ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[shah8]

I am pretty sure that Scorpion was being facetious. You know... Baghdad Bob and all...

[Extremeweatherguy]

It's sure falling apart now..

I can't tell if you are being sarcastic or if you are being serious.

[Scorpion]

Umm it looks to be intensifying pretty well now.

[tallywx]

Meteorologist on WWL said it would take a 100-200 mile shift east from the current NHC track to see "catastrophic" damage in New Orleans. How is he getting that? The track as it stands is only like 60 miles west of NO.

Are you serious? He acually said that?

Yeah. I think his name is Jonathan Myers. Live stream right now. He said that it would have to take more of a Katrina-like track to see catastrophic damage in parts of New Orleans because it takes N. winds off of the lake to push water into the city. Apparently he's placing a lot of trust in the southern levees in holding off storm surge. I'm not sure that's a good idea right now considering they've never been tested.

[Chacor]

Everyone who is in the following situations MUST evacuate:

1) If you are south of I-10/I-12 between Beaumont, Texas and Pascagoula, Mississippi. Regardless of your base elevation (and few places there are above the potential surge), you would get stranded in practically an island for days or weeks with no chance for help if you get a direct hit.

2) If you are less than 25 feet above sea level in Louisiana or Mississippi, or 15 feet in Southeast Texas or Alabama, or 5 feet in the Florida Panhandle. There are spots where the surge line crosses that corridor, and you will still be in danger.

3) If your house cannot withstand wind gusts of 120 mph. This is a no-brainer, as mobile homes and weak structures will not withstand the winds even with a glancing blow. Not to mention the tornado threat.

4) If you live in a river flood plain. Not the greatest threat in coastal areas, but river flooding is always an issue with heavy rain in inland areas, even hundreds of miles inland.

Based on the NHC's wind speed probability products, the following (selected) U.S. cities have x chance of tropical-storm force winds in the next 5 days. These probabilities will increase as the storm moves closer. Not all the cities are listed here, so consult the forecast for your nearest city.

My personal suggestion is that anyone with a 40% chance or higher of TS force winds as of now should evacuate, because as the storm approaches the percentage is only going to get higher.

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... ONT12.KNHC

65% or higher chance of TS force winds in next 5 days
Mobile, Alabama — 68% (15% chance of hurricane force winds)
Gulfport, Mississippi — 81% (25%)
Buras, Louisiana — 91% (47%)
New Orleans — 88% (40%)
Baton Rouge, Louisiana — 83% (33%)
New Iberia, Louisiana — 78% (33%)

40–64% chance of TS force winds in next 5 days
Pensacola, Florida — 54%
Jackson, Mississippi — 59%
Shreveport, Louisiana — 42%
Port Arthur, Texas — 49%

Other significant values:
Houston 30% chance of TS winds
Galveston, TX 36% chance of TS winds
Panama City, FL 34% chance of TS winds

Please, use the wind speeds probability advisory — it's very helpful.

[6SpeedTA95]

I want to get peoples opinions on this. I live in Ascension Parish which is just south of Baton Rouge. Anyway our local tv met said we should only experience 35-40 mph sustained winds with gusts reaching 60. Seems pretty low considering how close the center of Gustav will pass, especially if he comes in 50 or so miles further east which then the eye would pass right over me. To help out the I live about 90 miles due north of Cocodrie(as close to coast as can get) which is 30 miles south of Houma

No one really knows, sounds like he's basing it off of historical statistics. Lets assume for a second a worst case scenario if that helps you plan. Lets say it comes ashore just south of NO as a cat5 storm which is possible but to me seems very unlikely. Then by the time it reaches baton rouge you'd likely experience strong cat2 winds, probably 110mph sustained winds. If it comes on shore as a strong 3 or weak 4 which does seem very likely then you'll probably see sustained winds in the 90 mph range as it makes its way to baton rouge.

Now if it comes onshore at its projected path, that would put it over land slightly longer and put the storm slightly further away from baton rouge. If it comes ashore as a strong cat3 that would put you guys seeing sustained winds in the 70mph range I would suspect. Hopefully this give you some idea.

I think he was probably under estimating a bit.

[HurricaneRobert]

One can only hope

[MisUndrstd]

To answer your question 6SpeedTA95 to the best of my ability. Yes, they always call the evacuation for people in low lying areas and mobile homes first. Those evcuations are almost always mandatory even though at times people choose to ignore them. I know here where I live we have zones A, B and C. They try to evacuate in stages so as to prevent a back log of traffic but it doesnt always work that way. I hope that answers your question.

[TSmith274]

Couple quick questions before I evacuate... 1) What is the likelyhood that the shear keeps up or increases to put a cap on Gustav's intensity? 2) Is there any chance at all that these eastward trends will continue to perhaps east of the mouth of the Mississippi River?

Thanks... I'll check back every few minutes before I leave.

