ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

wzrgirl1 · #521 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:14 pm

yep models have shifted dramatically north....whew

artist · #522 Postby **artist** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:19 pm

what do you bet they shift back tomorrow? :ggreen:

#523 Postby **ericinmia** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:21 pm

artist wrote:what do you bet they shift back tomorrow?

I have a feeling the 00z models, gfs/nogaps/ukmet"already south lol"/Euro should be interesting to see. Clean new run, should make things slightly more clear!
-Eric

#524 Postby **bvigal** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:27 pm

artist wrote:what do you bet they shift back tomorrow?

I don't think we'll see the crazy loops and paths south over Cuba again. I wish Hanna would go "poof", Gustav is enough to deal with!

#525 Postby **NativeFloridaGirl** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:29 pm

ericinmia wrote:
artist wrote:what do you bet they shift back tomorrow?

I have a feeling the 00z models, gfs/nogaps/ukmet"already south lol"/Euro should be interesting to see. Clean new run, should make things slightly more clear!
-Eric

A teeny bit of consistency would be nice. They've been clear as mud so far. All these major shifts are disconcerting to say the least.

~Beth~

#526 Postby **Blown Away** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:39 pm

ericinmia wrote:
artist wrote:what do you bet they shift back tomorrow?

I have a feeling the 00z models, gfs/nogaps/ukmet"already south lol"/Euro should be interesting to see. Clean new run, should make things slightly more clear!
-Eric

Good point, I hope the 00z runs are a little easier to understand.

artist · #527 Postby **artist** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 8:59 pm

bvigal wrote:
artist wrote:what do you bet they shift back tomorrow?

I don't think we'll see the crazy loops and paths south over Cuba again. I wish Hanna would go "poof", Gustav is enough to deal with!

you and me both. We've already had more than our fair share of rain with Fay. I think we will float away if we get much more. And Gustav isn't helping the situation either. :grr:

#528 Postby **ericinmia** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:04 pm

artist wrote:
bvigal wrote:
artist wrote:what do you bet they shift back tomorrow?

I don't think we'll see the crazy loops and paths south over Cuba again. I wish Hanna would go "poof", Gustav is enough to deal with!

you and me both. We've already had more than our fair share of rain with Fay. I think we will float away if we get much more. And Gustav isn't helping the situation either.

Yeah, and were about to get another big band right now... it's already started in south dade.

Bocadude85 · #529 Postby **Bocadude85** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:05 pm

I don't this the 00z run will show anything different then the 12z

#530 Postby **ericinmia** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:15 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:I don't this the 00z run will show anything different then the 12z

Well honestly, I don't hold much hope for the GFS this year. :roll:

But the others (non gfs based) I hope will form some sort of consensus.

I think that the synoptics are a little more clear now, and will be even more so tomorrow at 00z... which makes it much easier on the models. Mainly because we don't have a system for great amounts of data asimilation, the more complex the scenario gets the worse the models perform, hence, the confidence the NHC has. There are so few bouys (even though we have some new ones), flight data, station data, etc. Many if not all the dynamic models also get some data from sat feeds, but they don't get much Upper Air data into them... hence the problem with the prediction of ULL and movement.

Wow... i'm rambling, i'll quit now...

But as a final note, I belive that most models start fresh with the 00z run, but they retain intialization information from the previous runs when creating the 06z, 12z, 18z runs. Hence, there is a slight chance we may get a clearer picture late tonight as the 00z runs come in fresh... and that the ULL is weakening and moving away....

Laters...
-Eric

artist · #531 Postby **artist** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:18 pm

[quote="ericinmia[/quote]
[/quote]

Yeah, and were about to get another big band right now... it's already started in south dade.[/quote]

Have fun with it. Ours is now over. Be prepared for lot's of rain and lightning.

Does anyone else hate the way we can only quote 3 now? Trying to figure it out takes this ole lady forever to figure it out! lol

#532 Postby **storms in NC** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:20 pm

The ULL is just about south of Hanna now. Once she is clear of the ULL I think you will see the new Hanna. If you remember Hanna formed with the ULL right next to her. So if she can do that and stay together like she has there is no telling what Hanna can or will do. That is scary.

Good night I will be back on with Gus and Hanna In the Am till it is time to go to Church.
Don't have to much fun

Deb

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

#533 Postby **ericinmia** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:31 pm

storms in NC wrote:The ULL is just about south of Hanna now. Once she is clear of the ULL I think you will see the new Hanna. If you remember Hanna formed with the ULL right next to her. So if she can do that and stay together like she has there is no telling what Hanna can or will do. That is scary.

Good night I will be back on with Gus and Hanna In the Am till it is time to go to Church.
Don't have to much fun

Deb

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

Agreed! JB was pushing that with Fay if she hadn't hit 85% of the islands in the carribean that she could have amounted to so much more. Simply look at what she did with where she tracked! Gustav is another example, he was approaching the strength of cat5, just a short time after people were talking about his possible Hispanola inspired demise. I am worried that as gfdl, hrwf suggested with Gustav... and it came to fuitition, that if/when Hannah gets free of her ball and chains that she may also make a run for the gates.

We shall see... History is not in our favor (list of storms that exploded over the bahamas...)
-Eric

Bocadude85 · #534 Postby **Bocadude85** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:32 pm

Yea but she is not looking good tonight..

#535 Postby **ericinmia** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:39 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:Yea but she is not looking good tonight..

Yeah but comon' how many times has that been said about storms that looked MUCH worse than her, and those storms came back to be some monsters (name's not necissary)&(comparison's not warranted).

#536 Postby **Trader Ron** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 10:03 pm

Latest NHC track is EAST and no "H" showing H=Hurricane.

:wink:

capepoint · #537 Postby **capepoint** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 10:13 pm

Hey, you Fl guys, we up here in NC don't want to steal your storm. You guys can have her, really! :lol:

#538 Postby **fci** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 10:29 pm

capepoint wrote:Hey, you Fl guys, we up here in NC don't want to steal your storm. You guys can have her, really!

At least from the latest models and NHC track, you may have no choice but to steal her.
It's OK......we're willing to let her go but would much prefer a much more "Fishy" track.

artist · #539 Postby **artist** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 10:35 pm

Trader Ron wrote:Latest NHC track is EAST and no "H" showing H=Hurricane.

in their extended it shows 75 kts, thus a hurricane -

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 24.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 26.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

Extremeweatherguy · #540 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 10:37 pm

artist wrote:
Trader Ron wrote:Latest NHC track is EAST and no "H" showing H=Hurricane.

in their extended it shows 75 kts, thus a hurricane -

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 24.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 26.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

Those are gusts. The sustained wind forecast is for 60 knots at hour 120...which would be a tropical storm.

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