ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

For the Baton Rouge people who are concerned - if you are in a well built building in an area that does not flood, and are not under tons of trees, I wouldn't recommend leaving. I was in Baker for Betsy and in Denham Springs for Andrew, Katrina, and Rita and made it through ok. Yes, there were trees that came down (some on houses), extended power outages, and flooding, but we have downed trees, shorter power outages, and flooding several times a year from bad storms that move through. My daughter and son in law who live on Galveston Island evacuated to just south of Shreveport for Rita and still were in some pretty rough weather. I don't know that Alexandria would be enough better that the evacuation process would be worth it. Just my opinion, FWIW.

I do agree that if you don't want to be in the storm at all and you are in the center of the cone, it requires a good 400 mile drive (at least) since it involves going northeast or northwest and outside the cone of uncertainty.

I'd expect hurricane force winds (sustained) up to 150 miles inland along the path (relative to its landfall angle), and tropical storm force winds (sustained) over 300 miles inland.

[HURAKAN]

My family just spoke to my aunt and she says that everything is OK in her house but the sound of the rain and wind outside is horrible. We will try to talk to her again later on.

I really feel for the poor people in Cuba right now. Where is your family located?

I wonder how the Isle of Youth faired.

My aunt and cousin are in Guanajay. From my father side, my grandparents, uncle, and cousins live in San Felipe. I have more relatives and they live in the general area.

[Downdraft]

I'd like to remind everyone especially guests that the ONLY authority on this storm is the NHC and the only authorities on evacuation are local emergency management officials. DO NOT make decisions that could affect your life based upon what you read in this or any other weather board.

[canegrl04]

Before Ktrina,I remember seeing a 'worst cse scenario' documentary regarding NOLA and hurricanes.They said a cat 5 would destroy the city,but I'm afraid it wouldn't take a hurricane much stronger than Katrina to do that.I hope EVERYONE heeds the warnings to get out of there

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS, ukmet, nogaps, gfdl and hwrf have all shifted east to NO..not good

[carversteve]

We as members and s2k posters need to stop with the doomsday post..It is truly riduculous..they know it's coming!! The only thing we can do is pray and report viable weather information..So please, for the sanity of this board...PLEASE STOP!! So instead of posting a doom and gloom post..Just take a moment to pray!

[otowntiger]

I'm located in Baton Rouge (LSU). Not a hurricane expert by any means. What's it looking like for me? Should I get the hell out of dodge? Or should I be pretty safe here?

you are far enough northeast that you shouldnt sustain heavy damage. It will be plenty windy though.
Myself, not so lucky. possibly 90-100 mph winds here in Lafayette I reckon. We are ready for it though.

If the track is exactly like the NHC has it, i.e. east side of Vermillion Bay heading NW you are right, but the slightest deviation to the right, which is entirely possible and Baton Rouge would get hit harder than Lafayette. The worst it could get for BR would be the 90-100 mph gusts that have already been mentioned. I know that is a lot, but it won't be totally devastating and most structures can withstand that kind of wind. Just get prepared for lots of downed trees, power lines, shingles ripped off, flooding etc. that you would normally expect with this kind of weather. I lived through hurricane Charley here in Orlando and we had 105 mph wind gusts. It was bad and it seemed like our roof could go at any point but we survived and Orlando was up and running within a week or two. Just lots of headaches related to no power and debris removal.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, we are getting 40mph gusts with this band here in Destin, FL now!!!

[jinftl]

whether you look at the latest model runs or even the ones before....it is time for new orleans to prepare....evacuation is necessary in all of the coastal parishes under the gun.

I have family in Metairie...i told them just because they did not flood from levee breaches with katrina in no way means that they are safe to stay.

18z GFS, ukmet, nogaps, gfdl and hwrf have all shifted east to NO..not good

[mathwhizz]

I guess some people are getting annoyed in the other threads with anyone mentioning Gustav's effects on New Orleans so maybe if we confine all the discussion to this thread, they won't get annoyed.

I'm most interested in how Gustav could compare to Katrina as far as flooding. What will the impact be if Gustov hits 100 miles west, or less than 50 miles west or directly over the city?

