ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

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KWT
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#7321 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:17 pm

Yep very low pressure, 935mbs, seems like it was deepening right upto landfall then, center now over water so we shall see how much weakening we see.
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Re: Re:

#7322 Postby jinftl » Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:19 pm

That should be sufficient....realistically, you won't need to get under the mattress even with Cat 1 gusts.

If you start talking winds gusting to 100 mph or more, than windows can blow and even some roofs can start to fail....that is when the mattress would be vital.

Biggest thing you can probably do to prepare....plan to be without power for several days. That will probably the biggest impact you would experience being that far inland.

BigB0882 wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:If you are far enough inland 50 miles or better and decide to stay you better build yourself a safe room in an interior room or hallway using mattresses and pillows during the height of the storm.


This is my plan. I am going to be dragging the mattress into the guest bathroom which is located in the center of the house. If things get sketchy then I will jump in there and ride it out.
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Re: Re:

#7323 Postby Pigsnibble » Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:19 pm

opera ghost wrote:
Garnetcat5 wrote:Should I expect any impact from this in sw houston? no one seems to concerned...I'm a little confused....



Keep an eye on the storm. If it keeps on it's forcasted track we shouldn't have much to show for it. If it deviates west (and it can, as evidenced by the cone but is certainly not guaranteed) then we might see something. Keep your eye on local stations and follow any advice they give (right now, as an example, I'm staying put since I'm in Houston proper). Basically, wait and see. Deviations can occur- but are not certain to (or necessarily likely to) regardless, however, keep your eye on it until we are safely out of the cone.


Some models are hinting at Gustav going stationary and SW back into the GOM.....watch this critter closely TX
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Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea

#7324 Postby amawea » Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:21 pm

I would not put 211 mph gust out of the question. I was stationed on Guam when typhoon Pamela went through with 150 mph winds and there was recorded gust to 210 mph. :eek:
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Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea

#7325 Postby BigB0882 » Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:22 pm

soonertwister wrote:Here's the point forecast for Baton Rouge starting at midnight Monday morning. It's not updated for the latest NHC forecast, but it's a clue of what things might be.

It shows sustained winds above 60 mph for several hours, peaking at 66 with gusts up to 85. Like I said, the timing is wrong. And it wouldn't take much of right movement in the track for things to be one heck of a lot worse. The NHC is predicting 80 mph winds for Gustav 24 hours after landfall...

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... lix&unit=0


Never seen that, thanks! Certainly looking rough but liveable for BR. 24 hours of winds at 30 our greater and about 9 of those with 60 sustained.
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Re:

#7326 Postby SoupBone » Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:22 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:If you are far enough inland 50 miles or better and decide to stay you better build yourself a safe room in an interior room or hallway using mattresses and pillows during the height of the storm.



You guys are starting to make me think staying in even Baton Rouge is a bad idea. Man I just don't know anymore. I have family from Terrebonne that came here to be safer but if it's unsafe I might tell them to leave and go up to a house east of Alexandria. Decisions decisions....anyone want to weight in?
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Re: Re:

#7327 Postby jinftl » Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:22 pm

Is your area covered by the hurricane watch? If so, plan accordingly....a watch is not issued aimlessly. Even if you are not in a watch area, keep an eye on potential changes to that later or tomorrow if the forecast shifts west.

opera ghost wrote:
Garnetcat5 wrote:Should I expect any impact from this in sw houston? no one seems to concerned...I'm a little confused....



Keep an eye on the storm. If it keeps on it's forcasted track we shouldn't have much to show for it. If it deviates west (and it can, as evidenced by the cone but is certainly not guaranteed) then we might see something. Keep your eye on local stations and follow any advice they give (right now, as an example, I'm staying put since I'm in Houston proper). Basically, wait and see. Deviations can occur- but are not certain to (or necessarily likely to) regardless, however, keep your eye on it until we are safely out of the cone.
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Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea

#7328 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:24 pm

Dont forget inland flooding, especially if this bugger is slow moving. I have been flooded by 2 storms far from the center in training feeder bands when I lived in Florida. Areas like Baton rouge do NOT drain well and if you live in one of those areas I would at least consider moving the cars as high as possible. I did that in Katrina and even though my street flash flooded my car was on high ground in field up the street.
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#7329 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:24 pm

Salto de Soroa, Cuba. Eyewall passing over it.

