ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[jinftl]

Unless you are in a structure that can not withstand even minimal hurricane winds or in a very flood prone area, you will be fine. You will see trees down and power outages but not anything you can't withstand.

If you are far enough inland 50 miles or better and decide to stay you better build yourself a safe room in an interior room or hallway using mattresses and pillows during the height of the storm.

You guys are starting to make me think staying in even Baton Rouge is a bad idea. Man I just don't know anymore. I have family from Terrebonne that came here to be safer but if it's unsafe I might tell them to leave and go up to a house east of Alexandria. Decisions decisions....anyone want to weight in?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I would not put 211 mph gust out of the question. I was stationed on Guam when typhoon Pamela went through with 150 mph winds and there was recorded gust to 210 mph.

Was that in the 70's or 80's?

Pamela made landfall in Guam in 1976 with winds of 140mph (Cat. 4). I am not sure how accurate that 210mph gust is though. That seems a bit extreme for a storm that only had 140mph sustained winds at landfall. May be the wind gust report was associated with a waterspout or tornado? Who knows..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Typh ... oon_Pamela

[GoneBabyGone]

Is it just me or is Gustov going east of track?

If I were in New Orleans, I would be getting the hell out of dodge ASAP.

Oh my another N.O. is doomed post!!!!!!!!!
Folks I think everyone is well awhere of the
situation and the implications "should" it happen (again!).
I don't think we need to be reminded every other post
about it.

Someone sounds like they have disaster-envy. Chill out. People are scared.

[HURAKAN]

Gustav handling the crossing pretty well.

[CrazyC83]

There is a city (San Cristobal) underneath the eastern eyewall right now. It has 75,000 in its municipal boundaries, but Google Earth suggests about 20,000-30,000 in the actual community. I shudder to think about the damage there...

[6SpeedTA95]

Another 6 hours and this thing will probably begin strengthening yet again...heck probably more like 3 hours.

[amawea]

I would not put 211 mph gust out of the question. I was stationed on Guam when typhoon Pamela went through with 150 mph winds and there was recorded gust to 210 mph.

Was that in the 70's or 80's?

Pamela made landfall in Guam in 1976 with winds of 140mph (Cat. 4). I am not sure how accurate that 210mph gust is though. That seems a bit extreme for a storm that only had 140mph sustained winds at landfall. May be the wind gust report was associated with a waterspout or tornado? Who knows..

Here is the 1976 Typhoon Season page on Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Typhoon_Pamela

I haven't ever looked to see if they made any corrections to what they were putting out when it happened. I do know that the 150/ 210 gust is what was reported when I was there.

[wxman57]

Yeah 211mph probably is a bad report...

I've heard that the NHC have said to the officals this could be worse in terms of flooding than Katrina and its as bad as it gets for N.O...

Perhaps the TV report was 211kph, not mph? What's that 130 mph or so?

[Ivanhater]

Yeah 211mph probably is a bad report...

I've heard that the NHC have said to the officals this could be worse in terms of flooding than Katrina and its as bad as it gets for N.O...

Perhaps the TV report was 211kph, not mph? What's that 130 mph or so?

No the report was 340km/hr..have no idea if it was accurate mind you

[CrazyC83]

Bahia Honda - population 45,000 - about to get whacked by the eastern eyewall.

[bahamaswx]

I would not put 211 mph gust out of the question. I was stationed on Guam when typhoon Pamela went through with 150 mph winds and there was recorded gust to 210 mph.

Was that in the 70's or 80's?

Pamela made landfall in Guam in 1976 with winds of 140mph (Cat. 4). I am not sure how accurate that 210mph gust is though. That seems a bit extreme for a storm that only had 140mph sustained winds at landfall. May be the wind gust report was associated with a waterspout or tornado? Who knows..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Typh ... oon_Pamela

Since they use 10 minute wind averages, a 210mph gust is believable in a 150mph pacific storm.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like the new models are adjusting eastward with the movement today..GFS, UKMET, HWRF and GFDL now aiming around NO

[HURAKAN]

My family just spoke to my aunt and she says that everything is OK in her house but the sound of the rain and wind outside is horrible. We will try to talk to her again later on.

