ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

PRetty substantial influx of dry air on the SW quad.

Gustav is struggling right now. Radar shows her entraining a huge gobble of dry air SE of the eye, with the southern eyewall on the verge of collapse.

It's not struggling at all. It WAS struggling while it was over land, but not anymore....Just watch it over the next few hours, and then you'll see what I mean.

[tallywx]

PRetty substantial influx of dry air on the SW quad.

Gustav is struggling right now. Radar shows her entraining a huge gobble of dry air SE of the eye, with the southern eyewall on the verge of collapse.

I do not see that at all. He looks very much intact and poised to strengthen once again.

Gustav 1 1/2 hours ago:


Gustav now:


Notice how dry air has profusely overtaken the SE-NE inflow region, and how the CDO is largely eroded and elongated from N-S. Also notice the much lower reflectivity on the southern eyewall, with no CDO precip. buffering it.

[KLP124]

The weather channel (i know, i know) just mentioned that Houston/Galveston may have to be inluded in the hurricane watch area because of a possible turn to the west. Are any of you seeing anything like that? From what I've heard all day, everyone's thinking the westward turn (if it happens) will be well after landfall...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I was listening to a met being interviewed on a New Orleans radio station earlier this afternoon. She said that if/when gustav becomes a cat 5 he could actually erode the northwestern edge of the high which would lead to a little further easterly landfall. Reasoning was because the high is weaker and Gustav a much stronger low pressure system that is spinning counter-clockwise. Any fact to this. Not heard of this before.

[Brent]

Note: The 8pm Sunday forecast is 135 kt which is NOT a Cat 5. Weather Underground is wrong.

[cpdaman]

PRetty substantial influx of dry air on the SW quad.

Gustav is struggling right now. Radar shows her entraining a huge gobble of dry air SE of the eye, with the southern eyewall on the verge of collapse.

I do not see that at all. He looks very much intact and poised to strengthen once again.

Gustav 1 1/2 hours ago:


Gustav now:


Notice how dry air has profusely overtaken the SE-NE inflow region, and how the CDO is largely eroded and elongated from N-S. Also notice the much lower reflectivity on the southern eyewall, with no CDO precip. buffering it.[/quote]


ummm are you SURE that is not looking like that because it is getting out of the radar RANGE on sw side Cmon

[tolakram]

0300Z

[Downdraft]

Where is this dry air? Look at the water vapor it's just not there. I see some shear but the ventilation is good to the north it won't slow this system up at bit. Cuba barely shook this system up and it's got a lot of warm water in front of it.

[Portastorm]

The weather channel (i know, i know) just mentioned that Houston/Galveston may have to be inluded in the hurricane watch area because of a possible turn to the west. Are any of you seeing anything like that? From what I've heard all day, everyone's thinking the westward turn (if it happens) will be well after landfall...

The only reason I can think of why they might say this tonight is that the 0z run of the NAM shows the storm putting the brakes on just off the Louisiana coast and then drifting westward. But remember folks, it's the NAM model and as Wxman57 just posted, it ain't worth all that much in considering hurricanes.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/fp0_072.shtml

[tallywx]

I don't see any dry air.

beat me to it.. dont see any either



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I've taken your image and encircled the region where it appears that some mid-level dry air is being entrained. Granted, I'm not saying that Gustav won't be able to cough that out quite readily once he gets over warmer water, but I do think it's a hiccup.

[Nexus]

The convection that weakened first as it crossed land, is now on the south of the storm - hence the weakness there. Regardless, convection seems to be refiring in the western quads.

[Downdraft]

If I had to rely on the NAM with a tropical system I'd move to Montana.

[tallywx]

ummm are you SURE that is not looking like that because it is getting out of the radar RANGE on sw side Cmon

If anything the suspect region that seems to have "dried up" on radar is closer to the radar site now than it was 1 1/2 hours ago.

[GoneBabyGone]

Note: The 8pm Sunday forecast is 135 kt which is NOT a Cat 5. Weather Underground is wrong.

In the grand scheme of things, is this forecast better or worse for NO than the previous forecast?

[Ixolib]

Mandatory evacuation orders were issued earlier tonight by the Harrison County, Mississippi Board of Supervisors for all residents and businesses in Harrison County, Mississippi located in flood zones A and B effective by 3:00 p.m. tomorrow. This includes the cities of Pass Christian, Long Beach, Gulfport, Biloxi and D'Iberville Mississippi. I live in flood zone C in Biloxi which is less than 3 miles from the GOM but I'm not included in tonight's evacuation order.

Lots of BLUES (ZONE A) and YELLOWS (ZONE B) on these maps of Harrison County!!! My house is right on the cusp of Zone A and Zone B, just south of Biloxi Bay...

[jeff]

The hurricane will intensify again...I do not see any need for the Watch to be shifted W...in fact I could see the watch lowered over to Sabine Pass.

[tallywx]

Note: The 8pm Sunday forecast is 135 kt which is NOT a Cat 5. Weather Underground is wrong.

In the grand scheme of things, is this forecast better or worse for NO than the previous forecast?

Worse. Track is closer to NO. This might put them in the right-front quad. with a taste of the eyewall or eyewall-driven surge. this is BAD.

[ConvergenceZone]

Based upon the last update, looks like the NHC is growing more confident that this is going to landfall as a Cat4, although they lessened the time that this will be a Cat5....Wow, this is going to be a headline maker for a very long time to come. The wind is bad enough, but the flooding will be historical based upon the speed of this system once it reaches land.

[curtadams]

The dry air that matters to hurricanes is at mid-levels and doesn't really show up on WV. The hurricane outflow will completely hide any mid dry air in a cane like Gustav.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I was listening to a met being interviewed on a New Orleans radio station earlier this afternoon. She said that if/when gustav becomes a cat 5 he could actually erode the northwestern edge of the high which would lead to a little further easterly landfall. Reasoning was because the high is weaker and Gustav a much stronger low pressure system that is spinning counter-clockwise. Any fact to this. Not heard of this before.

Hey Jeff, have you heard of this before?