[6SpeedTA95]

Umm it looks to be intensifying pretty well now.

Where are you getting these updated IR/WV shots so quickly? NHC updates every half hour.

[jinftl]

CNN met showed map indicating that Gustav will be passing over or very near the infamous loop current tomorrow. If he wanted to become a cat 5, history shows his track tomorrow would be the right one to take.

The outter bands on the west side of the storm are contracting because of the wind shear. It looks rather unimpressive on the WV loop compared with earlier today.

Wouldn't it be something if we woke up tomorrow and the storm looked like an absolute mess, really dismantled with more shear than excpected, and with no signs of organizing?? , hehe...While I don't think that will happen, ya never know... There was a storm, I think it was a few years ago(the name escapes me) that entered the gulf and suppose to have been a horrible storm, and conditions in the gulf did a number on the storm that just weren't expected, and the storm didn't really amount to much... I'll look through my archives to see if I can find it.

That would be really good...but it does seem unlikely.

[Bunkertor]

Just wanted to stop in and say Hello. It doesn't look good. Looks like Lafayette. I'm too upset to analyze and pinpoint this system. Ya'll have fun tracking the system minute by minute. I just can't do it. Going to Picayune tomorrow and maybe Atlanta after that if the City of New Orleans closes down for a spell. Peace.....

Good luck, dude !

[AlabamaDave]

Meteorologist on WWL said it would take a 100-200 mile shift east from the current NHC track to see "catastrophic" damage in New Orleans. How is he getting that? The track as it stands is only like 60 miles west of NO.

Yeah, I agree with you, that makes no sense. A landfall from the SE just slightly north of the mouth of the Miss. would be horrible, and that's only about 60 miles off from west to east (or actually more like 40 if you go directly perpendicular to the projected path near landfall.

The current NHC track has the eye passing over Houma, which is only 45 miles from downtown New Orleans. If the met on WWL said that, he's an absolute idiot.

[Ixolib]

It's sure falling apart now..

I can't tell if you are being sarcastic or if you are being serious.

Lookin' at THAT pic, he's surely being sarcastic!!!

[Category 5]

Umm it looks to be intensifying pretty well now.

Just 6 minutes ago

It's sure falling apart now..

[physicx07]

I want to get peoples opinions on this. I live in Ascension Parish which is just south of Baton Rouge. Anyway our local tv met said we should only experience 35-40 mph sustained winds with gusts reaching 60. Seems pretty low considering how close the center of Gustav will pass, especially if he comes in 50 or so miles further east which then the eye would pass right over me. To help out the I live about 90 miles due north of Cocodrie(as close to coast as can get) which is 30 miles south of Houma

I'm not saying he's right, but keep in mind that the wind radii over land will be significantly less than the radii over water. If the track they have now is absolutely correct, I would think your winds would be a little higher than that, but not very much. Probably sustained 45 and for a relatively brief period, gusts to 70-75.

edit: OK, maybe what I put is a little on the low side...but I meant to say that over land wind drops off pretty fast.

[vbhoutex]

I want to get peoples opinions on this. I live in Ascension Parish which is just south of Baton Rouge. Anyway our local tv met said we should only experience 35-40 mph sustained winds with gusts reaching 60. Seems pretty low considering how close the center of Gustav will pass, especially if he comes in 50 or so miles further east which then the eye would pass right over me. To help out the I live about 90 miles due north of Cocodrie(as close to coast as can get) which is 30 miles south of Houma

Sounds pretty accurate to me if Gustav goes in on the currently projected track. It could be a little low, but not much. I think your bigger worry would be amouont of rainfall and associated flooding.

[jasons2k]

He was being sarcastic. It's already reorganizing and he had just previously posted (accurately) the eye is clearing again

[6SpeedTA95]

To answer your question 6SpeedTA95 to the best of my ability. Yes, they always call the evacuation for people in low lying areas and mobile homes first. Those evcuations are almost always mandatory even though at times people choose to ignore them. I know here where I live we have zones A, B and C. They try to evacuate in stages so as to prevent a back log of traffic but it doesnt always work that way. I hope that answers your question.

Ahh that makes me feel a bit better as I know that they started evacs quite a bit earlier in the day. So at least those in the most danger should have had a chance to get out.

[alicia83]

Meteorologist on WWL said it would take a 100-200 mile shift east from the current NHC track to see "catastrophic" damage in New Orleans. How is he getting that? The track as it stands is only like 60 miles west of NO.

Are you serious? He acually said that?

I watched that station. Made me sick. No sooner than Nagin was off, one of their forecasters was playing down the storm. It's like they were focusing on the black line from earlier, and saying what damage could be expected and where as if it was carved in stone, and without giving any nod to the possibility of any slight deviation from that forecasted path.

Nagin said in so many words, any bets on the levies holding were off.