of the high pressure cell over the OH valley. How strong this high is and how much it ridges southward will determine not only the final landfall location, but also the track once inland and threat for excessive flooding rainfall.

A long review of the water vapor and current steering analysis shows a 400mb anticyclone over AL and MS shifting southward very slowly while the trough in the Gulf yesterday has fractured with a part heading NE through SC and the other part heading W through the northern Gulf. The western shift in the guidance may be these models picking up on this high and trying to figure out how to deal with that and Gustav. For now a general NW heading through the SE and into the central Gulf is still very likely…after 48 hours the track may begin to bend back toward the left some…how much will be determined by the high over AL and MS and more importantly by the deep layer ridging building down from the OH valley.

It should be noted that a small deviation in the forecast track could mean the landfall difference of 50-60 miles due to the coastal shape of the SC LA coast and the direction of incoming impact.

NOTE: I know people like to stare at the satellite loops…be warned…do not focus on the short term wobbles…intense hurricanes do not move in straight lines, but instead move in a stair step pattern. Gustav will wobble off to the N and then the W and the overall 6 hour motion will be generally to the NW.


Intensity:

Well…we have all seen the capability today of rapid intensification and what ideal upper air conditions and high oceanic heat content can do. Pressure has fallen at least 42mb in the last 22 hours with Gustav going from a TS to cat 4 (70mph to 145mph). There is nothing except the small landmass of western Cuba to stop the explosive deepening. Gustav may make a run at cat 5 intensity as suggested by the HWRF taking the system way down to 904mb before hitting west Cuba. NHC makes the storm a 160mph cat 5 after passing W Cuba. Once in the Gulf Gustav will transverse the warm loop current with deep water waters…once again high end cat 4 or 5 is possible and now predicted by NHC. As the hurricane moves north of 25N the oceanic heat content begins to drop off and models predict a SW shear…the degree of shear suggested seems overdone. It is very hard to maintain cat 4/5 hurricanes for a long period of time…so weakening into a strong cat 3 is the best course of action…although Gustav may reach the US Gulf coast as a 3 or 4. Once Gustav levels off the current intensification…eyewall replacement cycles will likely play a bigger role in intensity especially as it approaches the US coast.

It should be noted that Gustav will be a very large hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. TS force winds are forecast to extend outward 160miles to the NE of the center and 100 miles SW of the center while hurricane force winds are forecast to extend outward 60 miles NE of the center to 40 miles SW near or just before US landfall.

Such a large wind field coupled with the offshore topography along the LA coast is going to produce a very large storm surge.

SE TX Impacts:

Based on the current forecast track…all 34kt winds will remain east of our region. Will see increasing swell action as Gustav enters the Gulf with Gulf swells building into the 30-40 foot range as Gustav enters the central Gulf. These swells will impact the heart of the offshore oil production in the northern Gulf. Long period swells will arrive on the TX coast starting early Monday and build into the 5-8 foot range by Monday afternoon. Wave action will pile water on the beach fronts….however competing NW and N winds on the W side of the circulation may help to keep tides only about a 1 above normal. Will have to see how much wave action we get. Experience with big Gulf hurricanes even going well to our east and with N winds is that the wave run-up can still cause some tidal issues. A large hurricane in the Gulf usually results in a slight increase in tides even without wave action considered.

Extended portion and rainfall aspect is strongly tied to inland track and potential for Gustav to slow and meander over E TX around the middle to late part of next week. The remains could be anywhere from going back into the Gulf to around Dallas…and where they are it is going to rain a lot. Will continue to express concern over the potential flooding/excessive rainfall threat possibility after landfall…similar to Fay over S GA. TC’s moving at slow speeds can drop incredible amounts of rainfall…and this threat will be close watch over the coming days.

[jasons2k]

There are news reports (AP, etc.) that Gustav is a Cat. 5 already - this is likely a misinterpertation of "it WILL be" a Cat. 5 by someone over at FEMA.

The Sun Sentinel in Ft. lauderdale website has it as a Cat 5.

Every news outlet will now that the AP irresponsibly ran with it. Somebody at FEMA messed-up.

[Nexus]

http://www.wwltv.com/topstories/stories/wwl083008tpgustav.27a97049.html

FEMA says Gustav soon to be rated Category 5

02:40 PM CDT on Saturday, August 30, 2008

Jennifer Loven / Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The government's disaster relief chief says Hurricane Gustav is growing into a monster Category 5 storm.

The storm that hit Cuba Saturday could reach landfall along the Gulf Coast by early Tuesday.

Federal Emergency Management Agency chief David Paulison told reporters several times at a briefing Saturday that the storm was strengthening into a Category 5 hurricane.

FEMA officials said Bill Read, the director of the National Hurricane Center, interrupted an afternoon teleconference involving the agency, Gulf Coast states and the National Weather Service to say he is going to issue a special advisory statement raising Gustav to Category 5. That means winds greater than 155 mph and a storm surge greater than 18 feet above normal.

Word about the Category 5 development reached FEMA shortly before Paulison briefed reporters

This seems pretty legit, but lets see if it verifies. The story reached the wires 8 minutes ago.

[fci]

On WWLtv.com they are reporting that Gus is now a Cat 5, is this true?

No

E-mail alert that I received at 3:26 PM:

Breaking News from ABCNEWS.com:

FEMA CHIEF: GUSTAV BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 STORM, THE STRONGEST TYPE OF HURRICANE

[BigB0882]

I am also guessing that all the reports of Cat 5 are simply misinterpretation of the fact that it is headed to Cat 5. That rumor is running rampant, I've heard it from a lot of people that until this morning were not even following the storm.

Beaumont has a mandatory evacuation, southerngal? I can't blame them even if it may seem just a bit premature, the taste of Rita is still in everyone's mouth! I think it is sad that Beaumont is evacuation (if true) before New Orleans. I mean sad in that New Orleans is waiting too long, just to clarify.

[6SpeedTA95]

I can't figure out why so many people are evacuating west out of NOLA, they have to traverse almost the entire landfall cone to reach a safe place.

It's about getting inland and above the surge path. NO is very low moving west can get you to higher ground.

The entire area from Houston to NOLA (and beyond) is coastal plain. There is no high ground, just some here and there that's a bit higher.

A whole lot of it is higher than much of NO.

[Regit]

On WWLtv.com they are reporting that Gus is now a Cat 5, is this true?

No

E-mail alert that I received at 3:26 PM:

Breaking News from ABCNEWS.com:

FEMA CHIEF: GUSTAV BECOMES A CATEGORY 5 STORM, THE STRONGEST TYPE OF HURRICANE

abcnews.com front page says that FEMA says it will soon be a Cat 5.

[superfly]

A bit of a head scratcher if they did upgrade to cat 5 since there's no evidence from recon yet to indicate anything near a cat 5.