ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HarlequinBoy]

Give it a few hours over water to recover a bit.

[wxman57]

The orange track near Baton Rouge is NOGAPS - not a very good model for hurricanes.


Hi WXMAN57,

Why is there a NOGAPS model then?

Im just asking. Im learning new things every day about this stuff.

NOGAPS wasn't designed as a hurricane model. It's designed for general use. The NAM wasn't designed as a hurricane model either, but it's still plotted for some reason. Hurricanes are a bit too complex for these models to handle.

[soonertwister]

Here is an excellent article concerning the surge of Hurricane Betsy in SE Louisiana. Since Gustav will be approaching the Louisiana coast from a near identical angle and intensity this could be what will transpire.....MGC

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/096/mwr-096-02-0118.pdf

It's amazing how close in intensity and track Gustav is projected to mimic Betsy. Betsy flooded many of the same sections of N.O. as Katrina: 9th Ward, St. Bernard, etc.

Lower 9th Ward and in particular St. Bernard Parish have had really weak protection from levee breaches and breaks. And when you look south to Plaquemines, we'll there probably aren't all that many people even there anymore. A significant number of those who chose to ride out Katrina suffered the ultimate consequences, and most of the rest were severely flooded.

I'm not feeling at all positive for any of those areas right now, and doubt that is even more than a very partial list of the areas that experience severe storm surge damage with this storm, sad to say.

[Dean4Storms]

Starting to see some deep red on IR on the western side.

[ConvergenceZone]

Is it just me, or am I already beginning to see Gustav coming back?? Click on the below link. The Reds are already on the increase and beginning to wrap, and it's lightening up a bit around the center(eye).... It couldn't be strengthening already could it?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

[Wthrman13]

In addition to the land interaction, the CIMSS upper-level shear analysis is showing ~20 kts of southerly shear over the center right now, and this is manifesting itself in restricted outflow to the south. However, looking back over the last several hours, during the RI to Cat 4 status, the shear was in the 15-20 kt range, and clearly this didn't hamper strengthening at that time. The outflow and upper-level divergence on the north side is so impressive right now, I don't foresee the shear being too much of a problem, at least in the near term and provided it doesn't increase. Thus, I expect that a run at Cat 5 tonight is likely, and see little reason to deviate from the NHC intensity forecast at this point.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Jesse, I was talking with a few others on here early this morning about the track. I said I had a bad feeling that the Grand Isle area was going to get slammed directly. Could not explain why just a gut feeling for what its worth. Still feel that way and looks like it is becoming a much more possibility.

[cpdaman]

In addition to the land interaction, the CIMSS upper-level shear analysis is showing ~20 kts of southerly shear over the center right now, and this is manifesting itself in restricted outflow to the south. However, looking back over the last several hours, during the RI to Cat 4 status, the shear was in the 15-20 kt range, and clearly this didn't hamper strengthening at that time. The outflow and upper-level divergence on the north side is so impressive right now, I don't foresee the shear being too much of a problem, at least in the near term and provided it doesn't increase. Thus, I expect that a run at Cat 5 tonight is likely, and see little reason to deviate from the NHC intensity forecast at this point.

well so long as she moves NW at 15 the relative shear would be low right?

[6SpeedTA95]

Once the storm moves inland we need it to move very rapidly OFF of louisiana, no matter what NO is going to get a LOT of rain out of this and the quicker it moves off to the north and/or west the better.

[attallaman]

Mandatory evacuation orders were issued earlier tonight by the Harrison County, Mississippi Board of Supervisors for all residents and businesses in Harrison County, Mississippi located in flood zones A and B effective by 3:00 p.m. tomorrow. This includes the cities of Pass Christian, Long Beach, Gulfport, Biloxi and D'Iberville Mississippi. I live in flood zone C in Biloxi which is less than 3 miles from the GOM but I'm not included in tonight's evacuation order.

[Ad Novoxium]

This seems to be the most similar storm from my view (I disagree on the intensity though - it was probably much stronger in the Gulf - this was 1856 after all):

May I point out that specific hurricane destroyed an island? I want to avoid doomsday scenarios, but sadly, I'm not seeing many others outside dissipation in the gulf, and that's not likely happening.

