ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[Philly12]

I think everyone here understands the beyond 3 days the models are still a bit of a crap shoot. That's why we have the cone.

[Trader Ron]

The HWRF and GFDL have Hanna quite a distance off the coast of Florida in 5 day's.

[Bocadude85]

The HWRF and GFDL have Hanna quite a distance off the coast of Florida in 5 day's.

Yea but look at their intensity forecast.. a weaker strom wouldnt be as influenced by the weakness... not to mention it all comes down to how long Hanna stalls in the Bahamas.. and no I do not want Hanna here!

[gatorcane]

the intensity forecast is largely up in the air at this point. NHC mentions in their discussion that they are below the model guidance that nearly all take Hanna to at least a CAT 1 hurricane. Hanna could be a sheared mess or much more.

Depending up the upper-level winds, SSTs are very warm ahead of Hanna especially around the Bahamas flats and Gulf stream so intensification is possible as shown by model consensus.

[Bocadude85]

Gator shouldnt the new EURO be out in the next few mins?

[gatorcane]

Gator shouldnt the new EURO be out in the next few mins?

I think it should be rolling now -- haven't checked it yet though.

[Philly12]

12Z Euro is more east with a skirting of the east coast of FL.

[ericinmia]

New Euro swipes south florida, and makes landfall up on the coast near Cape Canaveral...

[Bocadude85]

as they say the best place to be is at the 5 day landfall point because you know it will change

[fci]

An absolutely incredible switch in models from missing South Florida to the south getting close to Cuba to missing to the North headed parellel to the coast up towards the Carolinas.

The models are very conflicted and confused.

[Bocadude85]

An absolutely incredible switch in models from missing South Florida to the south getting close to Cuba to missing to the North headed parellel to the coast up towards the Carolinas.

The models are very conflicted and confused.

yea they have been flip flopping all over the place I guess I cant call it a trend considering it has only been one run.. guess we just wont know whats going on until probably tuesday

[Scorpion]

The Euro also takes a very intense hurricane after that over South Florida. The Euro was great with Gustav 10 days out.

[fci]

The Euro also takes a very intense hurricane after that over South Florida. The Euro was great with Gustav 10 days out.

Are you referring to what is now 97L?

[gatorcane]

An absolutely incredible switch in models from missing South Florida to the south getting close to Cuba to missing to the North headed parellel to the coast up towards the Carolinas.

The models are very conflicted and confused.

Well its just a sit back and see what happens situation --- if (I think its a somewhat large "IF") its going to miss South Florida, I think it will do so by deflecting to the north into some kind of weakness.

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't by the models... yet. I will when I see some consistency.

[Blown Away]

New Euro swipes south florida, and makes landfall up on the coast near Cape Canaveral...

Where does Hanna go after the Cape?

[Bocadude85]

I don't by the models... yet. I will when I see some consistency.

couldnt agree more we wont know whats really going to hapen until it happens could be one of those situations where even a small delay in the nw turn brings her ashore.

[fci]

An absolutely incredible switch in models from missing South Florida to the south getting close to Cuba to missing to the North headed parellel to the coast up towards the Carolinas.

The models are very conflicted and confused.

Well its just a sit back and see what happens situation --- if (I think its a somewhat large "IF") its going to miss South Florida, I think it will do so by deflecting to the north into some kind of weakness.

Climatologically a deflection North or Northeast makes the most sense.

But, what about that strong ridge that was going to shunt Hanna to the S or SW?
North shear of 35 to 40?

Now, it seems like the models make like the ridge will not block it.
What happened to all the Betsy references?

Unbelieveable inconsistency.

[gatorcane]

FCI well maybe the models will go back to seeing a strong ridge who knows?

I can tell you I had a big problem with the way the cone was yesterday with such a a SW dive. I think a WSW dive or even a SW can happen but for a short-time.

Even so the cone never made it past Cuba anyway and the NHC forecast point was well NE of Cuba. If the NHC had a 6+ day cone yesterday some kind of west bend or WNW bend would likely have been shown....

[Trader Ron]

There seems to be a hint of an Eastward shift. GFDL and HWRF are both East of Florida in 5 day's.