[JSDS]

For the Baton Rouge people who are concerned - if you are in a well built building in an area that does not flood, and are not under tons of trees, I wouldn't recommend leaving. I was in Baker for Betsy and in Denham Springs for Andrew, Katrina, and Rita and made it through ok. Yes, there were trees that came down (some on houses), extended power outages, and flooding, but we have downed trees, shorter power outages, and flooding several times a year from bad storms that move through. My daughter and son in law who live on Galveston Island evacuated to just south of Shreveport for Rita and still were in some pretty rough weather. I don't know that Alexandria would be enough better that the evacuation process would be worth it. Just my opinion, FWIW.

[opera ghost]

Is your area covered by the hurricane watch? If so, plan accordingly....a watch is not issued aimlessly. Even if you are not in a watch area, keep an eye on potential changes to that later or tomorrow if the forecast shifts west.

Should I expect any impact from this in sw houston? no one seems to concerned...I'm a little confused....

Keep an eye on the storm. If it keeps on it's forcasted track we shouldn't have much to show for it. If it deviates west (and it can, as evidenced by the cone but is certainly not guaranteed) then we might see something. Keep your eye on local stations and follow any advice they give (right now, as an example, I'm staying put since I'm in Houston proper). Basically, wait and see. Deviations can occur- but are not certain to (or necessarily likely to) regardless, however, keep your eye on it until we are safely out of the cone.

Neither one of us is in the hurricane watch area- although we're both in the cone... which is why I suggest monitoring the storm closely but not panicking. I've got containers to fill with water, non perishable food, and a safe place to ride out anything 3 and under- and a plan on how to get the heck out of dodge if this thing takes a swing towards the coast.

Anyone along the coast and especially in the cone should have their hurricane supplies current and a plan in case something goes wrong with the track. I restocked everything when Edouard was forecast to pass through!

[senorpepr]

Since they use 10 minute wind averages, a 210mph gust is believable in a 150mph pacific storm.

Actually, since Guam is a US territory, wouldn't they use 1-minute averages?

[Stephanie]

My family just spoke to my aunt and she says that everything is OK in her house but the sound of the rain and wind outside is horrible. We will try to talk to her again later on.

I really feel for the poor people in Cuba right now. Where is your family located?

I wonder how the Isle of Youth faired.

[mvtrucking]

If you are far enough inland 50 miles or better and decide to stay you better build yourself a safe room in an interior room or hallway using mattresses and pillows during the height of the storm.

You guys are starting to make me think staying in even Baton Rouge is a bad idea. Man I just don't know anymore. I have family from Terrebonne that came here to be safer but if it's unsafe I might tell them to leave and go up to a house east of Alexandria. Decisions decisions....anyone want to weight in?

Even up in Alexandria hurricane force gusts (at least) are possible with a landfall near Grand Isle.

Heck here in Monroe, we may get at least tropical force winds being on the east side and we are north of Alexandria.

[soonertwister]

Here's the point forecast for Baton Rouge starting at midnight Monday morning. It's not updated for the latest NHC forecast, but it's a clue of what things might be.

It shows sustained winds above 60 mph for several hours, peaking at 66 with gusts up to 85. Like I said, the timing is wrong. And it wouldn't take much of right movement in the track for things to be one heck of a lot worse. The NHC is predicting 80 mph winds for Gustav 24 hours after landfall...

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... lix&unit=0

Never seen that, thanks! Certainly looking rough but liveable for BR. 24 hours of winds at 30 our greater and about 9 of those with 60 sustained.

Please take note of my caution! It wouldn't take a path much to the right of forecast for things to be MUCH worse for Baton Rouge, including sustained winds well in excess of 100 mph. I do hope you will be prepared for that potential event, should it happen. Like I said, the forecast had not been updated for the most recent NHC data.

[tolakram]

Pushed a bit to get the last visible.


Eye getting ready to emerge.