ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Stormcenter]

18z GFDL right over NO

Of course it is. I think you been predicting that with every GFDL run.
It's about time you get right.

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z GFDL right over NO

Of course it is. I think you been predicting that with every GFDL run.
It's about time you get right.

Umm..I simply use NO as a landmark..Im sure i was right on with every model post for the GFDL..

[swimaster20]

Just for clarification, the 18z GFDL is not "right over" New Orleans, it shows landfall in Terrebonne Parish while moving northwest. Although New Orleans is on the east side, it isn't a direct hit.

[george_r_1961]

Just for clarification, the 18z GFDL is not "right over" New Orleans, it shows landfall in Terrebonne Parish while moving northwest. Although New Orleans is on the east side, it isn't a direct hit.

It could be darn close to a direct hit and with the windfield expanding its likely hurricane force winds will be experienced there. When Gustav makes landfall it could expand even more and since this is a large hurricane that will get even larger the winds will take a long time to spin down. Dont focus on where the eye of this monster makes landfall. New Orleans will be in the right front quad and if Gustav jogs even a little to the right the city will be in the eyewall of a major hurricane.

[PTPatrick]

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/i ... _model.gif



FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE ONLY FORECAST WEST OF THE CONSENSUS IS NGFL AND THE NHC's TRACK. I EXPECT A RIGHTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODELS TO LANDFALL OVER LAFOURCHE/PLAQUEMINES INSTEAD OF WEST TERREBONNE AT THE 11 UPDATE...AND IF UPPER CAT 3 HOLD THIS COULD BE WORSE THAN KATRINA FOR NOLA...ALTHOUGH MS WOULD LIKELY FAIR MUCH BETTER.

[Ivanhater]

FWIW 00z bams shifted even further east..NHC light blue line

[Portastorm]

I wouldn't get too hung up on the BAM runs as we have been told by the pro mets that they are only useful for the deep tropics and weaker systems. That being said, Gustav seems to be moving just east of the NHC plot points.

[wxman57]

Throw out the BAMs, they won't see the changing steering flow in the Gulf as the high builds west across Florida and the upper low moves west. Here's what you get. Farthest east is NOGAPS (near Baton Rouge). GFDL is just east of Vermilion Bay, right over Lafayette. UKMET is off on its own in moving Gustav way too slowly and turning it back out into the Gulf. Left outliers are the Navy version of the GFDL and the NAM. All reliable models are between Lafayette and Baton Rouge. NHC track is there, too, about 1/3 of the way between Lafayette and Baton Rouge.

[Ptarmigan]

If Gustav makes landfall on Louisiana and go westward towards Texas as some models indicate, that could be a real problem for us. It could be a flooding event, which is just as bad as a wind event for us. Historically floods are considered the worst disasters.

[Ptarmigan]

Throw out the BAMs, they won't see the changing steering flow in the Gulf as the high builds west across Florida and the upper low moves west. Here's what you get. Farthest east is NOGAPS (near Baton Rouge). GFDL is just east of Vermilion Bay, right over Lafayette. UKMET is off on its own in moving Gustav way too slowly and turning it back out into the Gulf. Left outliers are the Navy version of the GFDL and the NAM. All reliable models are between Lafayette and Baton Rouge. NHC track is there, too, about 1/3 of the way between Lafayette and Baton Rouge.

I wonder if Gustav could become a rain event for Texas?

[gboudx]

I wonder if Gustav could become a rain event for Texas?

I was on a conference call with jeff this afternoon and he expressed concern for East Texas, possibly Central Texas for torrential rainfall totals. If the NHC track verifies, us in Dallas could get a quite of bit of rain from it. I don't think we'll know this phase of the storm until after landfall.

[Portastorm]

Should Gustav bend west after landfall as some of the models have suggested ... you can bet on it. We would be talking "catastrophic" rainfall in portions of east or southeast Texas, especially if the storm slows down or stalls.

And yeah, what gboudx said!

[Stormcenter]

It looks like Gustav has taken a little westward jog recently.

[MortisFL]

FWIW 00z bams shifted even further east..NHC light blue line

BAMS cant be used in this scenario, not with all the more reliable global models creating a tight consenus.

[ColdFusion]

It looks like Gustav has taken a little westward jog recently.

Not sure I see much of a westward component, but if there is, will be interesting to see if more of a N component exists when it ramps back up to near Cat 5 force.

[gboudx]

It looks like Gustav has taken a little westward jog recently.

jeff also mentioned not to watch the wobbles or stair-stepping. You must assess the motion over a 3-6 hour time period. Not sure you are wobble-watching, but just an fyi.

[Stormcenter]

It looks like Gustav has taken a little westward jog recently.

jeff also mentioned not to watch the wobbles or stair-stepping. You must assess the motion over a 3-6 hour time period. Not sure you are wobble-watching, but just an fyi.

Ok.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[mathwhizz]

It looks slightly right of track to me.

[Portastorm]

Not many outliers ... consensus once again:

[jwayne]

0z nam moves it towards tx. glad it's the nam.