[6SpeedTA95]

PRetty substantial influx of dry air on the SW quad.

[AlabamaDave]

Here is an excellent article concerning the surge of Hurricane Betsy in SE Louisiana. Since Gustav will be approaching the Louisiana coast from a near identical angle and intensity this could be what will transpire.....MGC

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/096/mwr-096-02-0118.pdf

It's amazing how close in intensity and track Gustav is projected to mimic Betsy. Betsy flooded many of the same sections of N.O. as Katrina: 9th Ward, St. Bernard, etc.

Lower 9th Ward and in particular St. Bernard Parish have had really weak protection from levee breaches and breaks. And when you look south to Plaquemines, we'll there probably aren't all that many people even there anymore. A significant number of those who chose to ride out Katrina suffered the ultimate consequences, and most of the rest were severely flooded.

I'm not feeling at all positive for any of those areas right now, and doubt that is even more than a very partial list of the areas that experience severe storm surge damage with this storm, sad to say.

I feel so sick for the people of SE Louisiana. My in-laws lost their home in St. Bernard Parish to Katrina. Thank God they didn't rebuild there. I can't imagine being one of those who chose to rebuild and facing this possibility a mere three years later. This seems beyond impossible. I keep thinking something will change between now and Monday and spare the region the expected disaster.

[PhillyWX]

In addition to the land interaction, the CIMSS upper-level shear analysis is showing ~20 kts of southerly shear over the center right now, and this is manifesting itself in restricted outflow to the south. However, looking back over the last several hours, during the RI to Cat 4 status, the shear was in the 15-20 kt range, and clearly this didn't hamper strengthening at that time. The outflow and upper-level divergence on the north side is so impressive right now, I don't foresee the shear being too much of a problem, at least in the near term and provided it doesn't increase. Thus, I expect that a run at Cat 5 tonight is likely, and see little reason to deviate from the NHC intensity forecast at this point.

Agreed...the shear is there and in a less favorable environment would weaken this system but the evacuation and outflow is just breathtaking in terms of presentation.

I don't see this being a 5 at landfall as heat content will lower before the coast but a high 3, possibly a 4 at landfall (in my unprofessional opinion) is certainly possible.

[soonertwister]

PRetty substantial influx of dry air on the SW quad.

I noticed that too, but I question if that size gulp of relatively dry air will ever reach the core of this storm, given the bread of the core system. I suspect as it is drawn in it will moisten until it's only slighly more dry than the air around it. Might slightly weaken the storm, however.

[6SpeedTA95]

In addition to the land interaction, the CIMSS upper-level shear analysis is showing ~20 kts of southerly shear over the center right now, and this is manifesting itself in restricted outflow to the south. However, looking back over the last several hours, during the RI to Cat 4 status, the shear was in the 15-20 kt range, and clearly this didn't hamper strengthening at that time. The outflow and upper-level divergence on the north side is so impressive right now, I don't foresee the shear being too much of a problem, at least in the near term and provided it doesn't increase. Thus, I expect that a run at Cat 5 tonight is likely, and see little reason to deviate from the NHC intensity forecast at this point.

Thanks for the post about the shear. I was about to post the same thing, its quite noticable and has allowed some dry air to get fairly close to the center of circulation. I also do not see a 5 at land fall as you correctly pointed out the TCHP is substantially lower close to shore than it is in the southern and center of the GOM.

[tallywx]

PRetty substantial influx of dry air on the SW quad.

Gustav is struggling right now. Radar shows her entraining a huge gobble of dry air SE of the eye, with the southern eyewall on the verge of collapse.

[Stephanie]

I hope that a lot of people evacuated from Key West and the others. Gustav is too close for comfort to them for me.

IMHO, I don't think that Gustav will have that much of a problem coming back to almost where he was previously. Nothing has seemed to have knocked him down so far.

[GoneBabyGone]

Where is this radar you are all watching? I'm interested.

[Weatherfreak000]

Still East of all forecast points....they need to shift the track...landfall looks doomsday for me.


Im speechless.