ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[MGC]

Well........Gustav should regain some intensity once he gets back over water. Might just wake up to another Cat-5, been there done that. Gustav will likely have an eyewall replacement with corresponing increase in radius of hurricane force winds. Sound familiar? If this does happen it will only increase the size and extent of the surge. We could be facing another catastrophic surge event in SE Louisiana. If Gustav makes landfall west of Grand Isle, the surge will be forced up Barataria Bay threating the Westbank of metro New Orleans. Hurricane Betsy put a 20 foot surge on the Eastbank of Plaquemines Parish back in 1965. Gustav will be approaching the Louisiana coast on a similar track. Thing are not looking good for the central Gulf coast. Not likeing that Gustav is tracking on the east side of the forecast envelope either. We have decided to stay unless Gustav's track and intensity warrent us to leave the coast. I am expecting tropical storm force winds at my place with gusts to hurricane force.......MGC

[Dean4Storms]

We have what appears to be an outer band forming coming in from the east here in Destin. Gustav has got a far reach!

[expat2carib]

http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b300/HURAKAN5/GUS/GUS-RECON-92.jpg

Same position almost as your avatar. Which one was that?

[PTPatrick]

Did your place get surge in Katrina MGC?

[jinftl]

wow....now that is a situation where a wobble left or right mattered for the residents of Guasimal

http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b300/HURAKAN5/GUS/GUS-RECON-92.jpg

[Stormcenter]

Well yeah the threat is probably greater to the west of N.O.

The thing is this is a pretty large hurricane so those even a little away from the center will likely get hurricane force gusts I feel.

E X A C T L Y !

[BigB0882]

Issuing required monthly tests for the Emergency Alert System. Feels different than all the other times!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Another feederband moved through, with wind, lightning, and heavy rain.
Gusts to about 40 mph. I am over 300 miles north of the center. This thing
is huge.

The winds have relaxed since, but are around 20-25 mph in gusts still.

[Scorpion]

Unofficial 211 mph gust per Cuban TV(probably bogus though)

[HarlequinBoy]

Most of my family members are going to start evacuating tomorrow around six. I know of only one on the MGC that is leaving though. But around ten from New Orleans and points west are.

Nearly half my family lives down there.

[Just Joshing You]

Unofficial 211 mph gust per Cuban TV(probably bogus though)

I'd hope so, because that would be one of the highest gusts of wind from a Cat 4 storm I've ever seen of or heard.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Local News station reported tropical storm force winds now spreading
over the FL Straits- 54 mph winds in the Keys.

Once this moves into the Gulf the wind field will likely expand even more,
just like with Katrina's expanding wind field.

[KWT]

Yeah 211mph probably is a bad report...

I've heard that the NHC have said to the officals this could be worse in terms of flooding than Katrina and its as bad as it gets for N.O...

[Mattie]

I'm located in Baton Rouge (LSU). Not a hurricane expert by any means. What's it looking like for me? Should I get the hell out of dodge? Or should I be pretty safe here?

you are far enough northeast that you shouldnt sustain heavy damage. It will be plenty windy though.
Myself, not so lucky. possibly 90-100 mph winds here in Lafayette I reckon. We are ready for it though.

I know that it is recommended that you listen to you local weather, however - take into consideration about WHERE you are - are you in a heavily treed area, or you in a second floor apartment, are you near a canal or body of water. My family is in Denham Springs and is staying - but none of those scenarios apply to them. They also have generators, and have made great efforts to be prepared. That doesn't say that their roof won't be blown off, or something catastrophic could happen, but they are prepared and willing to take the risk. We stayed in Denham Springs for Betsy - which is comparable to what may be expected with Gustov - and it was not a fun night. I wasn't sure that our walls would be standing in the morning. There was no electricity for about a week and it was just difficult to make it back then. No modern conveniences short of a hurricane lantern, flashlight, battery operated radio and lots of pork and beans.

Be safe, but make a safe and comfort decision. Are you going to be happy living without all of the conveniences for a week? Staying through the storm may be fine, but afterward, it sucks for sure.

[MisUndrstd]

I don't know Scorpion, it is possible. During Georges back in '98 (he was a Cat 2). Keesler AFB in Biloxi recorded a wind gust of 175 mph. So seeing as Gustav is a Cat 4, I think a gust of 211 mph is possible.

[KWT]

Yep TBH I think once this reaches the loop current we shall see this peak out, wouldn't be at all surprised if by 18z we have a cat-5 but we shall see what happens.

Can't believe this could be happening yet again...

[Just Joshing You]

Yeah 211mph probably is a bad report...

I've heard that the NHC have said to the officals this could be worse in terms of flooding than Katrina and its as bad as it gets for N.O...

I've also heard something similar in that a slight deviation will be a worst case scenario for N.O, as it will not be going straight on and will push more surge from the NE quadrant.

[Just Joshing You]

Please note that the eye and surrounding convection is still very strong even though it has made landfall and is well over land.

[HarlequinBoy]

You are not in a storm surge zone, so you will probably be ok......but if you live in a structure like a mobile home, or your area is prone to flooding from excessive rain, or anything like that....go!

Gusts 75 mph or so will knock power out and knock down trees, but shouldn't do real structural damage. Obviously that changes if your expected winds go up.

In reality, evacuate only if you have to....and that is your call...by all means err on the side of caution and peace of mind....but it is even a bigger mess when those who don't need to leave tie up the roads for those who really do need to evacuate and will be coming inland from the coast.

I'm located in Baton Rouge (LSU). Not a hurricane expert by any means. What's it looking like for me? Should I get the hell out of dodge? Or should I be pretty safe here?

You probably shouldn't leave, but do prepare well! I think I read 24 people died around Hattiesburg during Katrina, and Hattiesburg is several counties inland.

[Garnetcat5]

Should I expect any impact from this in sw houston? no one seems to concerned...I'm a little confused....