ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Nederlander]

Does anyone else here have a problem with the projected path that is shown on the weather channel? For some reason it seems misleading to me. I see their projected path and it just seems like it is much more west than when I look at the NHC projected path. I am wondering if it is because of how they graph the path. It makes any curves look much more pronounced, IMO. I'm not saying it is wrong, but that it seems to play tricks with my eyes, at least.

TWC bases their projected path off of NHC... or at least thats the impression i was under...

[green eyed girl]

Thats the thing IH....This has speed up quite a bit....Its moving at what 15mph?? I think thats gonna catch up with model spreads...

In what way? Do you think it will move farther west or east?

[KWT]

Yeah I think that as well Deltadog, the thing is with it being around 40 miles NE of where it should be, that would suggest major problems for N.O...stormcenter accused me of the doomsday but in this case 30 miles to the east means N.O could well be close if not in the NE eyewall.

Also the only good thing about the speed up is less time over the loop current...also may mean less time to weaken if it can hold this speed...

[O Town]

[GoneBabyGone]

I'm located in Baton Rouge (LSU). Not a hurricane expert by any means. What's it looking like for me? Should I get the hell out of dodge? Or should I be pretty safe here?

[BigB0882]

Does anyone else here have a problem with the projected path that is shown on the weather channel? For some reason it seems misleading to me. I see their projected path and it just seems like it is much more west than when I look at the NHC projected path. I am wondering if it is because of how they graph the path. It makes any curves look much more pronounced, IMO. I'm not saying it is wrong, but that it seems to play tricks with my eyes, at least.

TWC bases their projected path off of NHC... or at least thats the impression i was under...

Oh, I am aware of that. But I am just saying it doesn't LOOK the same. They each use such different graphics to try to tell the same story and it doesn't work, for me. I'm not saying which is better but I just always have a hard time believing they are the same projections even though I know they are.

[THead]

Thats the thing IH....This has speed up quite a bit....Its moving at what 15mph?? I think thats gonna catch up with model spreads...

He's flying!

I was trying to point this out earlier, how the landfall time has kept creeping sooner and sooner the last couple of days, and especially thru today as Gustav trucks right along. NHC track now shows landfall at 2 PM Monday. I hope everyone is well into their FINAL preperations!!

[tolakram]

[KWT]

Eye now totally overshore and clouding up, but I think its going to renter the gulf pretty soon, also seems at least ot have slowed back down a touch just recently but that maybe because the eye is filling and all an illusion.

montion is about true NW now it seems.

[storms in NC]

WOW a cat 4 What is there to say.
It seem that the models have had gus going the same from the start. Not that much change as in landfall. I will not be going down there this time. My friends died not long after katrina. The farm is sitll there and the son is in Wa. So unless he calls and ask me for help I will pass this time around. I do wish everyone the best in his path. I know how bad it was last time.

[HURAKAN]

[Thunder44]

TWC just reported an unofficial sustained wind measurement on the Isle of Youth of 140mph . . . anybody else heard that??

and the Isle of Youth was in the eastern half of the eyewall

That report was in the 2pm Special Advisory today.

[tolakram]

[GoneBabyGone]

I'm located in Baton Rouge (LSU). Not a hurricane expert by any means. What's it looking like for me? Should I get the hell out of dodge? Or should I be pretty safe here?

[KWT]

Hurakan, what an amazing hurricane, to think it must be cuasing some much suffering over West Cuba right now as the eye moves further towards the coast steadily.

I've got a sneaky feeling any strength lost over Cuba will be made up in 3-5hrs then it can push on from there towards cat-5.

[cheezyWXguy]

Eye now totally overshore and clouding up, but I think its going to renter the gulf pretty soon, also seems at least ot have slowed back down a touch just recently but that maybe because the eye is filling and all an illusion.

montion is about true NW now it seems.

It is probably feeling the effects of land right now, which is why there is no longer a full ring of red around the eye, as well as the eye being clouded over. Personally I think it most it will lose 5mph, maybe no weakening at all. But nonetheless, tomorrow a couple hours after reemergence, another strengthening trend appears likely and I think this will peak higher than the forecast 160mph.

Btw...doesnt 942 seem to be a little high for 150mph hurricane? I would have assumed normal is about 930mb.

[Nederlander]

For everyone posting about "should I leave" or "how will I get affected", please listen to your local authorities. They will let you know what preparations and or evacuations are in order.

[Sanibel]

and the Isle of Youth was in the eastern half of the eyewall

"western" half.

Heavy rain just brought 25+mph winds to the surface here.

[GoneBabyGone]

Sadly enough, Baton Rouge local authorities haven't said much. Everyone is so focused on New Orleans that those of us further inland are kind of forgotten.

[CrazyC83]

Eye now totally overshore and clouding up, but I think its going to renter the gulf pretty soon, also seems at least ot have slowed back down a touch just recently but that maybe because the eye is filling and all an illusion.

montion is about true NW now it seems.

It is probably feeling the effects of land right now, which is why there is no longer a full ring of red around the eye, as well as the eye being clouded over. Personally I think it most it will lose 5mph, maybe no weakening at all. But nonetheless, tomorrow a couple hours after reemergence, another strengthening trend appears likely and I think this will peak higher than the forecast 160mph.

Btw...doesnt 942 seem to be a little high for 150mph hurricane? I would have assumed normal is about 930mb.

It is a bit high, but rapidly deepening hurricanes with larger eyes usually have higher pressures than normal for that intensity.