Image

Image
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Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea

#7330 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:24 pm

amawea wrote:I would not put 211 mph gust out of the question. I was stationed on Guam when typhoon Pamela went through with 150 mph winds and there was recorded gust to 210 mph. :eek:


In other words, same damage in that swath as an EF5 tornado...
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Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea

#7331 Postby Iune » Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:24 pm

amawea wrote:I would not put 211 mph gust out of the question. I was stationed on Guam when typhoon Pamela went through with 150 mph winds and there was recorded gust to 210 mph. :eek:

Was that in the 70's or 80's?
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Re: Re:

#7332 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:25 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:If you are far enough inland 50 miles or better and decide to stay you better build yourself a safe room in an interior room or hallway using mattresses and pillows during the height of the storm.



You guys are starting to make me think staying in even Baton Rouge is a bad idea. Man I just don't know anymore. I have family from Terrebonne that came here to be safer but if it's unsafe I might tell them to leave and go up to a house east of Alexandria. Decisions decisions....anyone want to weight in?


Even up in Alexandria hurricane force gusts (at least) are possible with a landfall near Grand Isle.
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#7333 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:25 pm

Last vis imagery of the day now, still looking good, now onto tracking through IR, should see only very slow weakening over the next couple of hours whilst overland, then we shall see what happens when this reaches the gulf...I think may take a few hours to clear the muck out of the eye but then the RI will start all over again with the Loop current.
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Re: Re:

#7334 Postby GoneBabyGone » Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:26 pm

SoupBone wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:If you are far enough inland 50 miles or better and decide to stay you better build yourself a safe room in an interior room or hallway using mattresses and pillows during the height of the storm.



You guys are starting to make me think staying in even Baton Rouge is a bad idea. Man I just don't know anymore. I have family from Terrebonne that came here to be safer but if it's unsafe I might tell them to leave and go up to a house east of Alexandria. Decisions decisions....anyone want to weight in?


My biggest concern is if it follows the green lines. They appear to go right through BR.

Image

I'm a bit concerned being on LSUs campus. I'm right near University Lake (at the corner of E Campus and S Campus).

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&g ... iwloc=addr
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Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea

#7335 Postby mathwhizz » Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:26 pm

Is it just me or is Gustov going east of track?

If I were in New Orleans, I would be getting the hell out of dodge ASAP.
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#7336 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:26 pm

The city of San Cristobal - population 75,000 - is currently getting the NE eyewall.
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Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea

#7337 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:27 pm

I dont know what it is PS, but everytime you post, it is really slow to load
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Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea

#7338 Postby amawea » Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:28 pm

Phoenix's Song wrote:
amawea wrote:I would not put 211 mph gust out of the question. I was stationed on Guam when typhoon Pamela went through with 150 mph winds and there was recorded gust to 210 mph. :eek:

Was that in the 70's or 80's?


That was ib 1976, it literally stripped the grass off the ground in places.
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Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea

#7339 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:29 pm

Ivanhater wrote:I dont know what it is PS, but everytime you post, it is really slow to load


Because in main threads like this one,the members post at the same time.I haved been thru the same many times.
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Re: Cat. 4 Hurricane Gustav in NW Caribbean Sea

#7340 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Aug 30, 2008 6:29 pm

mathwhizz wrote:Is it just me or is Gustov going east of track?

If I were in New Orleans, I would be getting the hell out of dodge ASAP.



Oh my another N.O. is doomed post!!!!!!!!!
Folks I think everyone is well awhere of the
situation and the implications "should" it happen (again!).
I don't think we need to be reminded every other post
about it.
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