What areas get flooded and how will it be different than Katrina?

[soonertwister]

For the Baton Rouge people who are concerned - if you are in a well built building in an area that does not flood, and are not under tons of trees, I wouldn't recommend leaving. I was in Baker for Betsy and in Denham Springs for Andrew, Katrina, and Rita and made it through ok. Yes, there were trees that came down (some on houses), extended power outages, and flooding, but we have downed trees, shorter power outages, and flooding several times a year from bad storms that move through. My daughter and son in law who live on Galveston Island evacuated to just south of Shreveport for Rita and still were in some pretty rough weather. I don't know that Alexandria would be enough better that the evacuation process would be worth it. Just my opinion, FWIW.

I do agree that if you don't want to be in the storm at all and you are in the center of the cone, it requires a good 400 mile drive (at least) since it involves going northeast or northwest and outside the cone of uncertainty.

I'd expect hurricane force winds (sustained) up to 150 miles inland along the path (relative to its landfall angle), and tropical storm force winds (sustained) over 300 miles inland.

The NHC forecasts max winds of 80 mph more than 24 hours after landfall. This in so sissy mambie-pambie hurricane, this is the big deal. Anyone anwhere within the cone and within 50 miles of the coast should be prepared for sustained winds exceeding 100 mph at gusts significantly higher.

[pcolalight]

I read this on the Pensacola News Journal site: "Tahssa wrote:
I was just reading an amateur weather forum and somebody just mentioned that the High that was supposed to build over or near us never happened and that Gustav would now be able to recurve to the northeast for a landfall from MS to the Big Bend of Florida. How much truth to this is there or were they just trying to scare folks in Mobile/Pensacola? 8/30/2008 5:40 PM EDT on pnj.com"

Is there any truth to this?

Mary

[HurryKane]

This series explored the worst case scenarios for New Orleans, and it was written pre-K.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/content.s ... index.html

[peteywheatstraw]

The high is still expected to build but later on. Gustav is moving faster than expected so it may not be there in time to slow it down or push it west. I still think the storm will go east of New Orleans somewhere.

[peteywheatstraw]

Things not so bad relatively speaking in Havana - lots of rain but winds still not more than 35 mph, gusts to 55 at worse and the pressure's already going up.

[Sanibel]

I read this on the Pensacola News Journal site: "Tahssa wrote:
I was just reading an amateur weather forum and somebody just mentioned that the High that was supposed to build over or near us never happened and that Gustav would now be able to recurve to the northeast for a landfall from MS to the Big Bend of Florida. How much truth to this is there or were they just trying to scare folks in Mobile/Pensacola? 8/30/2008 5:40 PM EDT on pnj.com"

Is there any truth to this?

No, none. I suggest you scroll through the "Models" thread, and read some of the National Hurricane Center discussion in the "Advisory" thread. Right now they have it going just west of New Orleans and moving more west from there.

Sanibel Island is now 275 miles from Gus while he moves safely southwest of us.

[Stormcenter]

18z GFS, ukmet, nogaps, gfdl and hwrf have all shifted east to NO..not good

Thanks for the "good news". I'm sure the
good people of N.O. appreciate reading that.
I still don't understand the excitement some of
you get out this.

[Stormcenter]

We as members and s2k posters need to stop with the doomsday post..It is truly riduculous..they know it's coming!! The only thing we can do is pray and report viable weather information..So please, for the sanity of this board...PLEASE STOP!! So instead of posting a doom and gloom post..Just take a moment to pray!

Finally some sanity on this board. Thank you.

[peteywheatstraw]

You're in Baton Rouge, right? Did you happen to catch Scott Oswald on Channel 9 this evening? That's what he said about the high. Watch again at 10.

[SoupBone]

18z GFS, ukmet, nogaps, gfdl and hwrf have all shifted east to NO..not good

Thanks for the "good news". I'm sure the
good people of N.O. appreciate reading that.
I still don't understand the excitement some of
you get out this.

I'm hoping the good people of New Orleans (my neighbors to the east) are evacuating and not reading these message boards right now.