ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Gus is tracking N-NW and has been since 5 am this morning. Some of the models were hinting at this movement (actually CMC had taken it about 50 miles offshore of Tampa on yesterdays run before turning it NW). Probably the rapid intensification and forward speed caught some of the models a little "flat-footed" by not anticipating this movement. This isn't a wobble folks - just have to see how long it takes this course before turning more NW - may be a little heavier weather for SW FL if this track keeps up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

Yep, this stopped being a wobble long time ago which is why the forecast points have to be pushed east..it better get back on track

It has been one big wobble all day, hey?

Lol yeah..it would be one thing if it were wobbling east then west of the track which would average out but not yet..Ill be watching to see if it does

[peteywheatstraw]

Is Gustav being influenced by the upper level trough? Whats up with the NNW movement? Since the forward speed has picked up, I bet the storm hits EAST of New Orleans now.

[KWT]

I think the turn back is maybe starting now, the motion has been closer to WNW in the last 40 minutes or so, may just be a wobble but it looks like good motion.

also eye now over half onshore as well.

[Ivanhater]

I think the turn back is maybe starting now, the motion has been closer to WNW in the last 40 minutes or so, may just be a wobble but it looks like good motion.

also eye now over half onshore as well.

Wnw?? not even close

was this supposed to be moving this fast?

[BigB0882]

I think the turn back is maybe starting now, the motion has been closer to WNW in the last 40 minutes or so, may just be a wobble but it looks like good motion.

also eye now over half onshore as well.

I haven't seen that but would be interested to hear other opinions on this one.

[Just Joshing You]

I think the turn back is maybe starting now, the motion has been closer to WNW in the last 40 minutes or so, may just be a wobble but it looks like good motion.

also eye now over half onshore as well.

Wnw?? not even close

was this supposed to be moving this fast?

I'm still trying to figure out GRLevel3, but I measured 333/17 the past 1:20 minutes.

[deltadog03]

Thats the thing IH....This has speed up quite a bit....Its moving at what 15mph?? I think thats gonna catch up with model spreads...

[Dean4Storms]

From 11:00am.......

INITIAL 30/1500Z 21.2N 82.1W 110 KT
12HR VT 31/0000Z 22.5N 83.5W 105 KT...OVER WESTERN CUBA
24HR VT 31/1200Z 24.3N 85.4W 115 KT
36HR VT 01/0000Z 26.0N 87.3W 120 KT
48HR VT 01/1200Z 27.8N 89.2W 110 KT
72HR VT 02/1200Z 30.5N 92.5W 65 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 03/1200Z 31.5N 94.0W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 04/1200Z 32.0N 95.5W 30 KT...INLAND


Look at the 12hr forecasted position and then go look at a map with Lat/Lon. then tell me it isn't running a tad east of the forecasts and over time this could become a problem if it continues!

[jhpigott]

TWC just reported an unofficial sustained wind measurement on the Isle of Youth of 140mph . . . anybody else heard that??

and the Isle of Youth was in the eastern half of the eyewall

[KWT]

Well its not as northerly as it was about 2hrs ago Ivanhater, if you look at the high resolution imagery you will see what I mean.

[tolakram]

This is what bothers me. Note landfall location in both tracks vs where they thought it would head.





This was a change to the short term track but very little change to the landfall location. Since then Gustav has been close to dead on every point. I don't know if it means anything since the models are continuing to group around the same location, but this was NOT a wobble.

So you tell me that kind of track adjustment can't happen when this gets close to the gulf shore.

here's the link to the graphics archive:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_3W.shtml

[Nexus]

Pressure still dropping in Havanna. Wish I could find a station closer to the path that is reliable, anyone?

[BigB0882]

Does anyone else here have a problem with the projected path that is shown on the weather channel? For some reason it seems misleading to me. I see their projected path and it just seems like it is much more west than when I look at the NHC projected path. I am wondering if it is because of how they graph the path. It makes any curves look much more pronounced, IMO. I'm not saying it is wrong, but that it seems to play tricks with my eyes, at least.

[Just Joshing You]

I think I was measuring wrong.. looks a bit closer to 320. I did the math on converting NM to M and then M to KT, but it is moving at like 17 mph i believe.

[Ivanhater]

Thats the thing IH....This has speed up quite a bit....Its moving at what 15mph?? I think thats gonna catch up with model spreads...

He's flying!

[KWT]

Its still running to the east of the track indeed, current imagery suggests the NHC are both too slow and also about 30 miles too far west even with a wobble back.

The track does look like its going to have to be adjusted eastwards a touch, esp if this continues.

[THead]

Amazing image Nexus, the inner core of convection is really amazing and the eye is pretty textbook, never tire of seeing these sorts of systems even though they cause such damage.

Recon shows this has been moving roughly NW in the last few hours, still tothe north of where it was forecasted to be however there is a wobble WNW recently.

Yes, great image. Some of the most amazing images for me, are the visibles, when the sun is at a low angle. You can really see the texture, with the shadows. Scary beautiful...

[TampaFl]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm5.html

There is your steering currents...BTW, that hasn't really changed in the last 6-10 hours....

Deltadog03 could this be what is "streching" Gustav north/south on the sat. pictures & could this possibly steer Gustav more to thr East Central Gulf?

[deltadog03]

KWT, what does NHC have this moving at until lanfall...Looks about the same heading all the way in...

[BigB0882]

Thats the thing IH....This has speed up quite a bit....Its moving at what 15mph?? I think thats gonna catch up with model spreads...

He's flying!

Would this mean a potential East shift of the track, if not at landfall but inland? If it continues being ahead of schedule couldn't it get further into land before the H pushes it more westerly?