ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[Bocadude85]

looks to be heading to the carolinas at hr 102

[jlauderdal]

Still stalling in the Bahamas at 96 hours, but I spy with my unprofessional eyes that the ridge is building back in to the north:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml

yep, thats why i posted a stall does us no good here, the ridge always builds back in at some point and this time of year its sooner rather than later, lets see if we can get some model consistency tomorrow or monday and figure this thing out

[Evil Jeremy]

Still stalling in the Bahamas at 96 hours, but I spy with my unprofessional eyes that the ridge is building back in to the north:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml

You must have young kids w/ the "I spy".

Or maybe I am a young kid. Actually, I am a teen with the muturaty level of a 10 year old lol.

Drifting north with the ridge building back in: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml

[chadtm80]

Models in full agreement

[Bocadude85]

18z GFS landfall NC and Virginia lol the GFS is different EVERYTIME Im not sure we should put much faith into the models beyond 3 days.

[Evil Jeremy]

18z GFS landfall NC and Virginia lol the GFS is different EVERYTIME Im not sure we should put much faith into the models beyond 3 days.

I would not put any trust in the models beyond 3 days at this point. THey are all diffrent run after run.

[captain east]

Do you think SE FL / Broward is out of the picture now?

[jlauderdal]

Do you think SE FL / Broward is out of the picture now?

no

[fci]

Do you think SE FL / Broward is out of the picture now?

Absolutely not.

Right now I would say that Puerto Rico, The Virgin Islands and South America are out of the picture.

[Blown Away]

Do you think SE FL / Broward is out of the picture now?

I think the models are underestimating the ridge I think Hanna ultimately will end up going S of the current track. IMO, Extreme SE FL or Keys.

[Evil Jeremy]

Do you think SE FL / Broward is out of the picture now?

No. In a week we will know if Hanna hit us. The only people who can breathe are the people in Asia.

[jlauderdal]

Do you think SE FL / Broward is out of the picture now?

I think the models are underestimating the ridge I think Hanna ultimately will end up going S of the current track. IMO, Extreme SE FL or Keys.

any shutter activity over at normans compound

[jinftl]

What piece of data or news made you ask....just curious. Not aware of any changes that have actually put south florida...or the whole east coast of florida...in a 'breathing easier' mode today.

At the most basic level, we are more 'in the cone' in all of south florida than we were yesterday. The NHC sees a risk.

Do you think SE FL / Broward is out of the picture now?

[storms in NC]

It is all going to be about timing. The ridge will break down and build back up as these fronts come though. So it come down to timing and where she is at the time. If she get caught between then yes up the east coast

Told you to wait till Sunday or Monday for the models to get the stuff right. they only had the 3 day down not the long out look. You will see it change again. What storm was it that did that? They had it all over from Tx to the coast. it was a few years ago. And it turned out to be the frist run was right.

[tpr1967]

Has any one brought up the fact that this is looking more and more like a hybrid tropical system. Seems that the surface feature and upper level low have merged. and slowly moving
west or west southwest. Your thoughts. Thats why the models want to strenghten this system in the central bahamas.Even thought they are forecasting 40 knts of wind shear.
If it was a hybrid type system it might use that 40 knot jet from the north to strenghten the system.

[Blown Away]

It is all going to be about timing. The ridge will break down and build back up as these fronts come though. So it come down to timing and where she is at the time. If she get caught between then yes up the east coast

Told you to wait till Sunday or Monday for the models to get the stuff right. they only had the 3 day down not the long out look. You will see it change again. What storm was it that did that? They had it all over from Tx to the coast. it was a few years ago. And it turned out to be the frist run was right.

Ernesto

[Blown Away]

Convection building on the SW side for the first time, the ULL is losing it's effect on Hanna.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[captain east]

What piece of data or news made you ask....just curious. Not aware of any changes that have actually put south florida...or the whole east coast of florida...in a 'breathing easier' mode today.

At the most basic level, we are more 'in the cone' in all of south florida than we were yesterday. The NHC sees a risk.

Do you think SE FL / Broward is out of the picture now?

The models show a northern pattern and some of you were saying it could hit NC now. Nvm though I'll wait for tomorrow or Monday's models have to say.

[jlauderdal]

Has any one brought up the fact that this is looking more and more like a hybrid tropical system. Seems that the surface feature and upper level low have merged. and slowly moving
west or west southwest. Your thoughts. Thats why the models want to strenghten this system in the central bahamas.Even thought they are forecasting 40 knts of wind shear.
If it was a hybrid type system it might use that 40 knot jet from the north to strenghten the system.

actually the folks over at nhc brought it up in their 5pm disco, http://www.nhc.gov,


THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HANNA HAS CHANGED QUITE A BIT DURING THE DAY
TODAY. THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BECOME INVOLVED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW THAT WAS LOCATED TO ITS WEST...AND HANNA NOW HAS SOME
RESEMBLANCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL CYCLONE. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER IS
LOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BANDING OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE STILL YIELD INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0
OR 45 KT FROM BOTH AGENCIES.

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z GFDL stall in southern bahamas and then taks off NW in dir of SC