ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[green eyed girl]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html

There is your steering currents...BTW, that hasn't really changed in the last 6-10 hours....

High is slowly moving East

Not much...I went back to 00z last night and the eastern progression was not that much of a difference.... Oh, the ridge over the bahamas has not built back W or NW that quickly either...

Can you tell me how this will affect the course of the storm? I'm really worried about storm surge in Slidell.

[Nederlander]

Gus is tracking N-NW and has been since 5 am this morning. Some of the models were hinting at this movement (actually CMC had taken it about 50 miles offshore of Tampa on yesterdays run before turning it NW). Probably the rapid intensification and forward speed caught some of the models a little "flat-footed" by not anticipating this movement. This isn't a wobble folks - just have to see how long it takes this course before turning more NW - may be a little heavier weather for SW FL if this track keeps up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

track isnt that far off the forecast, and as the High moves east, a more NW track will happen.. but you are right, it all depends on when thats going to happen... i forsee other 'wobbles' to the west and east several more times before landfall, so i wouldnt concentrate too much on the wobbles

[BigB0882]

I hate to say this ... but I hope the lack of traffic in Baton Rouge -- and I mean its light -- is a sign of people being really prepared and having already left. I worry it isn't.

Must say, it surprised me too. I ran out to try to grab a car charger for my phone and the gas stations didn't look as bad as they did. I hope that everyone got what they needed before. As far as the traffic on the interstate, I think it is a bad sign. I don't think everyone has begun leaving yet, I expect it to be packed tight tomorrow.

[KWT]

rockyman, 3hr motion does look close to NNW however looking at the Sat.loops however I think we are about to see a bit of correction to that with a WNW wobble it seems.

Dmax and loop current really does suggest cat-5 IMO...

[Nexus]

The sun illuminating the eastern eyewall is pretty interesting:

[Just Joshing You]

What is the current motion? Looks to be traveling 333 for the last 1:20 but I may be wrong. also looks like it has kind of sped up.

[Scorpion]

The floor will bottom out tonight IMO.

[magwitch]

There are a lot of strange and fascinating effects happening on the periphery of Gustav that I don't think I've seen before. Could someone chime in and educate me as to what they are? Here's a visual shot link:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

1) There are random spikes of convection as far north as the gulf off Tampa. What causes those? Are they giving strength to Gustav?
2) Massive fans of what appear to be cirrus clouds are blowing off the edges of his feeder bands. That's most visible to the northwest. What causes that?

Thanks a lot for helping educate me.

[StJoe]

Gus is tracking N-NW and has been since 5 am this morning. Some of the models were hinting at this movement (actually CMC had taken it about 50 miles offshore of Tampa on yesterdays run before turning it NW). Probably the rapid intensification and forward speed caught some of the models a little "flat-footed" by not anticipating this movement. This isn't a wobble folks - just have to see how long it takes this course before turning more NW - may be a little heavier weather for SW FL if this track keeps up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

You know, there are times to agree when people say...oh, its just a wobble...not for nothing, this ain't no wobble to me!!! Gustav has moved east of the forecast points, and is now heading in a NNW

[Ivanhater]

Gus is tracking N-NW and has been since 5 am this morning. Some of the models were hinting at this movement (actually CMC had taken it about 50 miles offshore of Tampa on yesterdays run before turning it NW). Probably the rapid intensification and forward speed caught some of the models a little "flat-footed" by not anticipating this movement. This isn't a wobble folks - just have to see how long it takes this course before turning more NW - may be a little heavier weather for SW FL if this track keeps up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

Yep, this stopped being a wobble long time ago which is why the forecast points have to be pushed east..it better get back on track

[TampaFl]

Question: Why is Gustav "streched - elongated" north-south? It is not circular like it was earlier today. Is this due to the sterring flow, trough in the GOM, or the weakness?

[Sihara]

Getting bands of rain through Tampa. Local Mets (abc news) said we wouldnt get bands just a rain increase. So either Gustav is bigger than thought or closer than they thought for effects on TB area.

Unless I'm misreading it, the Ruskin Office of NWS doesn't agree. And the rains today sure seemed like bands. Here's an excerpt:

000
FXUS62 KTBW 301746
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
146 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...CONTINUING TO WATCH GUSTAV THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...STILL LOOKING LIKE THE MAIN IMPACTS
FROM HURRICANE GUSTAV ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE HEAVY
RAINS...HIGH SURF...RIP CURRENTS AND MARINE WIND IMPACTS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY MAJOR
CHANGES IN TRACK COULD SIGNIFICANTLY ADJUST THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

from: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... glossary=1

[Nederlander]

Gus is tracking N-NW and has been since 5 am this morning. Some of the models were hinting at this movement (actually CMC had taken it about 50 miles offshore of Tampa on yesterdays run before turning it NW). Probably the rapid intensification and forward speed caught some of the models a little "flat-footed" by not anticipating this movement. This isn't a wobble folks - just have to see how long it takes this course before turning more NW - may be a little heavier weather for SW FL if this track keeps up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

Yep, this stopped being a wobble long time ago which is why the forecast points have to be pushed east..it better get back on track

according to the coordinates, still on a NW movement... yes, slightly north of NW but NOT NNW

[KWT]

Amazing image Nexus, the inner core of convection is really amazing and the eye is pretty textbook, never tire of seeing these sorts of systems even though they cause such damage.

Recon shows this has been moving roughly NW in the last few hours, still tothe north of where it was forecasted to be however there is a wobble WNW recently.

[Sanibel]

Better hope that wobble wasn't an intensification wobble onshore.

If it continues slightly east of track perhaps Gus' strength is making it more sensitive to the weakness between the Highs?

[Dean4Storms]

Gus is tracking N-NW and has been since 5 am this morning. Some of the models were hinting at this movement (actually CMC had taken it about 50 miles offshore of Tampa on yesterdays run before turning it NW). Probably the rapid intensification and forward speed caught some of the models a little "flat-footed" by not anticipating this movement. This isn't a wobble folks - just have to see how long it takes this course before turning more NW - may be a little heavier weather for SW FL if this track keeps up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

Yep, this stopped being a wobble long time ago which is why the forecast points have to be pushed east..it better get back on track

It has been one big wobble all day, hey?

[Just Joshing You]

That picture that nexus posted shows the nice stadium effect.

[tolakram]

http://mycampage.com/keywestcam

Some great shots as we get near sunset, wind and cloud movement. As close as I'd ever want to be to one of these beasts.

[KWT]

TampaFl, yeah thats the outflow being taken up by the trough weakness I believe, Katrina got a little elongated as it started to get lifted up by that though this should happen quite so much this time with Gustav.

[ronjon]

Whether its moving at the strict definition of N-NW or not (certainly not NW which is 315 deg) - the track currently is about 50 miles east of what was projected this morning at 5 am by the NHC - this morning Gus was predicted to go well west of the Isle of Youth not east of it. I'm not making any bold predictions here folks - just observations. That high will build in at some point to turn Gus more NW - but is it another 6 hrs or 12 hrs?