ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[soonertwister]

Note: The 8pm Sunday forecast is 135 kt which is NOT a Cat 5. Weather Underground is wrong.

135 kts is 155.25 mph. Cat 5 is 155 mph and up.

Cat 5 is 136 kt (156 mph) and up.

In practice, they never declare a cat-5 without confirmed 140 knot winds. (161 mph)

[jdjaguar]

Note: The 8pm Sunday forecast is 135 kt which is NOT a Cat 5. Weather Underground is wrong.

135 kts is 155.25 mph. Cat 5 is 155 mph and up.

Cat 5 is 136 kt (156 mph) and up.

methinks we are splitting hairs 155.25 versus 156...both CATastrophic. 5 or not.

[capepoint]

TWC keeps hinting they see "signs" hanna may go further WEST on tropic update last two hours

My unprofessional uneducated opinion is.....no way. If anything, land interaction just prior to landfall will bump it east a little. It's strong enough now that not many atmospheric things are going to turn it.

[Weather Watcher]

Note: The 8pm Sunday forecast is 135 kt which is NOT a Cat 5. Weather Underground is wrong.

135 kts is 155.25 mph. Cat 5 is 155 mph and up.

Not according to this chart...
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807_5day.html#a_topad

[soonertwister]

I've never in my life seen a hurricane classified cat-5 with 135 knot winds.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

[HurryKane]

Can't find the 11 PM discussion anywhere

[GeneratorPower]

Can't find the 11 PM discussion anywhere

It has not been released yet. It's late.

[senorpepr]

Can't find the 11 PM discussion anywhere

It may not have been issued yet...

[CrazyC83]

Either way, I fully expect a Cat 5 tomorrow as it crosses the Loop Current.

[Sanibel]

I need a clear eye because my straight edge measure continues to be near N.O. on present extrapolated track.

[rockyman]

it's out

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Wouldn't this shear map support a weakening Gustav over the next several days?

[rockyman]

nothing in the discussion to indicate a more westerly path hinted by The Weather Channel

[cheezyWXguy]

You all cant be serious about the degeneration of this storm....it is doing no such thing. You cant really expect a storm to come out of land as perfectly as it went in. Even the nhc showed a slight weakening over land in cuba when this was at 125mph. This is wasting no time though. Reds now almost totally surround the eye, a quality this did NOT have consistently before landfall. You can see in just the last few frames even more convection developing. Tomorrow you all will wake up to a storm that is either strengthening or getting ready to strengthen. I am definitely predicting a cat5 tomorrow, assuming there is no unexpected shear or an ewrc.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I was listening to a met being interviewed on a New Orleans radio station earlier this afternoon. She said that if/when gustav becomes a cat 5 he could actually erode the northwestern edge of the high which would lead to a little further easterly landfall. Reasoning was because the high is weaker and Gustav a much stronger low pressure system that is spinning counter-clockwise. Any fact to this. Not heard of this before.

Hey Jeff, have you heard of this before?

Sometimes intense hurricanes can bump ridges...but really not erode them. Regardless...we are within about 36-48 hours of landfall...the final solution is very clear...SC LA between Vermillion Bay over toward Houma...impacts will be the same...no more real need to watch every model run...NHC track as been very consisent for since Friday 400pm.

Time now to get the heck out of those surge zones.

Thanks Jeff, appreciate it. My concern is if it comes in about 50 miles or so further east, the eye will probably move right over us after making landfall. It is going to be a long 48 hrs.

[canetracker]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
Geesh I am getting concerned. I have high elevation here but the winds are my fear.

[tallywx]

Notice how dry air has profusely overtaken the SE-NE inflow region, and how the CDO is largely eroded and elongated from N-S. Also notice the much lower reflectivity on the southern eyewall, with no CDO precip. buffering it.

and NHC confirms my thoughts in their 11 p.m. disco:

"THE PRESENCE OF
THIS SHEAR IS SUPPORTED BY RADAR DATA FROM THE KEY WEST WSR-88D...
WHICH CURRENTLY SHOWS A WEAK SOUTHERN EYEWALL AND LITTLE
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE EYEWALL. "

[cpdaman]

nothing in the discussion to indicate a more westerly path hinted by The Weather Channel

ya did you hear that to? the guy (not sure his name) is just butchering things IMO , he just mentioned hanna and cuba and i though this idea died yesterday or at least the liklihood of it.

[soonertwister]

You all cant be serious about the degeneration of this storm....it is doing no such thing. You cant really expect a storm to come out of land as perfectly as it went in. Even the nhc showed a slight weakening over land in cuba when this was at 125mph. This is wasting no time though. Reds now almost totally surround the eye, a quality this did NOT have consistently before landfall. You can see in just the last few frames even more convection developing. Tomorrow you all will wake up to a storm that is either strengthening or getting ready to strengthen. I am definitely predicting a cat5 tomorrow, assuming there is no unexpected shear or an ewrc.

The pressure rose very little over Cuba. I wouldn't be shocked if Gustav went under 900 mb tomorrow.

[soonertwister]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
Geesh I am getting concerned. I have high elevation here but the winds are my fear.

If you have any doubts about your preparedness for very strong winds, get out. Don't wait long.